The Reason Russia's New Manpower In Ukraine Is Not Proving Advantageous

The Russians have achieved a manpower advantage in Ukraine, but it is still insufficient to establish enough mass at critical points along the front line to generate a breakthrough.

The Ukrainians have been holding with a combination of good defenses and better intelligence. JL 

Matthew Luxmoore and Bojan Pancevski report in the Wall Street Journal:

Russian forces were being given orders to advance along most axes but were failing to amass sufficient combat power to achieve decisive results anywhere along the front line. Russia had made further advances north of Bakhmut as part of an effort to surround the city after months of brutal fighting there, but it said a tactical advance to the south had made little progress.

Western officials said Russia was tightening its noose around the contested city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization warned the start of a major new Russian offensive was now under way.

Defense ministers of NATO member states met on Tuesday to discuss the provision of further support for Ukraine, including ramping up production in NATO countries of ammunition and other military aid, as Russia’s invasion nears its one-year mark.

 

The U.K.’s Defense Ministry said in its intelligence update on Tuesday that Russia had made further advances north of Bakhmut as part of an effort to surround the city after months of brutal fighting there, but it said a tactical advance to the south had likely made little progress.

Russia has brought thousands of fresh troops to Ukraine in recent weeks, though Kyiv has claimed to have repelled advances on multiple axes. But the manpower difference has gradually swung in Russia’s favor since it announced a mobilization in September, and it has allowed it to carve out small gains and place Ukraine in a precarious position in Bakhmut.

The U.K. said Russian forces were being given orders to advance along most axes but were failing to amass sufficient combat power to achieve decisive results anywhere along the front line.

Western and Ukrainian officials have in recent weeks been warning of a major Russian offensive meant to break through Ukrainian lines in the east and south and coincide with the first anniversary of the war on Feb. 24.

“I think the reality [is] that we’re seeing the start already,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters on Monday, saying that Russia had brought huge amounts of manpower to the fight. “We see how they are sending in more troops, more weapons, more capabilities, to try to pressure the Ukrainians.”

Mr. Stoltenberg said it was necessary to provide Ukraine with more weapons that can help it shore up its defenses and stage its own offensives to retake lost territory. “The faster we can deliver weapons, ammunition, spare parts, fuel to the Ukrainian front, the more lives we save,” Mr. Stoltenberg said.

Ukraine’s military on Monday barred aid workers and journalists from entering Bakhmut without special permission granted in advance, as fighting in the area intensifies and the risks for civilians rise.

Earlier this month, Pete Reed, an American serving as a volunteer medic in front-line areas, was killed while rendering aid in Bakhmut. Family and friends of Mr. Reed, a 33-year-old ex-Marine, said he was killed in the city when a Russian shell struck the vehicle in which he was traveling.

Meanwhile, the Russian government on Tuesday denied claims that it was seeking to foment a coup in neighboring Moldova, a part of which has been occupied by Moscow since the early 1990s.

The allegations, made by Moldovan politicians on Monday, were unfounded and part of a coordinated effort by Ukraine and the West to drag the small, impoverished nation into a conflict with Russia, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, told reporters on Tuesday.

“We resolutely reject the insinuations about the alleged desire of Russia to undermine the situation in the Republic of Moldova,” Ms. Zakharova said. “Unlike Western countries and Ukraine, we do not interfere in the internal affairs of Moldova and other countries of the world.”