With Russia On the Defensive, Ukraine Can Pick Time and Place Of Attack

A more accurate description might be that Ukraine can pick the times and places of their assaults as the surprise attacks on Crimea and supply depots have revealed that keeping the Russians off balance and spreading their scarce resources more widely is the key to wearing them down. JL 

Fatma Khaled reports in Newsweek:

"Early Russian goals were beyond their capability. Reducing the goals didn't help. Now, RU's defending against a growing conventional UKR threat & an expanded guerilla war. UKR has transitioned to the offense & can pick where they attack; RU is on the defense." Russian troops have proven "poorly-led, ill-trained & with low morale" and unable to execute combined arms operations of infantry, tanks, offensive and defensive, aviation, and intel. Russia's thinking they could execute a 'Desert Storm-like offensive' completed in a few days was delusional." UA can execute defensive operations, counterattacks & smaller scale CAO's.

Retired U.S. Army General Mark Hertling said Saturday that Russia is currently on "defense" while Ukraine is able to "pick where they attack" as the war between the two continues to rage on.

"Early RU [Russia] goals were beyond their capability. Reducing the goals didn't help. Now, RU's defending in more places against a growing conventional UA [Ukraine] threat & an expanded guerilla war. UKR has transitioned to the offense & can pick where they attack; RU is now on the defense," he wrote on Twitter in a thread.

The retired general added that Russian troops on the ground have proven to be "poorly-led, ill-trained & with low morale" and that they were unable to execute combined arms operations (CAO's) in Ukraine. CAO's is a combination of infantry, tanks, offensive and defensive fire powers, aviation, and intel.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin's army has suffered a large number of casualties during the war, with Colin Kahl, a U.S. Department of Defense official, estimating earlier this month that Moscow has seen up to 80,000 casualties in less than six months.

Meanwhile, the British Ministry of Defense said this week that Russia's failure to "enforce low-level battle discipline" had led to recent "poor performance of Russia's forces," adding that failures by Russian tank crews caused "heavy attrition" in combat."Russia came into this fight thinking they could execute a 'Desert Storm-like offensive' that would be completed in a few days. This was delusional," Hertling tweeted Saturday. "They lacked the leadership, training, equipment, to do it. Given RU culture & systems, they aren't capable of fixing this."

Ukraine currently doesn't have the training or type of organizations or equipment to carry out large scale CAO's, according to Hertling, even though troops are "relatively" well-trained and have high morale as they continue to receive support from their government and citizens.

However, Hertling clarified: "Don't get me wrong, UA *can* execute defensive operations, counterattacks, hasty attacks & smaller scale CAO's. They are not yet capable of large-scale CAO's over large areas. BUT, they are adapting, training w/allies, incorporating new equipment, and doing so very quickly."

The retired general added that Ukraine knows something that Russia doesn't, which is that "you can't *WIN* wars with artillery or air alone. Those may affect the outcome, or even prep the battlefield for future fights, but an force can't regain ground with 'fires' alone. You must do it with maneuver forces...in CAO's."

Last month, Hertling said that the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HMARS) that were provided to Ukraine are a "game changer," adding that Russian forces are now "in dire shape."

The HIMARS were provided as part of a security aid package of $270 million that the White House said would be sent to the Eastern European country, and have been a massive help to Ukrainian forces.