And some of the same reasons apply, including suboptimal logistics. In both Donbas and Kherson, Ukraine is using the example of what the allies did to weaken the Nazis in France prior to D-Day by making movement, communication and resupply more difficult. And data on artillery firing reveals the strategy is working. JL
Phillips O'Brien reports on Twitter:
Since the Russian 'pause' ended 5 weeks ago, their advances are barely visible. The most obvious development is the petering out of Russian forward movement in Donbas. Compared to the Eastern Front in WWI (which led to the Russian Revolution) the Russians now fare very poorly. In Kherson/Crimea, Russian fire has failed under Ukrainian logistics attacks. The Ukrainians have methodically targeted Russian depots and transportation, emulating what the British and Americans (did) before D-Day in 1944. Ukraine is degrading Russian (capabilities) 150-200 miles behind the line. The data signal its working. Russian ability to maintain combat operations in Kherson weakening. Since the Russian 'pause' ended 5 weeks ago, their advances are barely visible on the map. Forward movement basically stopped on the front line, though its different in the east and south. The single most obvious development this week is the petering out of Russian forward movement in Donbas. For three days now there has been nothing.
Is this the long-looked for Russian 'culmination' in the Donbas. Maybe, but its hard to say as Russian offensive actions seem so poorly coordinated. They might indeed throw together a new batch of poorly trained scratch units, or Wagner might tempt some more prisoners from...Russian jails, and the offensive will renew. Regardless it seems to be going nowhere. The Russians probably would be wiser to culminate, but wisdom doesnt seem to govern how they operate.
Its important to put the lack of Russian forward movement in perspective. They are putting in a sub-World War I offensive performance. Indeed, compared to movement on the Eastern Front in WWI, the Russians now fare very poorly.Both the Russian and Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary) were able to move the line far more in WWI in the east than the Russians have been able to do with the vast bulk of their military force in the Donbas.
Turning to the South (Kherson/Crimea) the action seems very different. This is the week that Russian ranged fire in the Kherson front seemed to fail under the pressure put on by Ukrainian logistics attacks.The Ukrainians for a few weeks have methodically targeted Russian depots and transportation (bridges and railways). What they are doing is emulating what the British and Americans tried to do before D-Day in 1944--destroy German communications in France.The Allies put a great deal of effort into making it impossible for the Germans to supply their troops in France in 1944. They destroyed basically every major bridge and railway yard they could, in a terrible way. So what the Ukrainians are doing is trying to set up the conditions for a victory in the Kherson region by doing something similar. Make it impossible for the Russians to move supplies and reinforcements in the region.
This is extremely ambitious by Ukraine, and helps put their attacks on depots and rail lines in Crimea in context. They are trying to degrade Russian communications for between 150-200 miles behind the line.The FIRMS data this week is pretty solid sign its working. Russian ability to maintain combat operations in Kherson is weakening. Ukrainians are being completely open on this. They are disrupting Russian forces and logistics, not launching mass attacks.The question is time, of course. It took the Allies months before they believed that they had shut down German communications in France in 1944. Ukraine cant rush and do this. The infrastructure needs to be destroyed, then the effect of the loss of mobility needs to be felt. We are now in that stage.
0 comments:
Post a Comment