How Sanctions Are Strangling Russia's Military Supply Chain

The biggest problem is electronic components manufactured in Asia and Europe which are critical to increasingly electronic weaponry, from tanks to drones to bombs and missiles but are now unavailable to Russia due to the sanctions. JL 

Howard Altman reports in The War Zone:

Not only is Russia suffering tremendous losses on the battlefield, but its ability to resupply its forces has taken a beating thanks to punishing economic sanctions. “20 Russian military enterprises were forced to suspend their activities in whole or in part due to shortage of parts and components, as well as rising prices due to sanctions.” Those companies include Vimpel, which produces aircraft missiles, and the only Russian company that makes tanks, Uralvagonzavod, the largest such firm in the world.

A senior U.S. defense official confirmed to The War Zone Monday morning something Ukrainian officials have been saying for a while now about Russia's weapons supplies. Not only is Russia suffering tremendous losses on the battlefield, but its ability to resupply its forces has taken a beating thanks to punishing economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies.

Since the start of its war on Ukraine Feb. 24, Russia has lost thousands of major weapons systems, like tanks, armored personnel carriers, air defense systems, helicopters, fixed-wing aircraft, ships and many other weapons that have been destroyed, damaged or captured, according to Oryxspioenkop, an independent open-source investigator.

Ukrainian servicemen walk next to destroyed Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers in Dmytrivka village, west of Kyiv, on April 2, 2022. (Photo by GENYA SAVILOV/AFP via Getty Images)

“There has been an effect on Putin's ability to restock and resupply, particularly in the realm of components to some of his systems and his precision-guided munitions,” the official said in response to a question from The War Zone. “They've already faced an issue in terms of replenishing their inventory because of components to some of those systems. And that's already had a practical effect on Putin.”

 

One example, according to Russian media, is the next-generation airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, the A-100 Premier. Its progress has been stalled due to delays in the delivery of electronic components like microchips, thanks to sanctions imposed on Russia.

You can read more about that here.

The senior U.S. defense official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive issues, would not elaborate further on what systems are affected by sanction-imposed supply chain issues and how badly. However, the sanctions are exacerbating previous Russian supply chain issues, the official said.

A Kalibr cruise missile being launched. Guided munitions like Kalibr are among the Russian weapons production most impacted by foreign sanctions.

“We know that they're working through their replenishment efforts with their own defense contracting process and that they have concerns about how fast and how much they can ramp up their own domestic production of defense articles. And the sanctions are having an effect on their ability to do that.”

Among other things, Ukraine claims tank and air defense system resupply efforts are being affected by sanctions.

A Russian T-90MS tank made by Uralvagonzavod. Uralvagonzavod photograph.

“They have huge problems with military infrastructure," Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of his nation’s Defense Intelligence Agency, or GUR, said on his agency’s Telegram channel recently. In a synopsis of his statements in Ukrainian, the Telegram channel said the problems resulted in the “freezing of the air defense production horde.” The synopsis added that Budanov said many companies have already closed and laid-off workers.

Russia is exhausting its stocks of missiles, according to the April 16 “War Bulletin” produced by the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington, D.C. and shared with The War Zone. “Its military-industrial complex has to work 24/7 to replenish them.”

That issue of the War Bulletin claimed “over 20 Russian military enterprises were forced to suspend their activities in whole or in part due to shortage of parts and components, as well as rising prices due to sanctions.” Those companies include the research and production enterprise Vimpel, which produces aircraft missiles, and the only Russian company that makes tanks, Uralvagonzavod, the largest such firm in the world.

Sanctions have affected Russian tank manufacturer Uralvagonzavod. VASILY MAXIMOV/AFP via Getty Images

John Hardie, a research manager and research analyst for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told The War Zone he is skeptical of claims that sanctions will have a serious, near-term impact on Russia's war efforts.

"Western sanctions have and no doubt will continue to undermine Russia’s defense and related industries, for example by hindering Russian missile production and satellite programs," he said. "But I am skeptical about claims that sanctions affecting Russia’s defense industrial base will meaningfully limit Russia’s ability to prosecute the war, at least in the near term."

 

He cited the example of Russian tanks.

"The Ukrainian General Staff claimed on March 21 that a shortage of foreign-made components forced Russian UralVagonZavod (UVZ), which makes tanks and railway cars, among other things, to suspend operations," said Hardie. "It’s unclear to me whether sanctions have in fact slowed or stopped UVZ production and, if so, whether it’s affected its production of military vehicles or just civilian contracts."

"For one thing, building tanks obviously takes time, so any additional tanks built by UVZ might not make it onto the battlefield, depending on how long the war lasts," he said.

Previous sanctions imposed on Russia after it invaded Ukraine in 2014 have not proven bulletproof.

 

Disclose, for instance, reported that between 2015 and 2020, France “issued 76 export licenses to Russia for military equipment worth a total of 152 million euros.”There have been no new contracts with Russia since 2014, according to Grandjean.

"No deliveries have been made to Russia since the start of the #WarUkraine," he tweeted.

Still, some French components have been found on Russian equipment captured in Ukraine.

The end of these grandfathered deals under the 2022 sanctions would also impact Russia's ability to produce weapons.

 

France isn't the only nation to have its components found in Russian weapons.

A Russian drone shot down in 2017, for instance, was found to contain parts from a half-dozen Western companies, according to the Washington Post, citing a report from the Conflict Armament Research organization.

"The engine came from a German company that supplies model-airplane hobbyists," the newspaper reported on Feb. 11. "Computer chips for navigation and wireless communication were made by U.S. suppliers. A British company provided a motion-sensing chip. Other parts came from Switzerland and South Korea."

The defense sector isn’t the only segment of the Russian economy suffering under the sanctions, ISW said. The sanctions are “continuing to damage Russia’s already-fragile economy,” ISW noted in a recent situation report. Standard & Poor “announced on April 8 that Russia fell into selective debt default after Russia offered its required payment in rubles, not dollars.”

 

Meanwhile, the British Center for Economics and Business Research estimates that Russia will suffer 14% of lost Gross Domestic Product output over a two-year period compared to a scenario in which it did not invade Ukraine.
Though the U.S. and Ukraine say that the current sanctions are affecting Russia’s ability to restock its war materiel, its military is still devastating Ukrainian cities like Mariupol. And Russia, which the Pentagon believes is preparing for a major new attack in the Donbas, has recently poured an additional 11 battalion tactical groups into Ukraine’s east and south, the senior defense official told reporters Monday morning.

MARIUPOL, UKRAINE - A view of partially destroyed building in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol under the control of Russian military and pro-Russian separatists, on April 13, 2022. (Photo by Leon Klein/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

So while the good news for Ukraine is that the sanctions appear to be hitting Putin’s war machine, even Kyiv admits that it won’t have an instantaneous carryover on the battlefield.

“Taking into account Russian stocks of ammo and armor as well as old fashion style of war conducting we could not expect positive sanctions effects on war efforts in the short term,” a defense expert in Ukraine told The War Zone Monday afternoon. “It might happen in mid and long one.”

Putting the Kremlin under fiscal pressure will also make it so recapitalizing the Russian military will be less feasible even after its invasion of Ukraine ends or drastically deescalates.