Russia Remains Ukraine's Largest (Involuntary) Supplier of Tanks

Thanks to the hundreds Ukraine has captured, many intact or easily repairable. JL

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine now has hundreds of more tanks than it did when the invasion began. Ukraine has captured 547 Russian tanks since the war began. Russia has captured just 143 Ukrainian tanks. That’s a net gain of 404 tanks. Russia still remains the largest single source of foreign tanks supplied to Ukraine. Russia has lost a documented 1,727 tanks (though) Ukraine puts Russia’s losses at 3,286. At just under two times the documented losses, that actually seems reasonable. Looking at the rate at which Russia is able to manufacture new tanks, or prepare tanks from storage, their available stockpile of tanks is down by 3,000.

Russia is burning through what seemed at first to be an inexhaustible supply of tanks, and how current rates of production in Russia can’t begin to replace the rate of losses they’re seeing in repeated, poorly planned offensives. Meanwhile, though Ukraine has lost only a fraction as much of its heavy equipment, the manufacturing rate of much of this equipment within Ukraine is effectively zero. On tanks, that’s been true since 2014, when Russia’s earlier invasion occupied Crimea and captured the plants where vital components of Ukraine’s T-84 tank were made.

That means Ukraine is only replacing its lost tanks with those coming in from outside sources. To date, Ukraine has received just over 400 upgraded Soviet tanks provided by Western allies. That’s almost exactly the number of Ukrainian tanks that are confirmed losses. Considering that Ukraine’s actual losses are probably well in excess of the documented losses, it would seem that Ukraine’s tank force is also being thinned out, though not to the extent seen by Russia.

However, there’s another factor. One that shows Ukraine now likely has hundreds of more tanks than it did when the invasion began.

Here’s an updated table of the tanks that have already been sent to Ukraine, as well as those promised in the coming months.

TANKS BEING SENT TO UKRAINE

NATION	TANK	NUMBER	DELIVERED
Czech Republic	T-72M1	35	Apr 2022
Poland	T-72M	290	Apr 2022
North Macedonia	T-72A	8	Aug 2022
Slovenia	M-55S	28	Oct 2022
Netherlands	T-72EA	72	Jan 2023
United Kingdom	Challenger 2	14	Mar 2023*
Germany	Leopard 2A6	14	Mar 2023*
Canada	Leopard 2A4	4	Mar 2023*
Poland	Leopard 2A4	14	Mar 2023*
Norway	Leopard 2A4	8	TBA
United States	Abrams M1A2	31	TBA
Poland	PT-91	30	TBA
Denmark	Leopard 1A5	100	TBA

*Several tanks are expected to first enter the country “around the end of March,” but don’t expect that to be a precise date.

Though the appearance of Western tanks in Ukraine is something that has everyone excited (in Russia, it’s a different kind of excitement), the actual number of tanks promised so far for this year is considerably lower than it was in the six months after Russia began their illegal invasion. That could be a serious concern, especially if some of the big predicted offensives and counteroffensives get underway.

 

But here’s that one more magic factor. As documented by Oryx, Ukraine has captured 547 Russian tanks since the war began. Meanwhile, Russia has captured just 143 Ukrainian tanks. That’s a net gain of 404 tanks. Russia still remains the largest single source of foreign tanks supplied to Ukraine. In fact, at this point, with those T-72EAs from the Netherlands still working their way into the country, Russia has likely “donated” more tanks to Ukraine than all other nations combined.

Granted, many of those Russian tanks need some repairs and repainting, but many of them have come back into service quickly. In fact, some of the 143 tanks reportedly captured by Russia were Russian tanks that they managed to grab back.

But here’s the overall picture: Russia has lost a documented 1,727 tanks, according to Oryx. Ukraine puts Russia’s actual losses at 3,286. At just under two times the documented losses, that actually seems fairly reasonable. Looking at the rate at which Russia is able to manufacture new tanks, or prepare tanks from storage, their available stockpile of tanks is down by around 3,000.

On the Ukraine side, they’ve officially lost 461. Scale that up by the difference between reported and confirmed on the Russian side, and Ukraine may have lost as many as 870 tanks. But when you adjust for the 433 tanks sent to Ukraine from the West, and the 404 tank difference in their “trade” with Russia, Ukraine’s maximum losses so far in the invasion are about … 33 tanks. If the number of tanks lost is actually closer to the documented number, then they could have more tanks now than at the outset.

However, the number of tanks promised to Ukraine over the next year is just 215. That’s a significant decrease over what was sent in 2022. Granted, many of the new tanks on the way are Western tanks that are expected to greatly outfight the Russian T-72s and T-80s.