Is the Russian Army Ripe For Mutiny?

Yes, conditions are present for a Russian military mutiny - and Russian history is replete with them, 1905 and 1917 being the salient examples.  

The growing economic inequality in Russia combined with shocking losses on the battlefield, leadership indifference and even contempt for troops' survival - let alone their well-being - on top of poor equipment, limited food, mass drunkenness and awareness that Moscow/St Petersburg elites are not being asked to fight this war are preconditions for mutiny. JL

Benjamin Jensen reports in Center For Strategic and International Studies:

Military power requires cohesive organizations as much as tanks and planes. Soldiers reflect cleavages in their societies. The more unequal and stratified a society, the more likely the military is to underperform. Russia has seen a dramatic rise in income inequality over the last generation. The combined stress of battlefield losses and growing crises on the home front undermine military power through eroding cohesion. Conditions are present for a large-scale Russian military mutiny. Low morale, cold weather, and high attrition rates alongside riots, refusal of orders, defections, faulty equipment, lack of winter gear, fights, drunkenness in the trenches and surrenders could spread through the trenches.

In stark contrast to Ukrainian forces, Russian efforts in Ukraine have been plagued by faulty equipment, lack of winter gear, and reported fights and drunkenness in the trenches. What if the mutinies endemic in the Russian revolutions in 1905 and 1917 are a harbinger for the course of 2023? Military power requires cohesive fighting organizations as much as it does tanks and planes. Soldiers tend to reflect cleavages and power struggles in their societies. The combined stress of battlefield losses and growing crises on the home front can undermine military power through eroding cohesion. Look no further than the Kiel Mutiny in the German navy in 1918 and the cascading protests across that accelerated the end of World War I. Along similar lines, a recent study by Jason Lyall, director of the Political Violence Field Lab, found that military performance is linked to economic and social inequality in a society. The more unequal and stratified a society, the more likely the military is to underperform and even collapse.  

Applied to Russia, which has seen a dramatic rise in income inequality over the last generation, alongside a rise in nationalistic xenophobic attitudes and racism against non-ethnic Russians, this finding suggests the winter could be longer for Moscow than it is for Kyiv. The signs are already present given changing sentiments in minority regions like Buryatia and mass emigration by military age males. Sanctions combined with the Kremlin’s rhetoric about historic Russia may bolster the elite that didn’t jump from windows, but it only exacerbates the tensions tearing the nation apart and undermining its military performance. Russia has more forced conscripts and prison units than it does volunteers.   

The conditions are already present for a large-scale Russian military mutiny. Low morale, cold weather, and high attrition rates alongside nationalist rhetoric and economic decline will continue over the course of the next three months. In this environment, a spark can start a wildfire. Riots, rampant refusal of orders, and even defections and surrenders could spread like a disease through the burnt-out cities and trenches along the battlefield in Ukraine. Though impossible to predict, the most likely catalyst on the horizon is the first offensive of the spring in which mobilized conscripts currently training in Russia and Belarus discover the hell of modern trench warfare.