The Reason Capturing Kreminna Is Crucial For Ukraine

While global attention has focused on Bakhmut, the small city of Kreminna is the key to Ukraine's effort at retaking the Donbas due to its location. 

Ukrainian forces are making headway around Kreminna, even as they defend Bakhmut and wait for additional troops to complete training on the new weapons NATO is providing. This is a heavy burden to bear but last year's successes suggest it is also the right strategy. JL

Howard Altman reports in The Drive:

An ongoing counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces in the small city of Kreminna has the potential of breaking things open in the Donbas. Kreminna sits about midway along the P-66 Highway, a key roadway running from Svatove in the north and to Novoaidar to the east.  “Kreminna is a gateway to the north and central Luhansk region. And it allows us to hit the flank of Bakhmut.” The Kreminna offensive comes as Russian forces are attempting to “refit, recruit and reinitiate operations.” Ukrainian forces are making “incremental gains” in their efforts to recapture Kreminna.

In a war that has ground down to a bloody static slog, an ongoing counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces in the small city of Kreminna has the potential of breaking things open in the Donbas.

“Kreminna is a gateway to the north and central Luhansk region,” a Ukrainian military advisor told The War Zone on Monday. “And it allows us to hit the flank of Bakhmut,” the embattled city in Donetsk Oblast some 30 miles to the southwest.

The assessment of the advisor, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss tactical operations, was shared Sunday by Serhiy Hayday, the Ukrainian governor of Luhansk Oblast.

“Meter by meter, our defenders are de-occupying the Luhansk Region,” Hayday said on his Telegram channel. “When the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberate Kreminna, the way to Rubizhne and Severodonetsk will open. And there is a possibility that the Russians will flee from the temporary regional center when we get close to Severodonetsk.”

Kreminna sits about midway along the P-66 Highway, a key roadway running from Svatove in the north and to Novoaidar to the east.

 

“We maintain fire control over the Svatove-Kreminna highway,” Hayday wrote. “Ork [Russian] logistics are significantly disrupted.”

Kreminna's location makes it an important target for Ukraine. (Google Earth image)

The biggest impediment at the moment to recapturing Kreminna is “the dense minefield of the territory,” Hayday said.

Kreminna was the first city to fall when Russia relaunched its Donbas offensive in April after Moscow’s initial plan to conquer Kyiv failed. And now it is one of the two hottest areas being contested across a long front running from the Kinburn Spit in Mikolaiv Oblast to the Donbas, a senior U.S. military official said Monday.

“The situation along the front lines in Ukraine continues to remain largely static, with the exceptions of being Ukraine's counter offensive operations efforts near Kreminna and Russia's continued efforts to try to take territory near Bakhmut,” the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters, including from The War Zone. “In both areas, the situation remains fluid with a lot of back and forth. It is important to note however that Ukrainian forces continue to successfully hold and defend Bakhmut.”

 

The official told The War Zone that Ukrainian forces are making “some incremental gains” in their efforts to recapture Kreminna, where more than 18,000 people used to live before Russia’s full-on invasion. “It is just one example of the Ukrainians looking to exploit opportunities along the Russian defensive lines, and our focus is on trying to get them the security assistance they need to be able to take advantage and exploit those kinds of opportunities.”

The Kreminna offensive comes as Russian forces are attempting to “refit, recruit and reinitiate operations,” the official said, ahead of a potentially looming new wave of attacks in the spring. 

And while the U.S. is training about 500 Ukrainian troops on combined arms maneuvers in Germany, the official said the Kreminna offensive shows that Ukraine is not waiting for those troops to cycle through the training to attack.

 

Ukraine’s hold on Bakhmut, where both sides are taking tremendous casualties, is tenuous, however.

The senior U.S. military official declined to comment on last week’s assessment by German intelligence that Ukraine is losing “a three-digit number of soldiers every day” defending Bakhmut.

When asked to confirm a statement Norwegian Defense Minister Eirik Kristoffersen made Sunday to Norway’s TV2 that "Russian losses are beginning to approach around 180,000 dead or wounded soldiers,” the official deferred to comments made by Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff on Friday that Russia has taken “significantly well over” 100,000 casualties.

 

To the Ukrainians, Bakhmut is important not only because it is their country, but because even at a high cost, they are keeping the Russians bogged down and bleeding. Russia is largely relying on the Wagner mercenary group in Bakmut, but is also pouring in tens of thousands of additional troops across all the front lines, the senior U.S. official said.

How all this affects Ukraine’s larger strategic goal of liberating the entire country, including Crimea, remains unknown and the senior U.S. military official declined to speculate.