Rope-A-Dope: How Russia's Winter Offensive Achieved So Almost Nothing

You know you're in trouble when you think you have your enemy on the ropes and instead of retreating they reinforce. 

Russia took its best shot and...missed. In fact, missed so badly that its opponent sees opportunity in prolonging their misery. Russia had hoped to wear down the less numerous Ukrainians but in the process of doing so, ended up merely doing so to themselves, and all for a few square miles of utterly barren, demolished territory with no strategic significance. This is the military illustration of Muhammed Ali's "rope-a-dope" strategy, defined as a boxing tactic of pretending to be trapped against the ropes, goading an opponent to throw tiring ineffective punches. JL

Kos reports in Daily Kos:

In the fall, we hoped for a big Ukrainian winter offensive once the ground froze. Instead, Western nations finally pledged serious armor. Then, in February, everyone was like “RUSSIA’S WINTER OFFENSIVE IS COMING!”, and then they were like, “Wait, is this the winter offensive?” The last two months have been more of the same self-destructive Russian tactics, frontal assaults against entrenched Ukrainian positions. Both sides may be suffering casualties, but the Pentagon estimates a 5-1 Russian-to-Ukraine casualty ratio. Ukraine claim 7-1. The U.S. is training Ukrainian officers in combined arms warfare. Ukrainian troops are learning how to operate their new vehicles. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has claimed that the city is being reinforced, and Ukraine has no plans to surrender it. Whether that’s true or not remains to be seen. It’s in Ukraine’s interest to have Russia keep funneling forces toward Bakhmut, even if it plans an eventual retreat.

But today is less about Bakhmut and more about perspective. 

Russia gained a bit more than 80 square kilometers around Bakhmut in that time. That’s 30 square miles, or a 5-mile-by-6-mile grid. Still, you can’t see that on the map because it is a militarily insignificant gain. And if you don’t already know where Bakhmut is on that map, good luck finding it.

All the orange arrows are the locations of Russia’s big winter offensive. Remember back in February, when everyone was like “RUSSIA’S WINTER OFFENSIVE IS COMING!”, and then they were like, “Wait, is this the winter offensive?” In reality, the last two months have been more of the same self-destructive Russian tactics—mostly frontal assaults against deeply entrenched Ukrainian positions. Both sides may be suffering brutal casualties, but the Pentagon estimates a 5-1 Russian-to-Ukraine casualty ratio. Ukraine will take it. (They claim 7-1, for what it’s worth.) 

We have seen some Russian armor, but Ukraine has really perfected its destruction.

Ukraine claims 130 Russian pieces of armor destroyed in the last month around Vuhledar, where the supposed “elite” Russian Naval Infantry (aka Marines) got absolutely decimated. The thread above counts 102 pieces of armor and one helicopter, making Ukrainian claims credible.  

Back in the fall, we hoped for a big Ukrainian winter offensive once the ground froze. Maybe we’d see Svatove and Kreminna liberated in the north! Instead, something better happened—Western nations finally pledged serious armor. At last count, Ukraine should be getting several hundred main battle tanks and over 1,000 infantry fighting vehicles over the next two months. The U.S. is training Ukrainian officers in combined arms warfare in Germany. Ukrainian troops are currently learning how to operate their new vehicles, and whatever combined-arms lessons are learned in Germany, those Ukrainian units will need to spend several months drilling lessons learned to work out the various kinks. 

Indeed, as much as everyone talks about a spring Ukrainian counteroffensive, don’t be surprised to see it dragged out closer to summer. With Russia hellbent on depleting itself using ineffective infantry Zerg rushes, it makes military sense for Ukraine to  whittle them down for as long as it takes its offensive firepower to prepare in the rear. 

The tragedy is that Ukraine is manning many of its front-line trenches with their own mobilized units, with minimal training and inadequate support. It’s short-term pain in service of Ukraine’s long-term goals, and it freakin’ sucks for those being asked to make that sacrifice. They are buying the time Ukraine needs to prepare with their own blood. 

That sacrifice isn’t in vain, as Russia’s big winter offensive has barely budged the lines. The longer defenses hold, regardless of the cost, the better Ukraine’s new armored vanguards will be prepared to liberate their country later this year.