How An Exploding Russian Ammo Dump Reveals Russia's Ukraine Problems

Not only are Russian supply depots and command posts vulnerable to Ukraine's new NATO-supplied weapons, but the Russian army appears incapable of adapting. 

This is due both to rigid hierarchies, the impact of corruption on supply and transport - and to their suboptimal logistics capabilities which they appear unable to fix. Making them a constant target of opportunity for the innovative, aggressive and competent Ukrainians. JL 

Phillips O'Brien reports in Twitter:

This Russian ammunition dump being blown up last night reveals more than any other attack I've seen the state of the logistics war and the problems the Russians face. We start with its location. The depot was located on the only two major rail lines into the Kherson front for the Russians, vital to the supply of their troops. Its a predictable location for a depot for an army at peace... This reveals the Russian Army has no capacity to adjust. Even though the Ukrainians have been targeting such depots with great success for more than a week the Russians left an easy to locate, major supply depot exactly where someone would expect to find it. Either the Russians are unable to react because of command failure or they cant move the depots because they dont have enough trucks.You might have seen this Russian ammunition dump be blown up last night by the Ukrainians, it reveals more than any other attack Ive seen about the state of the logistics war and the real problems the Russians face. We need to start with its location.

 

Here is a map of the Ukrainian Railway network overall, then a zeroed in map on exactly where the depot was located. Its the black dot on the upper of the two blue lines.The two blue lines, btw, are the only two major rail lines into the Kherson front for the Russians, they are absolutely vital to the supply of their troops, and what this attack is showing is that they are in real trouble. Going down further we see the depot was in the town of Nova Kahovka, right where the railway line has its one crossing of the Dnipro River. Here is an excellent geolocation.

 

Why this is important, is that its as predictable a location for a depot for an army at peace and without any worry of attack as one could choose. Its exactly where anyone would look for a depot, right next to a large rail line in a town near a transport hub. Depots for dummies.

The rail line just on the north bank of the Dnipro looks to be a heavy trunk line (which it should be as its on the Ukrainian govt rail map). Basically its an easy to identify line.

 

So what does this reveal--basically the Russian Army has no ability or capacity to adjust. Even though the Ukrainians have been targeting such depots with great success for more than a week (with it being known that the capability was coming for a month before)...The Russians left a ludicrously easy to locate, major supply depot exactly where someone would expect to find it. Either the Russians are unable to react because of command failure or they cant actually move the depots because they lack the road movement (dont have enough trucks).

 

Either way this attack reveals a great deal of where we are. The Russians had to know such an attack was high priority for the Ukrainians, but either could not or would not adjust. Someone asked about a depot being on the other rail line into Kherson, very strong evidence that there was one and the Ukrainians took it out a few days ago. For them its extremely worrying.