Adiivka: Another New Russian Offensive, Another Bloody Repulse By Ukraine

Despite the ostensibly knowledgeable experts claiming Russian forces are learning from their mistakes, the Russian assaults this month have all followed the disastrous February 2022 playbook: attack along an obvious paved roadway which is easily defended, letting Ukrainian defenders destroy whoever is stupid or pathetic enough to do so. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

While everyone was looking at Bakhmut, Vuhledar, and Kreminna, Russia launched another major attack just west of Donetsk into the town of Avdiivka. This is an area that has seen fighting every single day since the invasion began, and every single day Russia has failed to move the line. However, this time, Russia sent multiple armored companies and engaged in a battle running over three days to finally break the defenses at Avdiivka once and for all. So how did that go? Another Russian disaster that left at least seven tanks and 30 BMPs destroyed, along with an unknown number of Russian fighters.

This morning, it’s possible to say this once again: Bakhmut holds. Three weeks ago, it appeared that the city was about to finally be overwhelmed after months of holding out against sustained daily assaults that have cost Russia tens of thousands of troops and an unknown quantity of hardware. Two weeks ago, rumors had it that Ukraine was deserting the city with Russian “pincers” about to close from both north and south. One week ago, it seemed unlikely that Ukraine could hold out even for a day. They are still there. 

On Friday, there are reports of heavy fighting in Ivaniske to the southwest of the city, and that the pace of combat northeast of the city, in the area around Krasna Hora and Paraskoiivka, is increasing—though it barely seems possible that it could increase from what’s been seen over the last few days. 

Russian sources claim the pincers are closing around Bakhmut. Open image in another tab for a closer look.

Meanwhile, Russian sources are claiming that Wagner mercenaries crossed the M03 Highway near the village of Zaliznyanske, cutting Bakhmut’s final lifeline. But since Russia has been celebrating the “encirclement and fall” of Bakhmut every day for a month, it’s hard to know how seriously to take these reports.

There are some pretty good reasons to doubt the reports that Russia has crossed the highway at Zaliznyanske. For one thing, Wagner forces were reportedly repulsed from an area east and south of that village on Wednesday. There were also other Russian reports that contradicted the idea of moving south across the highway, saying that Russia was actually circumventing that location and continuing west for an attack on Minkivka. 

In any case, Russian sources are absolutely convinced that Bakhmut has already been encircled, somewhere, that all its lines of supply have fallen, and that now—right now—Russia is about to take the city over the bodies of 100,000 trapped Ukrainian soldiers.

In the words of one of Russia’s most popular propaganda shows … time will tell.

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A quick note: I’m aware that many of the highways in Ukraine got renamed some time ago. What I routinely call the M03 is also known as the E-40, and other roads like the P66 also have new names. My intention isn’t to cause confusion. It’s just that the Google Earth maps have one set of names, and if I don’t stick to that, the images and the text will be constantly out of sync. Sorry.

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While everyone was looking at Bakhmut, Vuhledar, and Kreminna, Russia launched another major attack just west of Donetsk into the town of Avdiivka. This is an area that has seen fighting every single day since the invasion began, and every single day Russia has failed to move the line. However, this time, Russia sent multiple armored companies and engaged in a battle running over three days to finally break the defenses at Avdiivka once and for all.

So how did that go for them?

Another Russian disaster that left at least seven tanks and 30 BMPs destroyed, along with an unknown number of Russian fighters. In a war where Russia has already lost over 1,700 tanks and 2000 infantry fighting vehicles, that may seem like a drop in the bucket. But the bucket has been getting a lot of fresh drops in the last week.

Some reports are putting Russian losses in this one assault on Avdiivka at three full companies. But here’s the part that may be even more amazing: Russia is trying it again right now. As in … right now.

Just as with Vuhledar, it seems Russia is insisting on directing armor along the same highway day after day, expecting different results. Have they heard that Ukrainian forces were running out of bullets? Because otherwise, it’s hard to understand the tactics of this “big offensive” so far.