Why New Putin Threats Are A Sign Of Desperation, Not Strength

The Ukrainians have consistently demonstrated better training, better strategy, better communications and better competence. 

If Russia is even capable of mobilizing 300,000 additional troops - a BIG if - it is not apparent that they will be any better led, equipped or motivated than their slaughtered predecessors. JL 

Mick Ryan reports in War In the Future:

The Ukrainians are competent. No military this century has had to fight across all the domains of war concurrently, and do so against a larger and better armed adversary. Their most important preparation for this war was not physical but intellectual.They have attacked the Russians at their weak points, destroyed their logistics, and killed as many Russian battlefield leaders as possible. At the strategic level, their global influence campaign has set a new benchmark for effectiveness. This Ukrainian competence has resulted in a military institution that is now without peer in the art and science of 21st century warfare.The last two weeks have answered a central question of the Russo-Ukraine War; can Ukraine undertake the offensives required to liberate their people & reoccupy their territory? They have answered this question emphatically with their Kharkiv offensive.

 

During this offensive, I had the opportunity to visit #Ukraine and to speak with high level military and government officials. I took away three key observations from the visit.First, the Ukrainians are competent. This is a gross understatement. No military this century has had to fight across all the domains of war concurrently, and do so against a larger and better armed adversary.Their most important preparation for this war was not physical but intellectual. They re-trained their troops away from Soviet centralised command methods to adopt more decentralised C2. This has been a clear difference between the two belligerents.

 

Beyond this, the Ukrainians have adopted what I have described elsewhere as a strategy of corrosion. They have attacked the Russians at their weak points constantly, destroyed their logistics, and slowly killed as many Russian battlefield leaders as possible.At the strategic level, their global influence campaign has set a new benchmark for effectiveness. This Ukrainian competence has resulted in a military institution that is now without peer in the art and science of 21st century warfare.

 

Second, the Ukrainians are proud of their national effort - military, civil, diplomatic and informational - to defend their nation against the depredations of the murderous, yet bungling, Russian Army.It is not a pride that features flag waving and empty patriotic gestures. It is a quiet, humble pride that one finds in the alert posture of every soldier, and confident step of the officials and military officers with whom I met.

 

Finally, the Ukrainians are confident. They know they can win this war. Zelensky stated that “we don’t believe there is compromise when it comes to Russia. There are only conditions, especially the departure of Russia from Ukraine.”Partially, this is a result of their achievements in the Battles of Kyiv, Kharkiv and elsewhere. The Ukrainians have seized the strategic initiative in this war, and are taking back huge swathes of their territory from the Russians.

 

But there is another more vital source of their confidence; the Ukrainians know exactly what they are fighting for. They fight for their people and their country. And they believe strongly that they are fighting for the larger idea that all democracies matter.Every single Ukrainian interlocutor I met with in Kyiv had but a single message; give us the right tools in the right quantity to get the job done. They know they can beat the Russians, but appreciate that this is predicated on continued western aid.The coming winter is an opportunity for the west to surge its support to Ukraine. President Zelensky noted in our talks, “we are not after countries compromising their own security, but we need more military assistance.”

 

There was a consistent message in what is needed: air defence; tanks and armoured infantry fighting vehicles; long range fires; soldier equipment; UAVs; and, counter UAV systems.Some in the west talk of the limits of Ukraine to absorb additional military aid. But Ukrainians know themselves, and this war, better than any western official, and have mastered modern war to a degree not achieved in any western military. We should defer to their judgement.The coming months are an opportunity for Australia and others to demonstrate true commitment to Ukraine and their victory over Russia. This is an even more compelling need if Russia does begin to mobilise.