Ukraine Hits Crimea With Both Naval and Aerial Drone Attacks

The purpose of the attacks is to degrade Russian logistical capabilities, divert military resources from the front to defense of vulnerable rear areas and to create psychological uncertainty for the occupiers stationed there. JL 

Howard Altman reports in The Drive:

Although it’s 140 miles from the front lines, the city of Sevastopol on the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula came under another Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessel (USV) and aerial drone attack. This is the second USV and aerial drone combined attack on Sevastopol in six months. These drones (can) autonomously navigate to their target area and then be remotely controlled within line-of-sight in the target's vicinity. Wednesday's attack on Sevastopol was the latest in a long series of Ukrainian strikes on the peninsula. "These attacks make Crimea untenable for the Russian Black Sea Fleet (Sevastopol), the Russian Air Force (Saki), Russian missile and drone launchers and logistics (Dzankoy).”

Although it’s about 140 miles from the front lines, the city of Sevastopol on the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula came under another Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessel (USV) and aerial drone attack Wednesday, according to Russian government officials and media and a Ukrainian Telegram channel.

Video emerging on social media showed a large explosion, what appeared to be an object near the entrance to the harbor — possibly a USV — and the response of Russian air defenses to the aerial drones.

Video shows what appears to be Russian defenses shooting into the sky and at the water's surface. A tracer round can be seen fired toward the surface at the 15-second mark. A second later, it appears to ricochet at a steep angle and then strike something, likely an object on shore or a ship, that results in a large explosion. We have to stress that this is what the video appears to show. Its low quality and the low-light setting could hide other details that could make the ricochet then explosion a coincidence, with the blast brought on by a form of attack or by successfully engaging an explosive-laden drone boat.

There were videos showing other angles of the incident posted on social media as well. While it is unclear what damage was caused in this latest attack, it is likely to further increase tension on the peninsula, which has been occupied by Russia since 2014 and targeted for liberation by Ukrainian officials. According to one Russian media outlet, maritime transportation around Sevastopol was stopped as a result of the attack.

“In the early morning, our fleet repelled an attack by surface drones,” Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Crimean occupation governor, reported Wednesday on his Telegram channel.

“In total, three objects have been destroyed,” he wrote. “They tried to penetrate the bay, our sailors fired at them from small arms. Also worked our air defense on an air target."

“The warships were not damaged,” Razvozhayev wrote. However, he said the exploding USVs damaged windows in a building but added that no one was hurt.

“Our military confidently and calmly repulsed the attack of enemy drones on Sevastopol,” Razvozhayev wrote. “The situation is under control. All operational services at the ready. Trust only official information.”

“According to eyewitnesses, fire is visible in the sea bay of Sevastopol,” the Russian Baza news agency reported on its Telegram channel Wednesday. “Apparently, it's a marine drone on fire. The movement of maritime transport has been stopped in the city.”

Two Russian sailors were honored by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu for firing at the aerial drones attacking Sevastopol today.

“'From 4:00 am to 5:56 am today, there was an attempt to hit Russian facilities in Sevastopol by drones,” Shoigu said Wednesday in Moscow at a Defense Ministry Board Session.

“All three aerial vehicles have been neutralized. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that two aerial vehicles were shot down by Senior Sailor Marina A. Faleeva and Chief Starshina Tatyana V. Tseluiko. I would like to give instructions to present the women with awards and, in accordance with our decisions, to give money reward for destroying enemy vehicles.”

The Ukrainian Crimean Wind Telegram channel offered a timeline of the incident that roughly coincided with the Russian Defense Ministry version but with more details:

• The first explosion was heard at about 4:30 and was not very loud.
• At 4:46 a strong roar was heard in the central region of Sevastopol. From the shock wave in the apartments, windows and doors trembled, cars howled. At the same time, Sevastopol residents note that at the moment they do not see any smoke, they do not hear any sirens of special vehicles.
• Three such explosions were heard with an interval of 10-15 minutes.
• 5:44 - A new explosion sound is reported.
• 5:53 - Sevastopol residents say that automatic bursts are heard in the city. It is believed that there is shooting at the UAV.
• 6:00 - Shots and roar are still regularly heard in the sea bay. Sevastopol residents report that ships of the Black Sea Fleet are operating in the waters.
• Smoke is nowhere to be seen above the city.
• 6:13 - The city is noisy again. It is reported about the active work of air defense.

Wednesday's attack on Sevastopol was just the latest in a long series of Ukrainian strikes on the peninsula. On Monday, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claimed that an attack on the city of Dzhankoy in the northern Crimean peninsula destroyed Kalibr missiles.

And this is the second USV and aerial drone combined attack on Sevastopol in six months. The city was hit by a similar large-scale attack in October. You can read more about that operation here.

Russian media outlets also claimed there was a Ukrainian 'kamikaze' drone attack on Sheskharis Harbor in Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in November. This was supported by video evidence.

It has been widely posited that Ukraine's USVs were controlled beyond line-of-sight via the SpaceX Starlink system, but company owner Elon Musk - apparently worried about the "escalatory effect" of Kyiv's USV attacks - has now opted to limit how Starlink works, according to The Economist.

"Starlink now uses geofencing to block the use of its terminals—not only above Russian-occupied territory inside Ukraine, but also, according to a Ukrainian military intelligence source, over water and when the receiver is moving at speeds above 100km per hour," the publication reported. “You put it on a boat at sea and it will simply stop working,” that source said.

There are other ways to potentially employ these drones, including having them autonomously navigate to their target area and then remotely controlling them within line-of-sight by an individual in the target's vicinity, that you can read more about in our deep dive on the first Sevastopol attack here.

Regardless of the success of these attacks, they are “a demonstration of how Ukraine can start making Crimea untenable...the precursor to liberating it from Russia,” Ben Hodges, a retired Army lieutenant general who commanded U.S. Army Europe, told The War Zone.

“I can only assume that they are doing this to disrupt or damage Russian capabilities, eg destroying missiles on a train or truck, to test their own drone and long-range strike capabilities ahead of the coming offensive, to seize the initiative and get the Russians on the back foot, and perhaps to demonstrate to the White House that this is a feasible concept,” Hodges said. “And of course a big psychological effect - positive for Ukrainian citizens who are getting hit every day in their homes and negative and worrying for the Russians.” 

At nearly 17,000 square miles in size, “Crimea is almost exactly the same size as Massachusetts,” Hodges noted. “There is nowhere to hide on Crimea. All the key military sites and facilities are well-known to the Ukrainian General Staff.  They just need the capabilities to strike these sites with precision. That’s how they make Crimea untenable for the Russian Black Sea Fleet (Sevastopol), the Russian Air Force (Saki), Russian missile and drone launchers, and Russian logistics and airfield (Dzankoy).”