Wagner Troops At Bakhmut Unable To Attack, Removed Due To "Heavy" Losses

Wagner forces attacking Ukrainian positions around Bakhmut have become so 'degraded' that they are no longer capable of offensive operations and now require reinforcement from conventional Russian army units. 

Taking Bakhmut was Putin lackey Prigozhin's prize objective and he permitted no regular Russian army units involved in that sector. But Wagner has frittered away its troops in senseless assaults on dug-in Ukrainian positions. That Wagner is now being replaced by regular troops is a humiliation for Prigozhin and a sign of Ukraine's strength. JL

Isabel van Brugen reports in Newsweek:

Wagner Group around Bakhmut have culminated—the point at which an attacking military force can no longer continue its advance. The Wagner Group has suffered heavy losses in the city. "Conventional Russian military supporting Wagner Group elements in Bakhmut—after Wagner took efforts to emphasize it exclusively is responsible for the Bakhmut sector—would be consistent with indicators for the Wagner Group forces' culmination. Wagner Group forces were mainly serving an attritional role around Bakhmut and had become degraded to a "near-debilitating extent" and "needed reinforcement from more conventional Russian elements."

The battle for Bakhmut appears to be on the brink as mercenary unit, the Wagner Group, has suffered heavy losses in the city in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The U.S.-based think tank said Wednesday that there are several indicators that support the assessment that Russian forces and members of the Wagner Group around Bakhmut have culminated—the point at which an attacking military force can no longer continue its advance.

On December 24, the ISW had said that the Wagner Group's reported heavy losses in the area in recent weeks had likely "strained" Russian forces' current operational capabilities in Bakhmut.

Russian forces in the region have been led by members of the mercenary unit, the Wagner Group, founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In its daily assessment of the Ukraine war, the ISW said Russian airborne forces (VDV) have reportedly been augmenting Wagner Group operations around Bakhmut, citing a Russian source that reported that Wagner and VDV elements conducted joint operations in the city on Tuesday.

 

"The report, if true, marks an inflection given that the Wagner Group has been conducting information operations to assert that the Wagner Group forces exclusively are operating in Bakhmut," the think tank wrote. "The conventional Russian military supporting Wagner Group elements in Bakhmut—after Wagner took efforts to emphasize it exclusively is responsible for the Bakhmut sector—would be consistent with indicators for the Wagner Group forces' culmination."

The ISW said it has previously assessed that Wagner Group forces were mainly serving an attritional role around Bakhmut and had therefore likely become degraded to a "near-debilitating extent" and "needed reinforcement from more conventional Russian elements."

"High rates of attrition amongst the forces responsible for the offensive on Bakhmut may expedite the culmination unless notable numbers of regular Russian military units are sent to sustain the offensive and delay or avert its culmination," it concluded.

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had said that the intensifying battle for Bakhmut was taking a heavy toll on Russian forces while remaining the "hottest spot" in the war.

Serhiy Haidai, governor of the Russian-occupied Luhansk region, said on his Telegram channel on Monday that thousands of Russian troops had died in the battle for Bakhmut.

The region has been a focal point of the Russian offensive for several months.

 

Jon Roozenbeek, a British Academy postdoctoral fellow at the University of Cambridge, previously told Newsweek that taking the town would be symbolic for Russia as it would enable Putin to show some form of military victory.

Roozenbeek said that the town itself, which had a pre-war population of 70,000, doesn't hold a lot of strategic value, but the location does. He explained that taking Bakhmut would enable Putin's troops to launch artillery strikes on key places, such as the cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk in the Donetsk region.

Ukraine's Ministry of Defense published a video on Wednesday showing a Ukrainian helicopter firing flares over Bakhmut.

"Bakhmut is for those who have guts. Bakhmut is the city of heroes. We will never surrender. We will win," the ministry tweeted.