Why Ukraine Now Has A Strategic Opportunity To Attack

Western aid is flowing, Russia is running out of troops and equipment with little likelihood of replacement and its army is thwarted and on the defensive. 

This creates an opportunity to attack. The question is where and towards what end. Ukraine is not yet strong enough and Russia not yet weak enough to push the attackers out entirely, so the decision about where and when to move next is crucial - and will probably be coming soon. JL 

Mick Ryan reports in War In the Future, image Vadim Ghirda, AP:

A strategic window of opportunity is opening for Ukraine. Western diplomatic support is strong, humanitarian and military aid is flowing, and NATO has pledged long term support. Russia's eastern offensive is turning into a re-run of its disastrous Kyiv campaign. Ukraines success in the battle for Kharkiv provides confidence for the Ukrainian army. As it did in the north, the army has shown it can defend, and then go on the offensive to recapture Ukranian territory from the Russians. The Ukranian army continues to out-think and outfight the Russian Army. Ukraine needs to wait long enough for Russian forces to be weakened during their current offensive (but) can't afford to wait too long: This would give the Russians time to prepare a more cohesive defence in the east. Timing will be vital.

The battle of Kharkiv, the latest counteroffensive undertaken by the Ukrainian army, appears to have been won by Ukraine. With Russian forces withdrawing to the north and east, the Ukrainian military has again demonstrated that they have more fight, and more heart, than their superpower neighbour and adversary.

The Ukrainian success in the battle for Kharkiv is significant. It sees the recapture of Ukrainian territory and will ensure the city is out of Russian field artillery range. These are important humanitarian and political achievements for the Zelenskyy government.

It also provides a shot of confidence and a morale boost for the Ukrainian army. As it did in the north, the army has shown again that it can defend, and then go on the offensive to recapture, Ukranian territory from the Russians. The Ukranian army continues to out-think and outfight the Russian Army.

What is next for the Ukranian military?

Having been victorious in securing Ukraine's largest and second-largest cities, what is next for the country's military?

This is an important question. The war in the east, and the war in Ukraine more generally, is approaching an important turning point. Despite reorientation of effort towards eastern Ukraine, Russia has yet to make significant gains. Indeed, like the north and north-east, Russia is being fought to a near standstill by the Ukrainians.

Ukrainian army vehicles drive past the remains of a Russian tank in north Kharkiv, east Ukraine.(AP: Bernat Armangue)

Because of this, not only are the Russians in trouble in the east. The entire campaign in Ukraine is close to culminating. This is not the same as a Russian defeat, but it does mean that Russia may shortly be unable to continue with its offensive operations.

Because of their battlefield successes, and the rapid flow of Western military aid, the Ukrainians now have several options about what to do next.

Almost all of the options are likely to be some form of counteroffensive to continue re-capturing territory seized by the Russians. There are many important issues that the Ukrainian high command will need to consider before launching such offensives. This includes ensuring there are sufficient forces available, appropriate logistic and air support.

 

Two key considerations

But there are probably two overriding considerations. The first of these is timing.

The Ukrainians timed their counter attacks north of Kyiv, and their offensive around Kharkiv, just right to exploit Russian culminating points. Now, they have to pick the right moment for a potential wider counteroffensive.

It is a brutal calculus.

On one hand, Ukraine needs to wait long enough for enough of the Russian forces to be weakened during their current offensive.

But Ukraine can't afford to wait too long: This would give the Russians time to prepare a more cohesive defence in the east. Timing will be vital.

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The Ukrainians in this war have cleverly demonstrated a preference for attacks against supporting forces rather than suicidal frontal attacks. While the Russian forces in the east are probably stronger than those faced in the north and north-east, any Ukrainian interference with their supply lines will have a significant impact on Russian combat operations on the axis of advance through the Ukranian city of Izyum.

The Russians will now be looking east at the Ukrainian forces before them and looking behind them for any Ukrainian attacks on the important supply routes back to Russia.

Of course, Ukrainian success in any offensive is not guaranteed. Operational outcomes of a subsequent Ukrainian counteroffensive range from a Russian collapse followed by withdrawal; they fight each other to a standstill, followed by stalemate; or, potentially, a Ukrainian defeat. In war there are no certainties.

A second vital consideration for the Ukrainians is "exploitation limits" — how far they might carry their offensives. In particular, might the Ukrainians advance on Belgorod in Russia? This is probably unlikely for several reasons.

First, the Ukrainians have already proved that they can outfight, out-think and defeat the Russian army. They don't need to go into Russia to re-prove that.

Second, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has gained global influence as leader of a country that has been invaded. For him to engage in similar behaviour would have an impact on his influence in the outside world.

Finally, any large-scale Ukrainian operation that crosses into Russia would validate for President Putin the sense of external existential threat that Russia is under. The Ukrainian President, as well as the United States and NATO, would be keen to avoid this potential source of escalation.

A strategic window is emerging

What about exploitation of any counteroffensive within Ukraine's borders? Do the Ukrainians want to recapture only that territory taken by Russia since February 24, or something more?

The Ukrainian President will have to balance reclaiming Ukrainian territory, retaining Western support and not pushing the Russians to use some kind of weapon of mass destruction.

A strategic window of opportunity is opening for Ukraine. Western diplomatic support is strong, humanitarian and military aid is flowing freely, and NATO has pledged long term support. Russia, with its eastern offensive turning into a re-run of its disastrous Kyiv campaign, appears on the verge of culminating in its overall Ukraine adventure.  

Depending on the short-term decisions of the Ukrainian President and his military high command, who have proven to be excellent strategists, we may witness a significant turning point in the war in the coming weeks.