As Combat Pace Increases With Winter Freeze, Russia Doesn't Have Enough Troops

Mud season in Ukraine in ending and the ground is beginning to freeze, making it easier for heavy military equipment to maneuver. This will likely lead to an increase in combat, especially in Donbas.

But Russia doesn't have enough troops either to attack or to defend against Ukrainian forces, raising questions about what they will do against the better-equipped and trained Ukrainians. JL 

Khaleda Rahman reports in Newsweek:

The overall pace of military operations in Ukraine may increase in the coming weeks but as temperatures drop and the ground freezes." (But) Russia is unlikely to be able to gather forces of sufficient quality to capture the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. Russia has ramped up its attacks on Ukraine's critical infrastructure after suffering a series of battlefield setbacks nine months into its invasion. "However, Russia is unlikely to be able to concentrate sufficient quality forces to achieve an operational breakthrough."

Russia is unlikely to be able to gather forces of sufficient quality to capture the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, Britain's military intelligence said on Saturday.

Both Russia and Ukraine have committed "significant forces" to the area around the towns of Pavlivka and Vuhledar in south-central Donetsk Oblast, the U.K's defense ministry said in its daily intelligence update posted on Twitter.

Although the area "has been the scene of intense combat" in the past two weeks, little territory has changed hands, according to the ministry.

 

"This area remains heavily contested, likely partially because Russia assesses the area has potential as a launch point for a future major advance north to capture the remainder of Ukrainian-held Donetsk Oblast," it said.

"However, Russia is unlikely to be able to concentrate sufficient quality forces to achieve an operational breakthrough."

It comes as Russia has ramped up its attacks on Ukraine's critical infrastructure after suffering a series of battlefield setbacks nine months into its invasion of the country.

On Saturday, British defense officials said Russia's forces was resorting to removing nuclear warheads from ageing nuclear cruise missiles to fire at targets in Ukraine, saying it highlighted Russia's dwindling supply of missiles.

Winter War To Intensify as Ground Freezes

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said that the overall pace of military operations in Ukraine may increase in the coming weeks.

In its latest assessment on Saturday, the U.S.-based think tank said that operations have slowed in recent days to due to worsening weather conditions, but are "likely to increase starting in the next few weeks as temperatures drop and the ground freezes."