Putin Cannot BAck Down In Ukraine Because His Personal Survival Is At Risk

Russia has lost its reputation as a global military power. The only question is how long Putin can maintain his grip on the leadership through subterfuge and terror. JL

Zoe Strozewski reports in Newsweek:

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not currently in a situation where he can achieve top objectives in his war in Ukraine, but he also can't back out of the conflict because his "personal survival" is at stake. The Russian leader "has essentially already lost the strategic engagement" in Ukraine. Putin does not seem capable of meeting strategic goals like taking the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and capturing the entire Black Sea coast, including the port city of Odessa. Russia has lost its image as a superior military power.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not currently in a situation where he can achieve top objectives in his war in Ukraine, but he also can't back out of the conflict because his "personal survival" is at stake, retired four-star U.S. Army General Barry McCaffrey said this week.

Many expected the Russian army to secure a quick victory when Putin launched his invasion of the Eastern European country on February 24 after months of military buildup on Ukraine's border. However, more than 300 days and 100,000 estimated Russian troop losses later, Russia has lost its image as the superior military power.

During an appearance on MSNBC on Wednesday, McCaffrey said the Russian leader "has essentially already lost the strategic engagement" in Ukraine. Putin does not seem capable of meeting strategic goals like taking the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and capturing the entire Black Sea coast, including the port city of Odessa, McCaffrey said.Yuri Zhukov, an associate professor of political science at the University of Michigan, offered a slightly similar assessment, but stressed that Putin's current inability to achieve key objectives may change in the future.

If Russia does launch another offensive to take Kyiv in the spring of 2023—Putin's initial bid to claim the capital at the start of the war in February did not succeed—it is not likely to end in success, Zhukov told Newsweek on Thursday. But this would have the utility of forcing Ukraine to divert resources from other parts of the conflict to defend Kyiv, creating opportunities for Russia to potentially make advances in the south and east.

Zhukov said that a similar situation is already taking place as Russia conducts waves of strikes against Ukraine's critical infrastructure, forcing the war-torn country to decide between supporting its military effort or defending civilian centers.

"Putin is playing the long game," Zhukov said. "Having failed to deliver a decisive knock-out punch in the war's opening phase, he is betting that a protracted conflict will play to Russia's advantage. This is not an unreasonable assumption, since a long war will require sustained and escalating Western military aid, and political support for such assistance is waning in Europe and the U.S."

He also cited the negative reactions by some members of Congress to a visit Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made to Washington D.C. earlier this week. Republicans in particular took aim at Zelensky's pleas for additional aid so that Ukraine can continue to fight off Russia's aggression.

"If Ukraine is unable to replace its losses with new equipment and resources from the West, the steady attrition from Russia's attacks will eventually take its toll, making it very difficult for Ukraine to hold ground, much less liberate territories already occupied by the Russians," Zhukov said. "That is how Putin wins. He doesn't need to back down, or to capture Kyiv. He just needs to drag things out, and wait for Western political support to collapse."

The House of Representatives passed a $1.7 trillion spending bill on Friday that includes $45 billion in additional funds for Ukraine. It remains unclear how future U.S. attempts to provide aid to Ukraine may play out as Republicans, some of whom oppose funneling more money into the country, will have a slim majority in the House early next year.