How Ukraine - and NATO - Have Cut Russia's Artillery Advantage

Ukraine is increasingly using better quality NATO standard artillery with smart munitions - and they have proven very effective at deploying the weapons they have in creative, accurate ways. 

Also, the Russians are running low on everything. JL 

Howard Altman reports in The Drive:

As both sides continue to fire thousands of artillery rounds at each other every day, Russia’s vast numerical superiority is diminishing. “The Russian ability to outpace the Ukrainians in artillery has decreased in the ratio at which the Russians have been able to out-shoot the Ukrainians. Part of that is due to Russian munitions numbers. It's also due in to Ukrainian effectiveness with the employment of their artillery and to identify Russian artillery and radars."

Even before Russia launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine, artillery has played a large role in the conflict there, dating back to shortly after Moscow’s initial incursion into the Donbas back in 2014. The use of artillery of course drastically increased after Feb. 24, with Russia able to fire off far more rounds than Ukraine thanks to an overwhelming advantage both in the numbers of tubes and shells available.

 

But as both sides continue to fire thousands of artillery rounds at each other every day, Russia’s vast numerical superiority is diminishing, a senior U.S. military official told reporters, including from The War Zone, Tuesday morning.

 

“The Russian ability to outpace the Ukrainians in artillery is nothing new,” said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity. “That has decreased over time in terms of the ratio at which the Russians have been able to out-shoot the Ukrainians. Part of that is probably due to Russian munitions numbers. It's also due in part to Ukrainian effectiveness with the employment of their artillery and some of their systems. The ability of the Ukrainians to identify Russian artillery systems and Russian radars has been pretty effective and they've been combining the use of not just their tube artillery, but as you know, the [M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or] HIMARS and the employment of [Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System, or] GMLRS to get after the Russian artillery effectiveness.

The other piece to the equation, the official said, is the types of artillery being used by Ukraine.

While the U.S. and allies have provided some 350 howitzers - including 142 155mm and 36 105mm howitzers from the U.S. alone - Ukraine also employs old Soviet artillery using 152mm and 122mm rounds.

And therein lies a conundrum of sorts for Ukraine.

All told, the U.S. alone has provided more than one million rounds of howitzer ammunition, including up to 903,000 standard 155mm howitzer rounds as well as 3,000 M982 Excalibur guided rounds, 7,000 Remote Anti-Armor Mine System (RAAMS) projectiles, and 180,000 105mm howitzer shells.

But Ukraine has more 152mm tubes than 155mm tubes, with less ammunition for them, something it is attempting to address with newly launched domestic production of an undisclosed number of 152mm rounds.

Ukroboronprom, the Ukrainian state defense production agency, previously said it established the production of 122mm and 152mm artillery shells, as well as 120mm mines.

"They noted that these shells have been successfully tested and are manufactured using NATO technology," according to Ukrainian Pravda.

"Production is distributed at various facilities, including those belonging to partner countries. Ammunition produced by Ukroboronprom should reduce the dependence of Ukrainian artillery on supplies from abroad, where stocks of shells and mines of Soviet calibers are gradually running out. 

“The stockpiles of those munitions, depending on the type, varies,” said the senior U.S. military official. “We certainly are keeping an eye on this. And our Ukrainian partners talk to us clearly about their employment.”

But even with so many 155mm rounds provided to Ukraine by the U.S. and its allies, the supply is not unlimited and there is a scramble to feed the need of both sides as they burn through shells at an unsustainable pace. That has the U.S. and Russia each turning to allies on the Korean peninsula for more shells. Pakistan has been another source for Ukraine via its NATO backers. You can read our full report on that unique arrangement here.

Ukraine, however, is at least attempting to temper the number of shells it fires, the senior U.S. military official said.

“We establish in our military something called a controlled supply rate,” said the official. “And the Ukrainians in this case have done similar things. And what that does is it allows you to manage your total ammunition supplies, with a view that if you go above the control supply rate, it may impact you down the road. But again, you plan against some of that.”

Speaking of massive artillery volleys, the senior U.S. military official said that the remake of All Quiet On The Western Front, released by Netflix last month, brings to mind what is taking place in Ukraine now, especially in Bakhmut. The official continues, stating “You have these two sides that are facing off. They're attempting to pummel each other with artillery. They use the artillery to provide them an opportunity to move people forward. But then once they get to that spot, the other side is trying to do the same. I'm not supposed to give any endorsements out there … but I watched the remake of All Quiet On The Western Front over the holidays ... which was really, really well done. And all I could think while I was watching that … [was] I've been around for a while [and] like my peers have been under fire before. But I don't think we can compare [that] to what Ukrainians are going through right now. And if you look at All Quiet On The Western Front, and you see that and the devastation in a movie, and then you transpose that into what's going on day to day, on the Ukrainian battlefield, it's pretty staggering.”