The most likely reasons are that Russia has run out of troops and weapons (see "Russian lolipop" tank turret to the right) and that they are now attempting to conserve at least some of their forces for the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive. JL
Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:
On Saturday morning, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Army reported that Russia had conducted 59 assaults on Ukrainian positions along the front line. That number was the lowest for any complete day in March, but it was also part of a trend. Overall the number of assaults staged by Russia each day appears to be declining. That’s not just true in the areas where fighting has been relatively lower over the last few months, but even in hotspots like Bakhmut. In general this whole “Russian offensive” seems to have stalled out.
A potentially worrisome snippet in the 6PM update from the Ukranian General Staff: “Bakhmut axis: the enemy continues to assault the city of Bakhmut that is held by Ukrainian defenders, as well as the vicinity of Predtechyne (Donetsk oblast).”
If Predtechyne sounds unfamiliar, that’s because it’s 10 km down the highway from Ivaniske, about midway between Stupochky and the city of Kostyantynivka. The Ukrainian military often reports assaults as if they were simply “in the direction of,” so this could represent an attempted attack west of Klishchiivka. But the use of “the vicinity of Predtechyne” makes it sound as if Russian forces may have moved west and south from Bakhmut in a surprising way.
Telegram sources indicated a Russian force that was hit by artillery east of Predtechyne on Friday night / Saturday morning, but it’s unclear if this is the same action the general staff is describing. There’s at least the suggestion this could be a continuing action farther to the west than previous engagements.
On Saturday morning, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Army reported that Russia had conducted 59 assaults on Ukrainian positions along the front line. That number was the lowest for any complete day in March, but it was also part of a trend.
The change here is far from uniform, and earlier this week Russian activity peaked again with two days where over 100 assaults were staged. However, overall the number of assaults staged by Russia each day appears to be declining. That’s not just true in the areas where fighting has been relatively lower over the last few months, but even in hotspots like Bakhmut.
It could be a sign that Russia’s “big offensive” hasn’t just failed; it’s over.
The
erosion of Russian armored forces that required them to bring in
70-year-old T-54 tanks looks as if it may get worse in the near future.
If true, this will greatly reduce Russia’s ability to replace the tanks it is losing in the field. Russia’s need for a swift offensive is clear — if it doesn’t move now, it may have nothing left to move with. But Russia has just spent the last three months in a “winter offensive,” and has very, very little to show for it.
Another
group video of Russian forces complaining about the way they were being
sent to their death. This particular unit has lost about 135 of their
original 161 members. They say that, not only were they forced into a
position where they were attacking an unassailable point, but “blocking
units” refused to let them retreat.
This isn’t the first time there have been stories like this. However, in this case the blocking units appear to have been DNR (Donetsk People’s Republic). Early in the invasion, Russian forces put poorly-equipped DNR (and neighboring Luhansk People’s Republic) troops at the head of their advance, exacting a heavy toll on those forces and cushioning regular Russian military. But this time, it was a Russian military unit apparently attached to a DNR command. Those DNR forces chose this moment to get a little revenge by pushing the Russians into a hail of fire, and refusing to allow them to retreat.
It’s another example of how the Russian forces aren’t just made up of the Russian military. They’re regular military, Wagner Group, LNR, DNR, Chechens—all of them not just reporting up their own chains of command, but fully aware that the leaders at the top of those chains are jockeying for political power. They all want to show that their group, and only their group, can have success, while the leadership of the other groups is incompetent. If that means sacrificing a unit of the army, or denying ammunition to Wagner, or letting LNR face an onslaught with rifles picked up after the Charge of the Light Brigade, they’re okay with that.
Speaking of Chechens, where is Ramzan Kadyrov these days? After so many videos in which his men were obviously staging an “attack” far behind the lines, did they finally find some trees or telephone poles that could shoot back?
The area north of Kupyansk actually represents something of a puzzle, just in terms of how to map it. Across most of the maps, the yellow color represents that Russia has some reported presence in the area, but hasn’t consolidated control. However, that’s not really true of many of the villages immediately east of the river between Kupyansk and Dvorichna. Ukraine doesn’t have any troops in these villages, but Russia doesn’t actually dare enter them because they are under observation and artillery coverage from Ukrainian forces west of the Oskil River. Assaults toward Synkivka and Hryanikyvka were reportedly repulsed.
In general this whole “Russian offensive” here seems to have stalled out after the re-occupation of a few ungarrisoned towns. Russian sources are bragging that they conducted a “spectacular” artillery bombardment of Kupyansk itself. Ukrainian sources say not so much. Russia likely has dragged some forward artillery to the area around the crossroads at Vilshana. There still doesn’t seem to be an actual threat to Kupyansk or to Ukraine’s control over the highway to the east.
If you watched that BBC video that was included in the Friday update, you’ll know just how wrong it is to say that any area of the front line is really “quiet.” Even the areas where the lines are moving are filled with constant tension, constant danger, the threat of artillery fire directed by drones — or just kamikaze drones — is never ending.
That said, the Svatove area is about as quiet as it gets. Some small adjustments have been made based on some geolocated images. The fighting between Novoselivske and Kuzemivka continues. Nothing else significant seems to be happening here.
There are no reports today of assaults or shelling of those towns along the highway north of Kreminna, so Russia may have actually finally pushed Ukrainian forces from this area immediately north of the city. Most of the fighting remains in the forest area south of Kreminna.
I’ve tagged Dibrova as disputed here, but I don’t believe Russia has any presence there, or in Kuzmyne. However, Russian artillery appears to have pushed Ukrainian forces slightly west, so it’s likely neither of these villages has any significant force from either side.
To the south, Russia continues to make small assaults in the direction of Bilohorivka, but they have met with no reported success. The same thing is true for Terny and Spirne just south of Bilohorivka.
The most amazing thing about Bakhmut is that we’re still talking about Bakhmut. The number of days where it seemed as if the city was about to be handed over to the Russians is at least in the dozens. The decision to hold Bakhmut, no matter the cost, is going to be the subject of debate for years, if not generations. But this week at Bakhmut … not a whole lot happened.
Or honestly, a lot happened. The fighting continued to be intense. Every single day brought a string of tragic death announcements, from well known unit commanders and Ukrainians who were famous for some other venture before the war, to foreign volunteers who survived multiple battles elsewhere only to fall at Bakhmut. The cost of not having the lines shift at Bakhmut is enormous.
In general this week, Wagner Group forces picked their way forward in the north and southwest areas of the city, coming within about 1km of the city center and directing still more artillery fire that has eliminated some of Bakhmut’s greatest landmarks. Northwest of the city, what seems to be a mixture of Wagner and regular army made multiple assaults in the direction of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, but these seem to have stalled out over the last couple of days. I’ve actually pushed back a bit on the area previously marked as having Russian presence based on videos and images from this area. Russian forces also continue efforts to press toward Bohdanivka with no apparent progress.
To the south, the Ukrainian military reports more attacks on Ivanivske, but Russia seems to have all but given up on it’s previous plans in this area. Remember when Wagner Group announced it had already taken Chasiv Yar? It never came close. It did throw some shells that way on Friday.
There was also a reported assault “in the direction of” Stupochky on Friday, but I don’t know how far it was from the actual settlement. Klishchiivka did not show up in reports at the end of the week, suggesting that Ukrainian efforts in this direction may have ended.
Actions around Avdiivka largely mirror those at Bakhmut, with Russia attempting to press down to Stepove on the north and attacking Sjeverne on the south. Neither of these seem to have moved the lines.
Right now, as at the beginning of the invasion, Ukrainian forces are within 5 km of the DNR capital. Donetsk has taken repeated hits from Ukrainian artillery, but that the city hasn’t been reduced in the way that Mariupol or Bakhmut has speaks to Ukraine’s and Russia’s absolutely different goals this war.
Again, if you haven’t watched that BBC video about this area, go watch it. This is the daily experience for tens of thousands of Ukrainian forces scattered along lines far from Bakhmut and the areas that have been heavily covered.
As usual, Russia has attacked near Vuhledar. I’ve actually moved the line of Russian presence north on the east site of the town, because it seems that vehicles are getting deeper penetration than they were a month ago. However, the line has zigged south immediately south of Vuhledar, as Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced to a group of now shattered homes along the highway.
From Velyka Novosilka to Vuheldar, every settlement along that road was hit with artillery fire in the last two days, but there doesn’t seem to have been subject to a direct assault.
And that’s pretty much it. Other maps are unchanged from last week.
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