At the Turn of the Tide. Has Something Decisive Changed In Ukraine?

Arguably, the turning point in the battle against Russian invasion occurred in the first week when outnumbered and under-equipped Ukrainians  nonetheless outfought the invaders. 

But in the past week, as Russia's Donbas offensive has faltered, Ukraine has demonstrated renewed courage, resilience and tactical brilliance. There are growing reports it is on the offensive at numerous places in the country's east and that even desperately beleaguered Mariupol still refuses to surrender. The sense is, that like Gandalf against the orcs of Mordor (imagery the Ukrainians have embraced), the times may still be dark, but there is renewed hope and the ferocious determination that goes with it. JL  

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos, image Anatolii Stepanov, AFP:

If there was a moment when the tide turned for Ukraine, it was surely back in the first 48 hours of the fight, when Ukrainian forces refused to fold. When Volodomyr Zelenskyy refused to run. When Russia demonstrated what was left of the Great Army after decades of kleptocracy and corruption. Even so, May 5 felt like a day when something changed. Ukrainian troops near Izyum had gone on the offensive, (and though) at the end of the day, there aren’t any big Ukrainian gains to talk about, there seems to be a new attitude in the Ukrainian military that holds it’s no longer time to let Russia fritter at Putin’s pace. Instead they’re pressing Russian positions, going on the offensive, and bringing the fight to places that Russia likely felt were safe.

There’s a line in the Lord of the Rings trilogy that appears in both the books and the films, though with slightly different words and at slightly different times. The wizard Gandalf, having been thought lost in the depths by most of his company, returns unexpectedly, appearing before a group of his friends in his new, bright white robes. “Be merry!,” Gandalf says to them. “We meet again, at the turn of the tide. A great storm is coming, but the tide has turned.” The film makes this even shorter: “I come back to you now, at the turn of the tide.”

For Gandalf’s friends, the statement has to be a little puzzling. The human kingdom of Gondor has been under constant attack. Evil seems on the march everywhere. As Gandalf appears, the enormous forces of Mordor under the command of the disembodied necromancer, Sauron, seems ready to deliver a crushing blow. The situation seems utterly dire. Only Gandalf has the foresight to see that this is the low point, the moment when things will start to reverse themselves and what seemed to be Sauron’s inevitable victory becomes a lot more …in evitable. If there was a moment when the tide turned for Ukraine, it was surely back in the first 48 hours of the fight, when Ukrainian forces refused to fold. When Volodomyr Zelenskyy refused to run. When Russian forces demonstrated what was left of the Great Army after decades of kleptocracy and corruption.

Even so, May 5 felt like a day when something changed. From early in the day there was word that Ukrainian troops near Izyum had gone on the offensive, with Ukrainian artillery lighting up Russian positions all along the extensive salient and Ukrainian troops pressing back on Russian forces at multiple points. Then later in the day, Russia seem to be pressing an attempt to recapture towns that Ukraine had recently liberated both in the area near Kherson and around Kharkiv. As the day ends in Ukraine, it seems that Russia failed at every point.

In the area north of Kharkiv, NASA’s FIRMS data made it clear that some heavy exchanges of artillery were underway on Thursday along the road between Kharkiv and Staryi Saltiv. However, when Russia tried to follow shelling with a direct assault, it did not go well. This may have been near the village of Fedorivka, where destruction of Russian forces were reported, though it’s not certain. 

Near Kherson, there were reports that Russians again attempted an airborne landing, moving troops into the area near Vysokopillya by helicopter. Unverified reports state that at least two helicopters were destroyed and the attempt failed, mirroring earlier failures of such tactics at Hostomel and Kharkiv.

There are also reports that four villages were recaptured by Ukrainian forces, but the villages are not named. One Telegram report indicated that Ukrainian forces had entered Tomyna Balka, a village barely 15 miles west of Kherson … but the location seems unlikely based on the last known status of surrounding towns and villages.

Down in Mariupol, three days of Russia attempting to dig the remaining defenders out of the Azovstal factory resulted in the destruction of a huge number of buildings and some hard fighting. As of midday, Russia was once again dangling the promise of a humanitarian corridor if the resistance would just please leave. Then it promptly violated an offered truce. Fighting rages on.

Russian forces surrounded Mariupol and laid siege to the city starting on March 2, a week after the invasion began. By April 12, Russian troops moved into the city in force, even as Ukrainian resistance fought a desperate holding action in the streets, parks, and factories. On April 22, most of the Ukrainian forces remaining in the city—both Azov Regiment and other Ukrainian units—took refuge in the Azovstal complex; 64 days after Russia surrounded Mariupol, they are still there.

That doesn’t mean they’re not suffering from terrible conditions. When a small number of people were allowed to be removed from the hospital there earlier this week following a visit from U.N. representatives, they didn’t allow any wounded soldiers to be taken out. Those remaining in Azovstal report that some of these men are now dying from simple infections, because there are no antibiotics left.

Elsewhere in eastern Ukraine, Russia damaged an older T-64 tank, forcing the crew to pop out and run for it (they seem to have made it) while Ukraine at least damaged, if not eliminated, an artillery battery.

At the end of the day, there aren’t any big Ukrainian gains to talk about, no new Staryi Saltiv or other bold stroke. But there were absolutely a lot of Russian defeats—including in the latest efforts to capture Popasna. 

But there seems to be a new attitude in the Ukrainian military—one that holds it’s no longer time to sit back and let Russia fritter away forces at Putin’s pace. Instead they’re pressing Russian positions, going on the offensive, and bringing the fighting to places that Russia likely felt were safe. That may or may not be a turn of the tide, but it seems like a wave starting to build.