Russia Appears To Be Hunkering Down In Anticipation of Ukrainian Offensive

Everyone knows the offensive is coming. Even Russian commanders more inclined to respond to ludicrously out of touch Kremlin demands than to the reality on the ground. 

So Russian forces have stopped attacking - in part because they are no longer able - and in part because they are trying to husband what resources they have in preparation for Ukraine's powerful new NATO equipment and fresh troops. Ukraine needs its offensive to succeed. Russian forces just hope to survive. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

It’s not just Bakhmut where Russian advances have slowed. Reduced Russian assaults could represent a decline in their ability to launch assaults. (But) they may not be attacking because they are bracing for that Ukrainian counteroffensive. Reports have noted that Russian forces are “on the defensive” on the eastern front everywhere except at Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka. Russia is no longer trying to advance. They’re preparing to receive Ukraine’s counter. Ukraine's  actions at Melitopol and other points in the south have the look of “shaping the battlefield:” striking transportation hubs, established positions, and creating chaos behind the lines. Which is (what) often comes in advance of a major push

Last Saturday, we looked at what appeared to be a decline in Russia’s daily assaults along the front during the month of March. As reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in their 6 AM morning briefings, a high of 170 assaults were launched by Russia at various locations back at the beginning of the month. That number fluctuated up and down during the next three weeks before hitting a low of 59 on March 24. Even so, it wasn’t clear that there was an actual trend. That single entry at the beginning of the month may have been a fluke high, that final number on the chart at the time an exceptional low. Taken together, the two could create the impression of a trend where none existed.

Then we got data for the next four days, and it became clear that the trend is real.  

Reported Russian assaults per day on Ukrainian positions.

Now, what does that trend actually mean?

It would be nice to read this as proof of the “c” word: culmination. It’s been clear over the last month that Russia has been moving forces around as it sought to continue its major attacks near Bakhmut and Avdiivka. That included taking forces from the north and sending them to Bakhmut even as some of the Wagner mercenaries at Bakhmut were reportedly being redirected to Avdiivka. 

Reduced Russian assaults really could represent a decline in their ability to launch assaults. From the beginning of the invasion, Russia doesn’t seem to have factored the probability of success into the small-unit assaults it has staged. If they’re not attacking, maybe it means they can no longer scrape together enough men and materiel to launch an attack. Or, considering the number of videos that have come out with Russian units begging “Vladimir Vladimirovich” to please stop sending them into the meat grinder, maybe Russia is running out of units willing to make such attempted advances.

Here’s how the Ukrainian Telegram channel DeepState put events on Wednesday.

No significant changes and events were recorded during the day. Globally, the enemy is slightly slowing down the pace, but does not reject plans to capture Bakhmut, improve the position near Kreminna and Donetsk, as well as the encirclement of Avdiivka.

It’s not just Bakhmut where Russian advances have obviously slowed. At Kreminna, Russia has been unable to dislodge Ukrainian forces from positions adjacent to the city despite a whole winter of concerted efforts. The fight is still happening right on the edge of the city, and the Russian fighters only appear to be getting more inexperienced and poorly equipped over time.

Russian attacks really could be trailing off because their ability to stage these attacks is declining for a combination of reasons. On the other hand, they may not be attacking because they, like everyone else, are bracing for what Ukraine does next. Because the talk of that Ukrainian counteroffensive is everywhere. 

For weeks now, reports of the area around Zaporizhzhia have noted that Russian forces are “on the defensive.” That increasingly appears to be the state of things from Kreminna north to Svatove, and on the eastern front everywhere except at Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka. Russia is no longer trying to advance. They’re preparing to receive Ukraine’s counter.

It’s worth mentioning that as often as we talk about Bakhmut, Russia announced that they had captured Marinka a full year ago. They still haven’t taken Marinka. And now fighting there is back to little more than Russia throwing a desultory round of shells at Ukrainian positions.

Here’s Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksi Rezniko appearing last night on Ukrainian TV addressing how Western tanks will be used in Ukraine.

Rezniko: “You will see them on the counter-attack according to the decision of our General Staff. It is already being planned in several directions. It depends on what the most suitable moment is, how they decide. Also, everything depends on weather conditions. In spring, our land is very wet. Only tracked vehicles can be used. I think we can see them in April-May.”

So Ukraine’s counteroffensive will begin next month. Or maybe the month after that. And it will be “in several directions.”

Russian officials may dismiss the presence of Western tanks and fighting vehicles in Ukraine. Russian propaganda sites may have been claiming that these tanks were captured by Russian forces weeks before they ever reached Ukraine. But you can bet that in the minds of Russian soldiers and not a few Russian officers, each Challenger 2 is now 100 meters long. Every Leopard capable of sinking a battleship. The time it has taken for these weapon systems to actually reach the front lines has only made them grow. The thought of these things coming over the low, muddy, crater-pocked horizon is the kind of thing that definitely makes a Russian soldier reach for a trenching shovel rather than a rifle.

Russia’s winter offensive failed. Now Russia’s assaults are slowing as it prepares for the tide to start turning the other way. 

Everyone is anxious for the counteroffensive to begin, but the most important thing may be that Ukraine’s first assault be successful, because Russia isn’t just looking spent—they’re looking fragile.

It’s unlikely, between the obvious mud and the still-arriving Western equipment, that Ukraine is going to launch any sort of major assault in the next few days. However, the actions at Melitopol and other points in the south certainly have the look of “shaping the battlefield.” Ukraine is striking transportation hubs, driving Russian forces from established positions, and creating chaos behind the lines. Which is all the sort of things that often come in advance of a major push into an area.

So maybe that big counteroffensive won’t come at Bakhmut, as officials were all but stating last week; it will come south from Zaporizhzhia and cut through the occupied south. That has always seemed like a plan that makes sense.

Or maybe this is the feint, and the real counteroffensive will be at Kupyansk. Or Kreminna. Or Svatove. Or … 

What’s clear today is that Russian operations have slowed. They are drawing back, waiting to receive a punch. Ukraine is in the position of being able to maneuver and place its forces where it wants. It can decide where and when the counteroffensive really starts.

That’s a great position. 

But if Russia commanders are worrying themselves sick over what Ukraine does next, Ukrainian commanders have to be worrying about the same thing. Because about the only thing that could hurt Ukraine worse than a big Russian success would be a big Ukrainian failure. The best way to make sure that Ukraine keeps getting the support of the West, and to see that it doesn’t have to go into next winter worrying about what Russia will do, is to deliver a big success from the spring counteroffensive. And that’s a huge responsibility for everyone involved in turning verbal sparring into kilometers gained on the ground.