Wagner's Soledar Casualties So Severe It May Be Folded Into Russian Army

Wagner Group's leader Prigozhin thought that fighting at Bakhmut and then Soledar would position him to take over the Russian military. But Wagner's losses at those two cities have been so severe that they cannot now be replaced. 

Attempts at press-ganging more convicts are not going well because the only ones left are incapacitated. One alternative being discussed is to give Wagner authority to round up all Russians who have so far refused to serve. Another is to fold Wagner into the military, the question being who will be in charge. There is no love lost between Defense Minister Shoigu, his deputy Gerasimov - and Prigozhin so that merger could turn ugly. JL

Chris O reports in Twitter:

The Wagner Group's Pyrrhic victory in Soledar (caused) the mercenaries to suffer such massive casualties that their future and ability to recover are now reportedly in doubt. has major problems in replacing its losses. "New raids on the zones [penal colonies] have started, but it's like a spoon poking at the bottom of an empty pot. Everyone who could was taken earlier." Prigozhin has gone to St Petersburg to discuss Wagner's fate, possibly with Putin. "There are suspicions Wagner will be merged into the military. It certainly doesn't look like a win." The Wagner Group's apparent success in capturing Soledar appears to have been a Pyrrhic victory, with the mercenaries suffering such massive casualties that their future and ability to recover are now reportedly in doubt.

 

It was previously reported that Wagner's head Yevgeny Prigozhin saw the assault on Soledar as a way of strengthening his hand against the Russian Ministry of Defence.
The outcome of the battle of Soledar appears not to have strengthened Prigozhin's position as much as he had hoped earlier.

 

The Russian VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that a source has told it that Prigozhin has gone to St Petersburg to discuss Wagner's fate, possibly with Putin. The source says; "There are suspicions that Wagner will be merged into the military. The Ministry of Defence troops in Soledar are now so spread out that it is not very clear whom they are blocking: the 'Musicians' [Wagner] or the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Prigozhin flew away 'grey', but promises to deal with the situation at the top. It certainly doesn't look like a win."

 

Wagner also reportedly has major problems in replacing its losses. According to the source, "New raids on the zones [penal colonies] have started, but it's like a spoon poking at the bottom of an empty pot. Everyone who could was taken earlier. Russia is reported to be considering forcing soldiers who are refusing to fight to serve in penal-style battalions under the command of the Wagner Group, which is desperate for new blood to replace its calamitous losses. There were calculations at Wagner that they would be given the "500s" (refuseniks), but so far this has stalled. Prigozhin is hoping to push the issue through. And they are waiting for a new mobilization, which should add [more] '500s'."

 

"Prigozhin has been cheering everyone on, but there is a sense that he has lost confidence in his position, so the focus is shifting from the battlefield to information policy. Now the main work will be done by those of his people who are in charge of media coverage."Another of the attitudes is not to provoke the military. It is also forbidden to swear at [General Valery] Gerasimov. Everyone prays that they don’t have to repeat everything with Bakhmut – the scale is gigantic compared to Soledar.And there are no new people yet, the supply of shells has not been solved with the Ministry of Defence either. Moreover at Kreminna-Svatove, the 'Musicians' have to defend themselves there...Everybody is waiting for the big mobilization, and everything will become clear after it. In particular, whether Wagner will receive 500s."

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