Russia's Sudden Ukraine Collapse Is A Huge Embarrassment For China

Xi Jiping doubled down on his support for Putin, thinking that the Russians were as strong as they appeared to be. That miscalculation reflects badly on Xi, already worried about the Chinese economy which has been negatively impacted by China's failure to address the Covid pandemic when it first appeared. 

That's a lot of mistakes for one strongman. JL

Hal Brands reports in Twitter:

Xi Jinping is probably dismayed that Putin launched such a ham-handed, incompetent invasion of Ukraine so soon after signing the "no limits" declaration; in part because that invasion has already created strategic blowback for Beijing (more US/democratic concern about Taiwan, increased defense spending in Indo-Pacific, explicit threats of sanctions if China comes to Russia's rescue). Beijing cannot sit by and see Russia defeated in Ukraine, because that will lead to a severely weakened Russia that is a less useful ally and less able to distract Washington, and could create political instability in Moscow.If Russia's battlefield situation in Ukraine is as bad as it seems, it will create serious dilemmas for China. A thread:

 

My view has long been that: a) Xi Jinping is probably dismayed that Putin launched such a ham-handed, incompetent invasion of Ukraine so soon after signing the "no limits" declaration; in part because that invasion has already created strategic blowback for Beijing (more US/democratic concern about Taiwan, increased defense spending in Indo-Pacific, explicit threats of sanctions if China comes to Russia's rescue); but c) Beijing cannot calmly sit by and see Russia defeated in Ukraine, because that will lead (at a minimum) to a severely weakened Russia that is a less useful ally and less able to distract Washington, and (at a maximum) could create political instability in Moscow.

 

At an extreme, of course, political instability in Moscow could create instability within the "strategic partnership" in which Xi has invested so much.This, by the way, was why America's best option for sticking it to China right now has always been to ensure that Russia loses in Ukraine--it leaves Xi in a place where we have no good options.

 

We will soon see whether this judgment about China's role in the Ukraine crisis is correct.You can bet that, as Russia's position deteriorates, Putin will look for increased Chinese support. If Beijing doesn't find a way of providing some such support, we could see greater strains in the Sino-Russian partnership sooner than many analysts imagined.Either way, what is happening in Ukraine is not at all good for China--and it shows how the distinctions we sometimes try to draw between theaters can be a bit artificial.