Why, Despite Everything, Bakhmut Still Holds

The Ukrainians appear to feeding just enough fresh troops into the Bakhmut area to slow the Russians, extract severe casualties and prepare the way for a broader counterattack once they have received all their new weapons. We have seen this before, at Mariupol in April and at Severodonetsk in July.

In the meantime, the Russians seem unable to muster their forces in such a way as to finally overcome the outnumbered Ukrainians.  

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

The obvious assumption was that Ukraine was planning to withdraw its forces from the city under cover of darkness. That didn’t happen. As of Wednesday in Ukraine, Bakhmut holds, and according to at least one official source, more Ukrainian forces are on their way in. Bakhmut is at a logistically simple location. Russia can unload men and artillery there with an ease it enjoys at few other points along the line. That’s precisely why they keep attacking at Bakhmut—because they can.(But) despite repeated attempts, Russian forces south of Bakhmut have still not been able to cross the T0504 highway and approach the western end of the road of life.

On Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning in Ukraine, there was clearly heavy fighting going on around Bakhmut. The counterattack that had supposedly pushed Russian forces away was clearly nothing but hopeful rumors; Russian forces were continuing to drive south from the area between Yahidne and Berkhivka, and reports at the end of the day placed Russian troops within 1 km of the vital “road of life” connecting Bakhmut to forces outside the city.

Bakhmut. Open image in another tab for a larger view.

The map above is actually more reflective of where things stood at the end of the day on Tuesday. It doesn’t reflect changes due to fighting overnight or on Wednesday morning, because I don’t have the information to accurately map those changes.

Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from the eastern third of the city, Russia appears to have secured the complex of roads to the north that had become the “hell intersection” and there has been renewed fighting in the south. Operational security was tightened on Tuesday evening, and, the obvious assumption was that Ukraine was planning to withdraw its forces from the city under cover of darkness.

That didn’t happen. As of Wednesday in Ukraine, Bakhmut holds, and according to at least one official source, more Ukrainian forces are on their way in.

The situation around Bakhmut hasn’t just appeared to be critical for the last month, it has been critical. After Russia occupied the town of Soledar to the north in January, it set up a situation in which Russia could both attack Bakhmut from the north and potentially encircle the city from that direction. Then, at the beginning of February, Russia managed to capture the town of Klishchiivka to the south, including a point of high ground that seemed to position Russian forces to push further west.

Just days into February, the M03 highway on the north, and the T0504 highway on the south were both under fire control from Russian positions. Video showed that Ukraine still made runs down each road (until a downed bridge stopped traffic on the T0504), and Ukrainian armor confronted Russian troops that tried to cross the M03 in mid-month, but for any series transport of men and materiel in or out of Bakhmut, Ukraine was reduced to a single, smaller paved highway, one that runs through the village of Khromove before joining another highway at the town of Chasiv Yar. That road became Bakhmut’s “road of life.”

Russia seemed absolutely aware of this weakness and immediately announced that it was moving for Chasiv Yar. In fact, Russian sources—including state media—reported that it had already taken Chasiv Yar. Instead, Ukrainian forces near Ivaniske successfully threw Russia back to that hill near Klishchiivka. Despite repeated attempts, Russian forces south of Bakhmut have still not been able to cross the T0504 highway and approach the western end of the road of life.

The big threat has been, and likely remains, that Russian push from the north. While descriptions in the media insist on calling it “pincers closing around Bakhmut,” for the most part, the southern line has been stagnant for the last month. Movement on the north has threatened to cut off access and effectively encircle the city.

The pro-Ukraine Telegram channel Deep State called the Russian assault on the north and east of Bakhmut on Wednesday morning “colossal.” Even so, there are also reports that Ukraine engaged with Russian forces at almost every point of the line, especially in that area around Yahidne on the north, and regained some of the territory lost in the last few days. Deep State is also reporting, incredibly, that as many as 4,500 civilians remain in Bakhmut, including 48 children, despite months-long efforts to get them to evacuate.

Both Ukrainian and Russian planes and helicopters were active over the city on Tuesday and Wednesday. Russia may now believe it has incapacitated Ukrainian anti-aircraft positions in the city as they seem to be flying many more sorties and striking locations closer to central Bakhmut.

What happens next is currently confusing—and that’s probably on purpose. At around midnight Eastern time, the Ukrainian military indicated that they were sending more forces into Bakhmut. Three hours later,  and advisor to President Zelenskyy indicated that Ukraine was considering “strategically pulling back” and said “We’re not going to sacrifice all of our people just for nothing.”

The feeling on some Telegram channels is that Ukraine has been continuing to hold at Bakhmut because they feel Russia’s assault is close to culmination — that if they can hold out just a little longer, not only will it force Russia to continue expending huge numbers of men, it will leave the Russian force so depleted that Ukraine can mount an effective counteroffensive. However, analysts have declared that “Russia’s assault on Bakhmut has culminated” since well before the end of 2022.

Bakhmut is at a logistically simple location. Russia can unload men and artillery there with an ease it enjoys at few other points along the line. That’s precisely why they keep attacking at Bakhmut—because they can. Those same logistical factors make it unlikely that the assault on Bakhmut would culminate in the historic sense without a collapse of Russian defenses at other points coming first.

Overnight, Polish television reported that both U.S. Bradley fighting vehicles and German Leopard 2 tanks were approaching Bakhmut. One DPR commander said on Telegram that Leopards were already in the area and engaging with Russian forces north of the city. All of these accounts are, to put it mildly, extremely unlikely. The first Ukrainian crews just finished training on the Bradley yesterday. The first Leopards aren’t due to reach Ukraine before the end of the month. There is no indication that new Western tanks or fighting vehicles are being directed to this area.

It would be nice to think that Gandalf is going to appear over the hill, leading the forces of Rohan to relieve the siege of Bakhmut. But whether on a white horse or a Challenger tank, this is extremely unlikely. Ukraine has fought their way through another day. They still have access to the road of life. Whether they use that road to bring people in or send people out is a terribly difficult decision, and none of us outside the battle have the information needed to make that call.