The Reason Ukraine Believes It Can Begin Counter-Offensive In June

The arrival of NATO materiel and training is giving Ukraine sufficient resources to go off the defensive and begin offensive operations against Russia, which is struggling to replace men and weapons lost in the invasion. 

Western analysts see this as plausible given the growing consensus that Russia is incapable of achieving any of its stated war aims and shows no signs of operational improvement in Donbas after its failure at Kyiv. JL

Rintaro Hosokawa reports in Nikkei:

Ukraine will be able to go on the offensive against Russia between late May and mid-June, thanks to weapons supplied by the U.S. and European countries, an adviser to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said. Russian forces "have already been defeated strategically" in light of their failure to occupy Kyiv, and they have achieved none of the invasion's objectives. Ukraine will be able to form units for its offensive as tanks, long-range artillery and other weapons will begin to arrive from the U.S. and Europe in mid-May. One scenario is "liberalization of locations occupied by Russian forces" in a month or two as a result of the Ukrainian troops' efforts. In the second, Russia mobilizes reserves, delaying the launch of Ukraine's counteroffensive. The third sees progress in cease-fire negotiations.

Ukraine will be able to go on the offensive against Russia between late May and mid-June, thanks to weapons supplied by the U.S. and European countries, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said.

The remark by Oleksiy Arestovich in an online interview with Nikkei Asia on Sunday suggests an acceleration in the pace of the war, as experts predict Russia will stage all-out attacks before its May 9 Victory Day, which commemorates the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.

Arestovich is a close aide to Zelenskyy and responsible for security and military affairs in the presidential office.

"Decisive fighting," as Zelenskyy put it, over the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine is expected to begin soon. Ukraine will be able to form units for its offensive as tanks, long-range artillery and other weapons will begin to arrive from the U.S. and Europe in mid-May, Arestovich said.

The Ukrainian military has mostly conducted defensive warfare since the start of Russia's invasion on Feb. 24. If Ukraine goes on the offensive, it will mark a major turning point in the conflict.

Noting that a large number of civilians were killed by Russian troops in Bucha, near the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, Arestovich warned that "the crime of mass killings" will increase if Russian troops extend their stay in the country "even by one day."

Russian forces "have already been defeated strategically" in light of their failure to occupy Kyiv, and they have achieved none of the invasion's objectives, Arestovich said. Using many old Soviet-era weapons, and lacking reserves, the Russian forces are weakening, he claimed.

While Arestovich insists that Ukraine will eventually win the war, experts say the end of the conflict is unpredictable, as all-out Russian attacks in the Donbas region and elsewhere are expected. Russia may mobilize many more troops to add momentum to its stalled offensive to emphasize its gains in the invasion ahead of the May 9 celebration.

Arestovich referred to three scenarios for the war. One is the "liberalization of locations occupied by Russian forces" in a month or two as a result of the Ukrainian troops' efforts to push the invaders back. In the second scenario, Russia promptly mobilizes reserves, delaying the launch of Ukraine's counteroffensive. The third sees progress in cease-fire negotiations following a halt to Russia's attacks on Ukraine.

Although the two countries' negotiators have maintained contact, no negotiations are taking place on a practical level , Arestovich said. There is a wide gap between the two countries over Russia's demand that Ukraine acknowledge its annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, he said.

Zelenskyy has indicated that the negotiations may reach a breaking point as Ukrainian citizens' animosity grows due to the atrocities of Russian troops in the country.

As heavy fighting continues in the southeastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol, evacuation of civilians from the Azovstal steel plant has just started. But with some 1,000 people still trapped there, Ukrainian authorities are negotiating with the Russian side for their safe evacuation. The situation is "so delicate" that the evacuation could be cut short by an indiscreet comment, Arestovich said.

Concerns are growing that Russia's invasion will spill beyond Ukraine's borders. In Moldova, Ukraine's neighbor to the southwest, there have been repeated explosions an eastern region of Transnistria, which is controlled by pro-Russian forces.

While experts say fighting is unlikely to spread beyond Ukraine anytime soon, vigilance is needed, Arestovich said, as "provocative deeds by Russian troops are highly likely."

Even if an armistice is reached, Ukraine will face severe difficulties, such as resettling refugees. While more than 11 million people, including 4.6 million children, have been forced to flee the country, some 2 million people need temporary housing, Arestovich said. The international community's cooperation is indispensable to address this problem, he added.

Japan is "a true friend of the Ukrainian people, as it has been persistently accusing Russia," Arestovich said. He also called for more humanitarian aid from Japan.

In late April, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a veiled threat to use nuclear arms, saying, "All kinds of weapons no one can display now" were available to it.

Arestovich said the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons is low "under the current circumstances," as it would also cause huge damage within the borders of Russia and to its military.