The Reason Russia's Soledar Attacks Seem Desperate Rather Than Strategic

The media are full of stories that Russia may finally be winning a victory for the first time since they invaded Ukraine. 

The implication, for some, is that Ukraine is therefore losing and should negotiate immediately. But those who remember last summer's battles around Severodonetsk, which also seemed hopeless for Ukraine, set the stage for its dramatic successes in Kharkiv and Kherson. Wagner's Prigozhin is desperate to deliver any kind of advance, no matter how insignificant. Ukraine remains focused on the more strategic goal of weakening Russia's forces and regaining captured territory as it has so dramatically done since the first days of the invasion. The calculus of how many dead and wounded Ukrainians are worth even more dead and wounded Russians is the question facing the Ukrainian military as they decide whether to continue holding or fall back to prepared positions. JL 

Daily Kos reports:

Soledar does not appear to be in imminent danger of falling to Russia, though the situation is “difficult” and Wagner released geolocated footage of soldiers in the city’s center (though bullets fly nearby, proving the situation remains fluid). (But) Ukraine is pushing toward Svatove and Kreminna in the north. Ukraine’s efforts have a strategic goal: If they can break through at Svatove, they can push east toward Starobilsk and cut off Russia’s entire northern supply line. If Ukraine attacks toward Melitopol, it would cut Russia’s land bridge to Crimea and cut Russia’s forces in two.

 

ThIIn the last couple of days, pro-Ukrainian sources have been in near panic at the fall of Ukrainian-held Soledar, northeast of Bakhmut, but as the sun came up today, turns out … well, who knows. 

Soledar does not appear to be in imminent danger of falling to Russia, though the situation is certainly described as “difficult” and Wagner released geolocated footage of soldiers in the city’s center (though bullets fly nearby, proving the situation remains fluid). Furthermore, the location remains outside the soon-to-be-famous salt mines—yet another industrial complex with deep underground tunnels that should tie up Russian forces for weeks or months, like the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, or the Azot chemical plant in Severodonetsk. 

Russian sources also claim that they have taken Podhorodne, just northeast of Bakhmut, and claim to be advancing across those open fields to Krasna Hora and Paraskovivka. Some of them claim Krasna Hora is already in Russian hands. There has been no visual confirmation of any of those claims, and it seems incredible that Russia has managed to cross those open fields under relentless Ukrainian artillery and machine gun fire. But I posted yesterday about  their successful human-wave tactics, as reported by a Ukrainian officer on the ground:

At first, the first group, usually of 8 people, is put forward to the finish line. The whole group is maximally loaded with [ammunition], each has a "Bumblebee" flamethrower. Their task is to get to the point and get a foothold. They are almost suicidal. Their [ammo] in case of failure is intended for the following groups.  

The group gets as close as possible to the Ukrainians and digs in as quickly as possible. A white cloth or other sign is left on the tree so that the next group can navigate in the event of the death of their predecessors and find where shelters have already been dug and where there are weapons.

During the fire contact, the "Wagners" detect Ukrainian fire positions and transfer them to their artillery. As a rule, 120-mm and 82-mm mortars work in them. Up to 10 mortars simultaneously begin to suppress the discovered Ukrainian position. Artillery training can last several hours in a row.

During this time, 500 meters from the first group, the second group concentrates. It has lighter equipment. And under the cover of artillery, this group begins an assault on the Ukrainian position. If the second group fails to take a position, it is followed by the third and even the fourth. That is, four waves of eight people for one Ukrainian position.

Wagner mercenary group reportedly recruited up to 40,000 Russian prisoners to throw at Ukrainian positions. Some reports claim that half of them are out of the war—dead or grievously wounded. That seems too crazy to be true, but then you read what they’re doing above, you see pictures of fields littered with the Wagner dead, and suddenly it all seems plausible, if not probable. 

The frightful body count hasn’t deterred pro-Russian Twitter and Telegram from near-orgasmic levels of excitement. You’d think Russia was on the verge of an actual victory, not throwing everything they have left at attempting to take a town with a pre-war population of 10,000. This is it. After losing all of Kharkiv and half of Kherson oblasts (plus Kherson city itself), Russia thinks that taking Soledar and maybe Bakhmut somehow cancels out those humiliating losses. Their pathetic stans certainly pretend it does. And yet it brings Russia nothing of real value. Let’s look at the remaining active front:

Ukraine is pushing toward Svatove and Kreminna in the north, while Russia is pushing at Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and (not so much lately) Pavlivka/Vuhledar. Ukraine’s efforts have a strategic goal: If they can break through at Svatove, they can push east toward Starobilsk and cut off Russia’s entire northern supply line from Belgorod. If Ukraine eventually attacks toward Melitopol, it would cut Russia’s land bridge to Crimea and cut Russia’s forces in two. 

That’s called “strategy.” There is a strategic purpose to both those options. What is Russia’s strategy? Once upon a time, they had one! Remember this? 

Russia’s incredibly shrinking war aims.

Originally, Russia aimed to push north through Mykolaiv, and down from Kyiv, to cut off the bulk of Ukraine’s forces from their supply lines out west.

When Russia failed in both directions, they redeployed the bulk of their forces to Izyum, which then intended to push down toward Zaporizhzhia oblast, cutting off the bulk of Ukrainian forces in Ukraine’s eastern third. 

Well oops, nothing was happening down south, so those forces in Izyum started pushing toward the twin fortress cities of Kramatorsk/Sloviansk while attempting to break Ukrainian defenses around Donetsk city. The goal at that point was to cut off Ukrainian defenses on that Donbas line of contact. But then the push out of Izyum fizzled, and by June, Russia was excited merely to capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. 

So what’s the goal today? There is none, just a mindless push westward, regardless of the cost.

The Soledar-Bakhmut push has become all-consuming at a time when Russia is running out of gear and ammunition. CNN reports that “Russia’s artillery fire is down dramatically from its wartime high, in some places by as much as 75 percent.” Also, this tracks with what I’ve written before: 

US and Ukrainian officials have offered widely different estimates of Russian fire, with US officials saying the rate has dropped from 20,000 rounds per day to around 5,000 per day on average. Ukraine estimates that the rate has dropped from 60,000 to 20,000 per day.

Ukraine has every reason to exaggerate Russia’s shell usage in order to spur aid deliveries. But regardless who is right, the trend is clear, and it’s confirmed anecdotally by both sides.

The reason some areas are seeing a 75% drop in Russian artillery is because the invaders are sending almost everything they have left to Soledar. It may not be their last gasp, but it’s certainly a massive gamble for little payoff.

Soledar and Bakhmut are just two of many, many, well-entrenched Ukrainian cities. If Russia eventually manages to take these two, Ukraine merely falls back to the next position, while Russia must extend their supply lines yet further away from their all-important railheads. What then? Russia has been able to tolerate the human cost in large part because it’s been shouldered by jailed criminals. But Wagner is running out of prison conscripts. And Russia can only hide the overall death toll for so long, particularly as its economy is finally starting to buckle under the weight of sanctions and collapsing energy prices.