Bakhmut Holds - But Should It? The Debate About Pressure To Withdraw

While Ukraine President Zelensky and some military leaders believe there is still advantage to be gained from bleeding the Russians at Bakhmut, a growing chorus of military observers think that Ukraine has probably extracted all or most of the value it can from the city's defense and it would be prudent to withdraw to prepared lines further west. 

That said, the Ukrainians have waged this war with skill and tenacity, which has rarely, if ever, proved them wrong. This is a test of those capabilities. JL 

Kos reports in Daily Kos:

Bakhmut holds. But maybe it shouldn’t. Ukraine has defended it because if not, the next town to the west will be the next to be leveled to the ground. And, for a while, it provided a lopsided casualty balance, with Russia taking disproportionately heavy casualties compared to its dug-in Ukrainian defenders. But that balance has tilted in the past weeks, and the clear-cut advantages of the city’s defenses has evaporated. Ukraine’s best, most experienced forces are training for the spring offensive, in Germany, in Poland, or in the rear learning how to use Western armor and drilling NATO-style combined-arms tactics.

Bakhmut holds. But maybe it shouldn’t.

We’ve long talked about Bakhmut’s lack of strategic importance. 

Map

Russia has focused on Bakhmut for the last eight months because it could. It has a unique network of rail and roads that has made supply to that front relatively easy. 

Ukraine has defended it because if not, the next town to the west will be the next to be leveled to the ground. And, for a while, it provided a lopsided casualty balance, with Russia taking disproportionately heavy casualties compared to its dug-in Ukrainian defenders. 

But that balance has tilted in the past weeks, and the clear-cut advantages of the city’s defenses has evaporated. 

All this leads to terrifying casualties of both dead and wounded. "The battalion came in in the middle of December… between all the different platoons, there were 500 of us," says Borys, a combat medic from Odesa Oblast fighting around Bakhmut. "A month ago, there were literally 150 of us."

“When you go out to the position, it’s not even a 50/50 chance that you’ll come out of there (alive),” says the older Serhiy. “It’s more like 30/70.”

That’s reporting from the Kyiv Independent. Not all is well in the city’s defense. 

The matter is likely exacerbated by a quality disparity in the forces defending the city. There have been multiple indications that Ukraine is rushing its own mobilized soldiers to the city’s trenches with minimal training. One report put it at five days. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s best, most experienced forces are training for the spring offensive, in Germany, in Poland, or in the rear learning how to use Western armor and drilling NATO-style combined-arms tactics. 

Remember the river that runs through the eastern one-third of Bakhmut? Russia has gotten that far. And spring has arrived early, bringing back the miserable mud. 

Ukrainians report many jeeps and trucks were lost in the mud and only the caterpillars could pass. With more rain expected, once the RAF advances a couple of kilometers to the first lines in Bakhmut, it’ll be impossible to withdraw the rest of the equipment.
(They claim the most… https://t.co/3Q3ROkReFO pic.twitter.com/N7Mm2SGc4h

— Sarah 🇺🇸 (@LoveOurTrump) March 6, 2023

The fear of having the next town over leveled by Russia is real, but Russia has also shown very little ability to push beyond its core supply lines. Look at that map above again: The front line is flat. A Russian-held Bakhmut would undoubtedly provide a launching pad for further advances, but there are multiple defensive lines to the city’s west, overlooking open fields like around Vuhledar (where hundreds of Russian armored vehicles and countless Russian corpses litter the surroundings, with minimal corresponding Ukrainian casualties). Look at the hills west of Bakhmut: 

Russia will have to attack uphill toward Chasiv Yar, just like they’ve struggled to do so around Vuhledar. 

Thread about russian losses during the "offensive" in #Vuhledar pic.twitter.com/I0LIpoV6WE

— Robert ✙ (@OcultaMondiala) February 6, 2023

(The thread has counted 103 destroyed Russian vehicles in latest attack, while Ukraine claims 130 total. This isn’t counting failed efforts last year.)

Vuhledar isn’t the only analogy. The other is Izyum, which Russia captured April 1, yet they were never able to push more than 25 kilometers from the town in any direction. Heck, one little dot on the map, my favorite hero city of Dovhen’ke (pre-war population: 800) and its defenders single-handedly held off the Russian hordes for months. 

May 19, 2022 map.

Ten months later, Russia may be close to capturing Bakhmut, but Izyum is liberated and free, and far from any active front line.