Ukraine Continues To Press Its Advance In Donbas - And By Missile Further Afield

As their long range weapons capability increases, the Ukrainians are opening up a 'third front,' attacking Russian air bases from which suicide drones and bombers carrying missiles are launched. 

On the ground, as the weather turns colder, soldiers carrying antitank weapons are again attacking Russian tanks which are devoid of cover and forced to remain on paved roads as they were when the invasion began. And the results are similar. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

In addition to explosions at the airport outside Berdyansk, there are now reported explosions underway at the airport in occupied Melitopol. Berdyansk has been one of the sites from which drones and Russian planes carrying missiles have been directing attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns. Ukrainian forces are reporting that they are still advancing on all sides of Kreminna. This last week has seen a lot of human portable anti-tank weapons at work again, like in the early days of the war. What those two times have in common is a lot of mud, and very few leaves. So armored vehicles are largely confined to paved roads while remaining highly visible.
Berdyansk is down on the Azov coast, 70km west of Mariupol. It was also the location where Ukraine first hit Russian ships in harbor, taking out a landing ship and making Russia rethink the safety of its naval fleet. This time it’s the airport that’s been hit—and apparently hit hard.

 

While this attack on military planes at the Berdyansk airport is certainly reminiscent of how Ukraine repeatedly pounded the airport west of Kherson, this isn’t necessarily a sign of where Ukrainian forces mean to go next. That’s particularly true because Berdyansk has reportedly been one of the sites from which drones and Russian planes carrying missiles have been directing attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns. So this may speak a lot more to saving lives far from the front than to securing control over the air in advance of a ground attack.

 

In addition to the explosions at the airport outside Berdyansk, there are now reported explosions underway at the airport in occupied Melitopol. Again, it’s unclear if this is preparatory to other actions, or intended to reduce Russian drone / missile attacks on civilian locations.

Russia is claiming that it has counterattacked Ukrainian forces in the Serebryanskyy forest south of Kreminna with propagandists insisting that Ukraine has been dislodged from positions that were only 2km outside of Kreminna. 

At the same time, Ukrainian forces are reporting that they are still advancing on all sides of Kreminna, following an earlier report that “good news” is expected in the area today.

We should know who is right very soon.

UPDATE: Thursday, Dec 8, 2022 · 11:52:19 AM EST · Mark Sumner

Details are just now appearing of an assault Ukraine appears to have made in the Donetsk area several days ago. Ukraine forces, moving out of the town of Pervomaiske and toward the town of Pisky reportedly included about 15 vehicles and 50 soldiers.

Donetsk Area. Open in another tab for a larger view.

Unfortunately, though the assault did reportedly overrun some Russian positions and trenches, it seems to have become stuck west of Pisky after encountering a minefield and suffered significant losses.  There doesn’t appear to have been any attempt to strike the minefield in advance of the movement, which could be either an intelligence or planning failure. While not a major assault, the number of vehicles and men involved certainly puts this above the kind of “feeling out” that both sides are undertaking regularly. 

This last week has seen a lot of examples of human portable anti-tank weapons at work again, very like the videos seen in the early days of the war. What do those two times have in common? Well, there’s a lot of mud, and there are very few leaves. So armored vehicles are largely confined to moving down well-established paved roads while remaining highly visible. 

What do you get in those conditions?

This week, more of Russia’s most advanced tanks (or at least, the most advanced tanks that have ever done more than participate in parades), showed up in Ukraine. So far, Russia has lost 34 T-90A and T-90M tanks in their illegal invasion. Compared to the 352 documented T-80 variants that have been lost or destroyed, and the 1545 Russian tanks that Oryx has documented overall, that’s a pretty small fraction. But then, T-90s have been a small fraction of the tanks making it to Ukraine. Russia has supposedly built somewhere close to 1,000 tanks in the T-90 series, but it wasn’t until the summer that the first one turned up in Kharkiv—and was almost immediately destroyed. 

So a batch of T-90 tanks showing up in Ukraine might seem significant for those pro-Russian advocates of the “finally, Russia is sending their good stuff, now Ukraine is going to get it!” school of wishful thinking. Only these particular tanks are not T-90A models or the more updated T-90M. These are T-90S tanks, a tank that Russia produces strictly for export.

Russia has previously shipped between 200 and 300 T-90S tanks to countries like Egypt and Vietnam, and those it has on hand were supposed to go to other military customers. Keeping up that flow of exports is important for two reasons: 1. Russia needs the cash, and 2. After the display that’s been going on in Ukraine, it’s not like new customers are lining up to get those fine Russian military products. So Russia really needs to ship these T-90S tanks to their new homes.

Instead, some of them are going into Ukraine. This speaks to nothing so much as the crunch Russia is under to put operational armor on the front line.

There’s also this little factor: the T-90S is significantly different than other tanks in the series. It has different electronics, different firing controls, and even a different engine. So using these tanks in the field requires having mechanics who are capable of servicing these systems, as well as a set of spare parts to deal with the inevitable breakdowns.

And if there’s anything that has really defined this war for Russia, it’s their skill with logistics...

This morning, the head of the Luhansk Oblast military administration made a statement on Telegram reporting Ukraine was advancing along the line between Svatove and Kreminna and that “good news from Luhansk Oblast is expected soon.” 

Meanwhile, in Bakhmut, Russian forces have managed to capture the window factory and the city garbage dump. Seriously. That’s still how things are being measured at Bakhmut.

There continue to be reports of people expecting a more significant advance at Bakhmut. If it comes, it’s likely to be Ukraine making the motion, because there’s still no sign that Russia can put together an action larger than a couple of units. At the moment, the fire continues to be intense, with the usual exchange of artillery and the Russians sending waves of men forward, but nothing really seems to have changed in either tactics or scale.