The Reason Logistics Hurt Russia As Much As Ukraine In Donbas Artillery Battle

While Ukraine's shortages have gotten more attention in the western press, Russia is also running low on munitions. There has been a marked decline in their use of expensive, sophisticated rockets and evidence that even missiles designed for other purposes are deployed because the Russian army has nothing else. 

Ukraine's persistent request for more NATO armaments is driven in part by need for protection - and in part by the realization that Russia is running low as well and could be forced by attrition to stop. JL 

Peter Suciu and Stavros Atlamazoglou report in 19fortyfive:

The Russian military is still looking for a breakthrough in the Donbas. Although the Russian forces have made gains over the past few weeks, they haven’t been able to push the Ukrainian military out. The fighting in Severodonetsk continues. The Russian military has failed to encircle or capture the strategic city, but it is using long-range fires to put pressure on the Ukrainian fighting units and their logistical lines. Kyiv may be running low on ordnance, (but) Moscow has been forced to scale back aerial strikes. In the early stages, Russia was constantly striking Ukrainian targets with rockets, but in the last two months, that has slowed considerably.Just days after Russia launched its unprovoked and unwarranted invasion of Ukraine; the United States offered to help Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky evacuate the besieged country. His response, “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.”

Fast forward more than 100 days, and Ukraine still needs more ammunition, as well as weapons, to carry on the fight. Yet, Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the president and peace talks negotiator, has said that with the right weapons, Ukraine could turn the tide and even drive out the Russians.

On day 111 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian military is still looking for a breakthrough in the Donbas. Although the Russian forces have made gains over the past few weeks, they haven’t been able to push the Ukrainian military out of the Donbas and give Russian President Vladimir Putin the victory he is so much looking for.

The fighting in Severodonetsk continues. The Russian military has failed to encircle or capture the strategic city, but it is using long-range fires to put pressure on the Ukrainian fighting units and their logistical lines.

“Russian forces conducted offensive operations in Severodonetsk and pushed Ukrainian forces away from the city center on June 13 but did not fully capture the city. Ukrainian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk noted that Russian forces did not entirely clear Severodonetsk of Ukrainian resistance due to Russia’s reluctance to commit its (likely understrength) infantry units and overreliance on artillery and assault aviation for offensive operations. The Ukrainian General Staff added that fighting is still ongoing in Severodonetsk. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces destroyed the last remaining bridge from Severodonetsk to Lysychansk and retain a significant artillery advantage over Ukrainian forces,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest update on the war.

In its daily estimate of the war, the British Ministry of Defense focused on the northeastern part of the battlefield and the Russian industrial defense production capabilities.

Although the Russian military is dedicating the vast majority of its combat power and resources to the Donbas, and specifically in the central section near Severodonetsk, Russian forces in the north of Kharkiv have managed to make some advance for the first time in weeks. Previously, the Ukrainian military had pushed the Russian forces so far back that it had reached the Russian border in some cases.

“Russia’s operational main effort remains the assault against the Sieverodonetsk pocket in the Donbas and its Western Group of forces have likely made small advances in the Kharkiv sector for the first time in several weeks,” the British Military Intelligence assessed.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Tuesday, Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 32,500 Russian troops (and wounded approximately thrice that number), destroyed 213 fighter, attack, and transport jets, 179 attack and transport helicopters, 1,434 tanks, 721 artillery pieces, 3,503 armored personnel carriers, 226 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 13 boats and cutters, 2,473 vehicles and fuel tanks, 96 anti-aircraft batteries, 588 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 53 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 125 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.

Mobilization of the Russian Defense Industry? 

Moreover, to meet the war’s growing demands, the Russian government is considering increasing defense spending to replenish the devastating losses that the Russian forces have suffered on the battlefield.

“On 10 June, the First Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Military Industrial Commission predicted that state defence spending will increase by 600-700 billion roubles (GBP 8.5 -10 billion), which could approach a 20% increase in Russia’s defence budget. Russian government funding is allowing the country’s defence industrial base to be slowly mobilised to meet demands placed on it by the war in Ukraine,” the British Ministry of Defense stated.

Men are easier to replace, especially if they are inexperienced; but advanced weapon systems are not. And Moscow is now scratching the barrel in a lot of cases trying to come up with innovative ways to fill gaps created by battlefield losses.

One such effort has been to send antiquated T-62 main battle tanks to the frontlines. These tanks don’t belong to a 21st-century battlefield and will most likely exacerbate the Russian woes by creating additional casualties as the Ukrainians will be able to take these weapon systems out more easily with their potent anti-tank capabilities, which include the FGM-148 Javelin and Next Generation Light Anti-Tank (NLAW) anti-tank missiles.

“However, the industry could struggle to meet many of these requirements, partially due to the effects of sanctions and lack of expertise. Russia’s production of high-quality optics and advanced electronics likely remain troubled and could undermine its efforts to replace equipment lost in Ukraine,” the British Military Intelligence added.

“Being straightforward – to end the war we need heavy weapons parity: 1,000 howitzers caliber 155 mm; 300 MLRS; 500 tanks; 2,000 armored vehicles; 1,000 drones. Contact Group of Defense Ministers meeting is held in Brussels on June 15. We are waiting for a decision,” Podolyak said in a tweet on Monday morning.

The meeting that Podolyak referred to in his social media post is set to be hosted by U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the NATO Headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Wednesday. Austin had invited ministers of defense and chiefs of defense from around the world to discuss the ongoing conflict, and what efforts could be made to aid Ukraine.

 

Podolyak’s plea for additional arms comes as Russian forces have been far more successful in the recent offensive in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine. While the Russian military has largely been pushed back in the west and failed in its efforts to take Kyiv, the Kremlin has redoubled its efforts in the Donbas, and Russian troops have largely been successful in taking control of central Severodonetsk, a strategically important city in the region.

Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, told the UK’s Guardian newspaper on Friday that Ukraine is losing against Russia on the frontlines.

“This is an artillery war now,” explained Skibitsky. “And we are losing in terms of artillery. Everything now depends on what [the west] gives us. Ukraine has one artillery piece to 10 to 15 Russian artillery pieces. Our western partners have given us about 10% of what they have.”

Even with fewer guns, Ukraine is reportedly using between 5,000 and 6,000 artillery rounds each day, and its military is beginning to run low on the ordnance.

“We have almost used up all of our [artillery] ammunition and are now using 155-calibre Nato standard shells,” Skibitsky added. “Europe is also delivering lower-calibre shells but as Europe runs out, the amount is getting smaller.”

Fewer Russian Rocket Strikes

It isn’t just Kyiv that may be running low on ordnance, as Moscow has been forced to scale back on some aerial strikes. In the early stages of the conflict, Russia was constantly striking Ukrainian targets with rockets, but in the last two months, that has slowed considerably. One factor is that the rockets are expensive to produce, with each costing anywhere between a few hundred thousand dollars to several million.

Russia’s pockets certainly aren’t deep enough for a prolonged rocket campaign, but another factor is that sanctions have limited the Kremlin’s ability to even source key materials, which has further limited the efforts to replenish the stockpiles.

For now, the war has become a ‘slug match’ of artillery – and Ukraine is doing what it can to hold its own.