Ukraine Resistance Stalls Russian Donbas Offensive Despite Huge Effort

The significance of this stalled effort is that Russia appears to be throwing everything it has at the Donbas front in hopes of delivering a 'victory' to Putin for the first anniversary of his Ukraine invasion - no matter how minor.

But despite the human sacrifice, Russian gains are minimal to nonexistent, suggesting that - with his latest announcement that Russian university students will now be drafted - the Russians literally dont know what to do other than throw bodies at the Ukrainian defenses in hopes of forcing some sort of change. And as every intelligent general knows, hope is not a strategy. JL  

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

Fighting around Bakhmut has been repeatedly described today as “the most intense since the invasion began.” There is a feeling that Russia is doing everything possible to capture the city by Friday to give Putin a cherry for the anniversary of first rolling his tanks over the border. (And) Russia has been trying to push Ukraine back from the area around Kupyansk. Russia appears to be putting a significant effort into moving the line (but) seems to have stalled over the past few days. Bad weather and bad conditions have reportedly slowed Russia’s attempted advance.

At the northern end of the front, Russia has been trying to push Ukraine back from the area around Kupyansk. However, this effort seems to have stalled over the past few days.

Kupyansk area. Open image in another tab for a larger view.

Ukraine appears to have halted Russian efforts along the rail line east of Dvorichna between Masyutivka to Hryanykivka. In the Kupyansk direction, Russia seems to have reoccupied parts of Vilshana and Lyman Pershyi, but that seems to be about the limits of the advance. Most of these areas have remained in dispute since Ukraine crossed the Oskil River, so it’s not much of a significant advance. It doesn’t seem that Russia has enough force in the area to extend this effort or that they’ve come close to impacting Ukrainian control over the P07 highway running east out of Kupyansk—meaning that Ukraine still has multiple routes to supply its forces in the Svatove area.

At the northern end of this map, Russian sources are claiming that they have captured Dvorichne and are right across the river from Dvorichna. However, this is unconfirmed by Ukrainian sources.

There were reports from some quarters that Ukraine had made an advance near Svatove on Monday. However, this hasn’t been confirmed and may just be a rumor.

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At the moment, things around Kreminna are confusing enough that I’m not going to attempt to map there. There are multiple reports of Russia slowly making its way west, with Russian troops reportedly reaching Novovodyne to the north and reestablishing control over the P66 highway between Svatove and Kreminna. On the other hand, there continue to be reports of action in the towns along that highway just north of Kreminna, and Ukrainian forces in the woods just to the south (although Russia is also said to be moving toward Bilohorvika).

One report that keeps coming up: mud. Bad weather and bad conditions have reportedly slowed Russia’s attempted advance.

Russia appears to be putting a significant effort into moving the line, especially north of the city, but I can’t tell yet how successful they have been. I’ll try to revisit this in the next few days to see if there’s a better sense of what’s happening. Some Russian sources are claiming that Bilohorivka has been recaptured and that Ukraine has been forced out of Luhansk. To which I can only reply … that’s probably not true.

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Fighting around Bakhmut has been repeatedly described today as “the most intense since the invasion began.” That includes Russian forces pressing forward both north and south of the city. There is a tremendous feeling that Russia is doing everything possible to capture the city by Friday to give Putin a cherry for the anniversary of first rolling his tanks over the border.

Bakhmut. Open image in another tab for a larger view.

North of the city, Russia’s efforts to move north toward Fedorivka or west to Zaliznyanske appear largely stalled. Instead, Russian forces continue to press through Krasna Hora in block-by-block fighting that is approaching the northern edge of Bakhmut. 

On the east, reports that Ukraine intended to withdraw across the narrow river appear to have been accurate. While there is still some fighting going on east of this line, the river now seems to serve as Ukraine’s line of control.

The most concerning action at the moment may be to the south. After numerous failed efforts, Russia is throwing a large number of forces into an attempt to cross the highway south of Ivaniske. Their real target is Chasiv Yar, which represents one end of the last fully paved road that Ukraine controls in and out of Bakhmut. Ukraine has reportedly established additional lines of control into Bakhmut, but if Russia can get to Chasiv Yar, it will definitely crimp the best route currently in use.

At this point, Russia controls about one-third of Bakhmut proper, including all those much-fought-over factories and storage buildings on the east. A breakthrough on the north or south could give Putin what he wants for his Invasion Day present. However, should Ukraine hold against this all-out effort, Russia’s drive for Bakhmut might seriously culminate. 

After months of fighting, what happens at Bakhmut is likely to be decided in the next few days.