A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Dec 6, 2022

How Ukrainian Air Defenses And Winter Limiting Russia's Ability To Continue Fighting

Improved Ukrainian air defense and Russia's reliance on sub-optimal visual guidance as well as unguided 'dumb' munitions are making it difficult for Russia to mount air support for ground attacks. 

This, in turn, reduces the chances of success for Russia's continued invasion of Ukraine because these handicaps increase the risk for Russian troops and limit their ability to prevail. JL 

Isabel Van Brugen reports in Newsweek:

In recent months, the number of sudden attacks by Russian tactical combat aircraft over Ukraine has "reduced significantly." Russian attacks are being limited by Ukrainian air defenses and the colder winter weather. Putin's air force is now conducting tens of missions daily, after losing more than 60 fixed-wing aircraft since the conflict began. In March, Russia was flying 300 missions a day in Ukraine. "With Russia's ground attack tactics reliant on visual identification and unguided munitions, the Russian air force will continue a low rate of ground attacks through the winter weather."

Russian attacks are being limited by Ukrainian air defenses and the colder winter weather, Britain's defense ministry said on Monday.

In recent months, the number of sudden attacks by Russian tactical combat aircraft over Ukraine has "reduced significantly," the ministry said in its daily intelligence update on the war in Ukraine, which is in its 10th month.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's air force is now likely conducting just tens of missions daily, after losing more than 60 fixed-wing aircraft since the conflict began on February 24, according to the ministry's latest intelligence assessment.In March, Russia was flying a high of 300 missions a day in Ukraine, the report said, noting that last week, the Russians lost an additional Su-24M FENCER fighter-bomber and a Su-25 FROGFOOT ground attack aircraft.

The ministry said Russian attacks by air will likely remain limited amid colder weather conditions.

"The decrease in sorties is likely a result of continued high threat from Ukrainian air defences, limitations on the flying hours available to Russian aircraft, and worsening weather," Monday's update said.

"With Russia's ground attack tactics largely reliant on visual identification and unguided munitions, the Russian air force will likely continue a low rate of ground attack operations through the poor winter weather."

The latest assessment comes shortly after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the winter will "be difficult" for Ukrainian troops.

"The enemy [Russia] really hopes to use winter against us: to make winter cold and hardship part of his terror," Zelensky said in an address to the nation on Sunday night. "We have to do everything to endure this winter, no matter how hard it is. And we will endure. To endure this winter is to defend everything."

Zelensky said Ukrainian forces have "the strongest motivation possible."

"We defend our home....We fight for freedom, and that always multiplies any force. We defend the truth, and this unites the whole world around Ukraine.

 

"To get through this winter, we have to help each other more than ever and care for each other even more. We have to be even more resilient and even more united than ever. There can be no internal conflicts and strife, which can weaken us all."

Max Bergmann, the director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said Ukrainian soldiers likely have the upper hand in the war this winter, in terms of equipment and clothing.

"What we're seeing is that the Russian conscripts that are being thrown to the front, many of them have very little equipment, they're sent without basic necessities like food," he previously told Newsweek.

"[In] winter you need more gear, you need winter weather gear, you need the ability to stay warm. So, actually the demands on forces on the field increases, and my guess is that the Ukrainians are going to be quite well prepared for this, while I'm not sure a newly mobilized Russian force will be.

 

"And this is where difficulty in getting supplies to the front, which are sort of these attacks that the Ukrainians are doing, would make it quite difficult for the Russians."



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