What Are Implications of US Revealing Iran Will Provide War Drones To Russia?

The news that Iran is supplying Russia with drones for its war in Ukraine is surprising on several levels. 

First, it indicates that Russian capabilities are even lower than already believed due to losses of trained personnel and weapons in Ukraine, and that replacing them is proving harder than anticipated. Second, since 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend,' Iran sees Russia as an ally in its ongoing hostilities with the US. But, thirdly, the US release of the information just before President Biden leaves for Saudi Arabia, Israel and other Middle East destinations, it is attempting to placate fractious allies by revealing their mutual interests in combating both Russia and Iran, which could increase Israeli weapons sales to Ukraine and convince the Saudis to reduce inflationary oil prices. JL  

Seth Frantzman reports in The Jerusalem Post:

On the eve of US President Joe Biden’s visit to the Middle East,Washington released information that Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with several hundred UAVs, including weapons-capable UAVs, on an expedited timeline and that Tehran may train Russian forces to use the drones. Does Iran need funding from Russia for other programs such missile and nuclear, that it is willing to give drones in exchange for support from Moscow?  (And) is Moscow really running so low on weapons that it needs Iranian drones?

On the eve of US President Joe Biden’s visit, the US has revealed that Russia may be acquiring hundreds of Iranian drones. Jake Sullivan, the national security advisor, made this revelation on July 11. "The Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred UAVs, including weapons-capable UAVs, on an expedited timeline," Sullivan told reporters. 

Washington has information that Tehran may train Russian forces to use the drones. The story seems improbable and unbelievable at first because Moscow is usually thought of as the arms powerhouse that exports them, not a country running around hat in hand to Iran – which is the country that is supposedly under sanctions and yet is now exporting drones. The Islamic Republic has already exported drones to Venezuela and revealed recently that they were also being made at a factory in Tajikistan.  

The drone story has several sides to it. Timing is important. It comes as Biden is coming to the Middle East. Both Israel and Saudi Arabia have been victims of Iran drone threats. The kingdom has received the brunt of attacks by drone technology exported to Yemen by Iran. Tehran has also used drones directly against Saudi Arabia in the 2019 attack on Abqaiq.

 

Iranian drones have also been used against ships in the Gulf of Oman and also to harass US warships. In addition, Iran has used drones in Iraq, where it provides them to proxies. Iranian drones have targeted the autonomous Kurdistan region. Tehran has used drones in Syria to target US forces at Tanaf garrison and also against Israel, flown from Iraq, Syria and from Iran itself. The fact that Iran is a regional drone power is very clear. 

A drone is seen flying in Yerucham. (credit: Chen BarAm/HarTech)

It's not just timing

TIMING IS not the only issue. The US has been talking up the Iran drone threat for a while, including congressional support for countering Iranian drones. Israeli technology is a key to countering the drones. US-backed systems such as Iron Dome and David’s Sling are also key to the air defenses that protect against Iranian drone and missile attacks.

Moreover, the new laser air defenses that Israel is making – and that it will show to Biden during his visit – are an important part of the multi-layered defense against drones. Israel has many other systems to stop drone attacks, such as Barak missiles and also air-launched missiles from warplanes or helicopters. In fact, Jerusalem neutralized Hezbollah drones recently. The terrorist group acquires drone technology from Iran. 

There is also talk of closer cooperation between Israel, the US and Gulf states regarding air defense. Iran has objected to this concept and has recently made threats. But the overall picture is clear: Iran’s drone threat has now caused the US, Israel and states such as Bahrain, the UAE and Saudi Arabia to better understand the overall threat that the belligerent Islamic country poses.  

The reports of Iran selling or providing drones to Russia, however, are a new layer in the drone issue. If Tehran is moving drones to Russia, does that mean it has a surfeit of drones? Does it mean that Iran doesn’t need them as much in the Middle East? Is Iran so overflowing with drones that it can give Russia “hundreds” of them – or does Iran need funding from Russia for other programs, and support for other programs such as the missile and nuclear ones, that it is willing to give drones in exchange for support from Moscow?  

MANY MORE questions are raised. Is Moscow really running so low on weapons that it needs Iranian drones? Will Iran harm its relations with Kyiv by moving forward with this sale? What is America’s reason for revealing this information now? Is the US trying to show how Iran is a key ally of Russia and thus cannot be trusted? Wouldn’t the linkage of Tehran and Moscow illustrate the danger of any kind of new Iran deal?