Why Russia's Donbas Offensive Appears To Be Faltering

For all the talk of the Russian Army's history of learning from past mistakes, its performance in the Donbas so far suggests that they do not have the troops or equipment necessary to break through Ukrainian defenses. 

Part of the problem appears to be that they are respondingl to Putin's demands for action by sending in units as they are close to ready rather than waiting to build up mass, which is counterproductive. If the past week's loss rates of Russian forces continue they will never generate enough force to win in Donbas and may even have to give up some or all of their gains throughout Ukraine. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in Twitter, image Rodrigo Abd, AP:

In 8 days (and Ukrainian estimates of Russian losses look pretty accurate) the Ukrainians judged that Russia has lost 111 tanks and 256 AFVs. At full strength, that would be the tank and APC component of 10 BTGs. If the Russians are sending in smaller, more scratch BTGs, the loss could be closer to 15. It would represent at least half, if not more of the Russian reinforcements that have come into Ukraine since the redeployment. If the Russians dont act within a week, and these loss rates continue, the Russian Army might not be much stronger than before the battle of Donbas. The Russians are losing forces at too high a rate to generate the force needed for a breakthroughWar after the opening phase (which we have passed) it not about doctrine or the original plans, its about force regeneration and learning.

 

Thats what Russia is trying to do now, regenerate its damaged forces in Ukraine to build up enough power to take the Donbas and much of the south. For the last week weve been hearing of them sending more and more BTGs to Ukraine for this effort.

 

Now these reinforcing units are probably below strength, possessing of some seriously stressed and worn out soldiers and will suffer from some serious weaknesses, but still, the Russians are sending in more. Estimates were up from 65 BTG to maybe even 90. The problem they have is while they are reinforcing, the first part of the Battle of Donbas is underway and the Russians are losing forces at a clip that seems only a little slower than they are reinforcing.

 

Ukrainian estimates of Russian equipment losses stand at (as of this morning) 873 tanks and 2238 different Armored Personnel Carriers. On 16 April, just before the Battle was seen to have opened, Ukrainian estimates of Russian losses stood at 762 tanks and 1982 APCs.

 

So in 8 days (and Ukrainian estimates of Russian vehicle losses look pretty accurate) the Ukrainians have judged that Russia has lost 111 tanks and 256 AFVs. At full strength, that would be basically the tank and APC component of 10 BTGs. However if the Russians are sending in smaller, more scratch BTGs, the loss could be closer to 15. It would represent at least half, if not more of the Russian reinforcements that have come into Ukraine since the redeployment picked up steam.

 

If the Russians dont act within a week, and these loss rates continue, the Russian Army in Ukraine might not be much stronger than it was before the battle of the Donbas was said to have started.

 

For all the talk of Russian military learning, it seems that the Russians have been unable to build up a large force to attempt a breakthrough of Ukrainian forces in the Donbas, but are instead drip feeding them into action as they did at Kyiv .If the Russians do have 22 BTGs there, the rest of the fronts will be pretty lightly held. if Ukrainian loss estimates for the Russians are anywhere close to accurate, the Russians are losing forces at too high a rate to generate the force needed for a breakthrough in the Donbas, moreover they are not showing enough adjustment either.