The Reason Bakhmut Still Hasn't Fallen To Russian Forces

Aside from the epic dysfunction that has plagued the Russian military since they first attempted to attack Ukraine almost a year ago, Russian forces are now confronting a more experienced, better led and technologically advanced Ukrainian army. 

At Bakhmut, whose epitaph western mainstream media appear to enhance every day, the Russians have been stopped - again - by their own problems which have been compounded by Ukrainian counterattacks. There is a reason Wagner's Prigozhin has warned that Bakhmut will not fall soon. And he should know. JL  

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

We’re at least three weeks into (this season's) round of “Bakhmut is going to fall any moment.” Still, Bakhmut holds. Because Ukrainian forces there have done more than just hold. In at least one area—the area that may be the most critical to sustaining the city—Russia’s line of control has been moved back significantly. Ukrainian forces staged a counterattack, pushing Russian forces back at least another kilometer. The Russian offensive at Bakhmut appears to be back to where it has been for month after month - fighting against tough defensive positions and suffering heavy losses for very small gains.

We’re at least three weeks into the latest round of “Bakhmut is going to fall any moment.” Still, Bakhmut holds. In fact, it’s worth taking a look at the Bakhmut area again this morning because Ukrainian forces there have done more than just hold. In at least one area—the area that may be the most critical to sustaining the city—Russia’s line of control has been moved back significantly.

Bakhmut area. Open image in another tab for a larger view.

On Saturday, we looked at how the only clear access route in and out of Bakhmut is the one that runs through Khromove, directly west of the city. However, while this point on the road lies neatly between areas now under Russian fire control to the north and south, the only paved section of the road goes southwest to the town of Chasiv Yar. Last week, pro-Russian sources claimed that Wagner forces had crossed the highway south of Bakhmut, circled around the town of Ivaniske, and were in the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, which would put them in a position to completely block access in and out of the city.

As with so many claims from Russia, that never really happened. Russian forces seemed to have succeed in using artillery to take down a bridge west of Ivaniske, which is likely to restrict Ukraine’s movements along the T0504 highway for the immediate future. However, they never seemed to get a substantial force within a kilometer of the highway at any point south of the city. Then on Tuesday Ukrainian forces staged a counterattack, pushing Russian forces back at least another kilometer. 

North of the city, heavy fighting continues in Krasna Hora, another location that Russia had claimed to have captured at least a week ago. As some of the fog lifts over the situation around Bakhmut, it seems that Russian forces haven’t progressed as far west of Blahodatne as had previously been thought, though Russia is definitely pressing the M03 highway west of Paraskoiivka. It doesn’t seem that Russia actually has control of this road—the only videos of movement still show a handful of Ukrainian vehicles—but they are definitely positioned to have fire control over the road and make it of very little utility to Ukraine at the moment.

Mostly what seems to have happened on the north side of the city over the last week is more of a solidification of positions. Russia hasn’t made any new significant advances, but they have apparently secured some of the locations that were captured in the push that began with the attack on Soledar. Now it appears that the lines both north and west of this small salient have become more static. And of course, on the south side is the kind of block-to-block fighting that has so long characterized Bahkmut. 

Ukrainian soldiers operate an anti-aircraft gun at Bakhmut, Feb. 14, 2023.

Ukrainian military officials have declared that when it comes to Bakhmut, “every block is a fortress.” Likely that’s an exaggeration, but it gets the point across: Ukraine has no intention of withdrawing from Bakhmut and intends to sell every square meter at a high cost.

It’s tempting to start to wonder if Russia’s attack in the area has culminated, or if they’ve overextended their forces in an attempt to encircle Bakhmut. However, it’s too early for statements like that. Combat in the area remains intense, and forces inside the city continue to report an extremely difficult situation. There remains the possibility that Russian forces could break through defenses in a new location, allowing them to press into the city or go for that last vital highway connection. But right now, the Russian offensive at Bakhmut appears to be back to where it has been for month after month: fighting against tough defensive positions and suffering heavy losses for very small gains.

But that counterattack near Ivaniske shows that Ukrainian forces in the area aren’t just dug in and waiting. They’re aware of weaknesses in the Russian lines and are willing to extend themselves when there’s an opportunity to regain territory without engaging in a high-loss engagement. Russian forces south of Bakhmut have largely been thrown back into the area around Klishchiivka, an area Ukraine had trouble defending, even with some trenches in place. It will be interesting to see if Russia has better luck clinging to that location. 

There’s no doubt that the loss of Soledar was significant, and that Russia’s advance to Blahodatne changed the situation when it comes to lines of communication in Bakhmut. However, for the moment, Ukraine is adamant that they are not going anywhere. The effort being expended in holding the area does not speak to a force that is in any way defeated.

Expect to see “Bakhmut holds” for some time to come. Hey, remember when people were convinced Bakhmut was about to fall because Russia had almost reached the “wine factory?”