Why Russian Army Failed To Take Severodonetsk By Putin's June 10 Deadline

Most mainstream US news coverage appears to suggest that Ukraine is running out of troops and ammunition around the embattled Donbas city of Severodonetsk, now reduced to rubble in traditional Russian military offensive manner. Putin reportedly demanded the city's surrender by June 10th, indicating he expected that to happen. 

But as of June 11th, Severodonetsk is still a contested battlefield and there is evidence that Ukrainian counterbattery fire is having as deleterious an effect on the Russian artillery as the Russians are reportedly having on Ukraine's forces. All of which is a reminder that both sides are fully engaged in information warfare which may cloud actual results on the ground. JL

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

Whatever June 10 means to Vladimir Putin, it’s time to recalibrate, because on that date, Ukraine shows no sign of going away. On June 6, as Russia pushed back against the counteroffensive, locations in Lysychansk were getting pounded by Russian artillery on the far side of Severodonetsk. But day by day, the numbers of shots falling on the Ukrainian side of the river from guns around Severodonetsk seems to be declining. On Thursday, most of the fire around Severodonetsk was on the north side of the city, the area where Russian forces are positioned. All of this indicates that (in) the artillery battle going on around Severodonetsk, Ukraine is winning.

Exactly why Russia had an apparent deadline of taking control of Severodonetsk of June 10 remains a mystery. It’s been put forward as a test for the current general in charge of the illegal, unprovoked invasion, the “Butcher of Syria” Aleksandr Dvornikov, and that date has been mentioned repeatedly by the head of the Russian-allied Luhansk separatists. But whatever June 10 means to Vladimir Putin, it’s soon going to be time to recalibrate, because on that date, Ukraine shows no sign of going away.

The war has become a WWI-style artillery slugfest, with Russia enjoying a massive advantage in guns and ammo. With its Soviet-caliber ammunition running out, Ukraine and its partners have worked feverishly to transition to NATO standard guns. . 

With 18 new Polish Krabs, Ukraine now has over 150 155mm guns, and 60 more Krabs will be arriving over the coming months, hot off the factory line. Meanwhile, new American M777s were photographed being loaded on transport planes headed to Ukraine, so the total number will soon be over 200. 

We don’t know exactly how much artillery Russia has in Ukraine. I just spent an hour researching various types of Russian units and their artillery components, did some dirty math, and finally deleted the entire paragraph. Reality is, Russia has a lot. And while Ukraine claims it has destroyed 1,393 tanks and 3,429 infantry armored vehicles, the numbers for artillery systems are much smaller—213 MLRS vehicles and 703 artillery guns. Prior to the invasion, Russia claimed it had 6,000 artillery guns in its army, and while we now know those numbers were grossly exaggerated (thanks to grift and incompetence), Russia likely has multiple thousands artillery and MLRS pieces in Ukraine. 

(For their part, Ukraine claimed 1,960 artillery pieces before the invasion, plus 2,000 tanks and 2,870 armored vehicles).

The fighting in Severodonetsk continues to be described as “fierce,” and NASA FIRMS data shows fire all across the area. Except, strangely enough, for those bluffs in Lysychansk that have served as a home for Ukrainian artillery since Ukraine began its counteroffensive on the evening of June 4.

What’s really odd about this map is almost all the fire is on the other side of the river. This is a clear, dry day in Ukraine. It’s the kind of day where FIRMS is really good at picking up the flashes of artillery impacts and even better at reporting any resulting fires. But the bluffs at Lysychansk are apparently going unmolested. 

Back on June 6, as Russia pushed back against the counteroffensive, locations in Lysychansk were getting absolutely pounded by Russian artillery somewhere on the far side of Severodonetsk. But day by day, the numbers of shots falling on the Ukrainian side of the river from guns around Severodonetsk seems to be declining.

Four days of FIRMS data shows declining strikes against Lysychansk and more hits in the Russian “backfield”

On June 8 in particular you can see hits being made in the Russian “backfield,” on the far side of Rubizhne. That continued on Thursday. This likely represents counterbattery fire against Russian positions beyond Severodonetsk. Also on Thursday, most of the fire around Severodonetsk itself is on the north side of the city—the area where Russian forces are reportedly positioned. 

All of this seems to indicate that if there’s an artillery battle going on around Severodonetsk, Ukraine is winning.