Russia Incapable Of Stopping Ukraine Attacks On Crimea, Mainland

Ukrainian attacks on military sites in Crimea and in Russia show that the Ukrainians are becoming increasingly bold - and that Russia is incapable of stopping the attacks by missile, covert helicopter raids and by special forces. 

The success of this strategy and Russia's failure to prevent attacks is what is driving Putin to threaten the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhia. He has no conventional means of response that will work. While dangerous, the prevailing winds would blow any fallout towards Russian occupied territory and Russia itself. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

The Russian city of Belgorod is 30 kilometers from the Ukraine border and home to a large Russian military base. (It) has been a frequent staging area for Russian forces moving into Ukraine near Kharkiv. It’s also been the (source) of many of the missiles that have raked Kharkiv. An ammunition depot there exploded last night. Belbek is the largest air base in Crimea. After surviving planes were located away from other bases following a series of Ukrainian strikes in the last weeks, Belbek may be the only large air base remaining in Crimea. On Wednesday, after 4 explosions, Russia moved a large number of aircraft out of Crimea to bases inside Russia, showing the effectiveness of this series of attacks.

Explosions in the darkness caught most of the attention on Thursday night. Those included at least four explosions at Belbek air base near Sevastopol, way down at the south end of Crimea. Belbek is the largest air base in Crimea and has been the primary site for Russian flights in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. After surviving planes were located away from other bases following a series of Ukrainian strikes in the last weeks, Belbek may also be the only large air base remaining in Crimea. Russia is claiming that the explosions overnight caused no damage, and that Russian air defenses took out a drone involved in the attack. As of yet, there are no satellite images or other details to dispute that claim. However, on Wednesday Russia reportedly moved a large number of aircraft out of Crimea to bases inside Russia, showing the effectiveness of this series of attacks.

One of the first reports that came in during the evening was of an explosion near Kerch, where the long Crimean Bridge extends southeast from Crimea into Russia. However, this explosion seems to have come from Russian air defenses. It’s unclear whether there was any explosion on the ground, or that Russia actually shot anything down.

There were also reports of an explosion in the Russian city of Stary Oskol, over 150 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. This may have been completely unrelated, though some reports suggest that it represents a missile that went up … then came right back down.

Some much more definite strikes occurred at Nova Kakhovka. There Ukraine seems to have given a fresh dose of pummeling to the bridge running across the top of the dam over the Dnipro River. The route already seemed impassible to vehicles. This may have been Ukraine simply doubling down to see that Russia didn’t get around to any repairs in the near future.

The biggest news from overnight has to be from the Russia city of Belgorod. Located just 30 kilometers from the Ukraine border and home to a large Russian military base, Belgorod has been a frequent staging area for Russian forces moving into Ukraine near Kharkiv. It’s also been the site of many of the missiles and long-range rocket fire that have raked Kharkiv almost daily since the war began.

Before the war, the border station on the E105 between Belgorod and Kharkiv was one of the two largest crossing points between Russia and Ukraine. Russia is currently supplying its forces north of Kharkiv along the same route, and many of the supplies and forces moving out of Russia now flow out of Belgorod to the smaller crossing point at Vovchansk. The critical nature of that crossing point is exactly why Russia has been pressing more forces into the area northeast of Kharkiv.

Back in April, Ukrainian helicopter pilots made a skillful raid into Belgorod, flying at treetop level, to take out a fuel depot. Now another depot has exploded, but it’s not in the Russian city itself. This time it’s farther to the east. It’s also not fuel going up. This time it’s ammunition. And it’s spectacular.

More lengthy videos of the explosion shows that it just goes on and on and on. Just how much ammunition Russia lost in this event isn’t clear, but every one of those shells going up is a shell that can’t be launched at Ukrainian forces in the Donbas or at Ukrainian civilians in Kharkiv.

A previous round of Ukrainian strikes on ammunition storage facilities create a dramatic and measurable drop in Russia’s use of what has been its primary weapon throughout this invasion. However, in the last week Russia has resumed using artillery at levels approaching those during the assault on Severodonetsk.

By some estimates, Russia is lobbing more than 52,000 shells—and 2,400 tons of explosives—in Ukraine every day. That’s more throw weight per day than any army in World War I, and more than the Soviet Army fired in all but the final year of World War II. That’s an incredible level of destruction, and it’s all been directed at just a small area of one nation.

As usual, Ukraine’s first response to Moscow’s angry accusations concerning Belgorod is to issue a cheeky denial. In this case, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense sent Moscow a tweet warning about the dangers of smoking. But however that ammunition depot went up, it represents another large materiel loss to Russia … which is good, because tomorrow we’re going to cover the declining flow of Western weapons and supplies into Ukraine.