What Happens When Ukrainian Forces Reach Pre-2014 Borders With Russia?

This is no longer in the realm of fantasy: in many parts of Donbas Ukraine and Russia are fighting from trenches that date back to 2014. 

Ukraine will not invade Russia, though it could take back Crimea. Achieving that would be a such a humiliation that it would probably signal Putin's removal. Russia might never give up and an uncomfortable South Korea/North Korea - Israel/Lebanon,Syria cold war could ensue. Whatever the details, the equation is no longer about Ukraine's survival, but how it is integrated into NATO and what becomes of what's left of Russia and its next government. JL

Peter Olandt reports in Daily Kos:

I am optimistic they will be reached before the end of 2023. What does that mean?  It first means the Russian Army has been soundly defeated and is in poor shape.  Second, it means Ukraine switches back to the defensive.  They will not march on Moscow.  Artillery duels might continue, but if Ukraine has gotten this far their artillery is most likely far superior to Russia’s.  Once borders are reclaimed, air defenses can be focused.  I expect more new dedicated anti-drones systems. More expensive anti-missile systems can focus on cruise and ballistic missiles.  Decreasing Russian stocks combined with better Ukrainian defenses will cut the rate of successful strikes.It’s nice to see people have migrated from wondering if Ukraine can survive at all to wondering how to get Russia to stop lobbing missiles into it after Ukraine reaches the pre-2014 borders.  I’d like to examine one of those scenarios.  I will assume that the pre-2014 borders are reached by the end of 2023 and there are no cataclysmic events (such as nuclear war) that make predictions impossible.  I am personally optimistic they will be reached long before the end of 2023, but so long as critical dynamics don’t change in the next year I don’t think the exact timing will effect the post liberation dynamic.

So if we reach the point where Ukraine has taken back everything (without the Russians choosing to end the war) what does that mean?  It first means the Russian Army has been soundly defeated in the field and should be in extremely poor shape.  Second, it means Ukraine switches back to the defensive.  They will not march on Moscow and other than border skirmishes have little need to cross into Russia itself.  Artillery duels might continue, but if Ukraine has gotten this far their artillery is most likely far superior to Russia’s. 

Artillery duels, while deadly for the participants, will not pose a threat to the majority of Ukrainians nor hinder an economic recovery away from the border.  So that leaves us with continued missile and drone strikes.  Russia’s own supply has dwindled to the point that they are repurposing cruise missiles intended to carry nuclear warheads and are instead replacing the warhead with an equal inert mass (the mass has to be replaced as the missiles are designed to function with it and would be unbalanced without it).  With sanctions Russia is finding it difficult to build high tech missiles and can really only continue producing the equivalent of pre-1980s systems (or thereabouts).

I have not heard how deep Iran’s stockpile of missiles and drones are, but they are not bottomless.  Once borders are reclaimed and the army switches to defense, the air defenses can be focused on even more than they are now.  I expect more new dedicated anti-drones systems to come out and existing systems repurposed to anti-drone use.  Then the more expensive anti-missile systems can focus on the cruise and ballistic missiles.  Decreasing Russian stocks combined with better Ukrainian defenses will cut the rate of successful strikes.  I imagine it will become more in line with the daily life that parts of Israel has experienced at times with regular bombings and mortar attacks.

At this point even Putin, if he somehow holds on, would have to start questioning the value of continuing.  After being kicked out the Russian army will not be powerful enough to launch a successful attack on Ukraine for many years, and possibly never.  Russia under sanctions will be unable to match the armaments in quality or quantity that Ukraine will be able to get.  Furthermore, Ukraine is developing its own missile systems and at some point will no longer need to ask permission from the West to launch a missile into Russia.  

Russia would also need to worry about Ukraine sponsoring pro-democracy revolts in Russia.  It’s possible Ukraine has already been supplying the Free Russian Legion (or similar organization) with intel and materials needed to carry out the “accidents” we are seeing deep inside Russia.  With no longer needing to supply a major offensive for itself, Ukraine can send whatever old Russian equipment is left to rebels inside Russia.

Russia will also be less able to bully its other neighbors so long as it is in a conflict with Ukraine and under sanctions.  While I don’t see China taking land, border skirmishes could happen with the former Soviet states.  Being in constant conflict will also weaken Russia’s position in any negotiations with China.  Every humiliation of Putin on the international stage will dig at him.

So Russia will be faced with what should be an easy choice.  They can continue to lob missiles into Ukraine with no hope of ever winning and making themselves eternal international pariahs with continued sanctions further hurting their economy and drastically reduced income from fossil fuels.  Or they can sign a peace treaty to stop attacking Ukraine and have sanctions gradually lifted and they get on with the massive rebuilding of the Russian economy and bringing their military up to some level of respectability.

We’ve seen Russia continue to make poor military decisions and continue a losing war primarily because Putin is doing whatever he can to stay in power, and he thinks continuing the war will do that.  But once Russia is fully kicked out of Ukraine with no hope of getting back in, the calculus should shift.  Perhaps it might become something like North Korea where the war official goes on even though hostilities stop.  This would allow Putin to continue to pretend to be doing whatever it is he’s pretending to be doing right now.  He could institute a permanent bunker mentality similar to that of the North Koreans.  But the only smart move for Russia in general is for Putin to finally change his mind and give up, or be ousted and the new ruler declares peace and blames it all on Putin.

But I do not see perpetual successful strikes on Ukraine being possible.  Ukraine continues to improve in all areas and Russia continues to sink.  That is the dynamic.  The current stage of some strikes being successful is a temporary one.  Eventually Russia will lack the capacity to get an appreciable quantity strikes through.