Is Russia Even Capable of Going On A Full-War Footing To Subdue Ukraine?

Calling its invasion of Ukraine a 'special military operation' gives Putin the ability to evade the consequences of a full war-time footing, which would cause even greater hardship than those imposed by the current set of sanctions. 

The biggest problem is that Russia's population is aging. Even if they wanted to go to war - as the Ukrainian people have - they are probably not capable of doing so thanks for poor healthcare and demographic reality (there is a reason why wars are largely fought by 18 year olds, not 50 year olds). In addition, the Russian economy is already faltering due to its inability to import components crucial to the manufacture of arms. In short, a special military operation may be all Russia is capable of waging. JL

Josh Marshall reports in Talking Points Memo:

We make fun of the Russians calling the Ukraine war a ‘special military operation.’ But this turns out to have important real world implications. The Russian military is pretty close to tapped out in terms of manpower in its army. There’s just not that much more to draw on. They have more equipment to make up for the hardware they’ve lost in Ukraine. They don’t have a lot more manpower. Putin's conducting this war on the premise that it’s a manageable military option of limited scope. If he puts the country on a war footing, with all that involves in terms of a wartime economy, does Putin believe taking such a step is political viable for him?

As I’ve mentioned to you before, I continue to find Michael Kofman, who works at CNA, the big Navy think tank, the most measured and informative analyst for information on the war in Ukraine. Today he posted a Twitter thread which has as many questions as answers. But there’s a key dynamic I want to highlight. We tend to make fun of the Russian insistence on calling the Ukraine war a ‘special military operation.’ But this turns out to have important real world implications.

As Kofman explains, the Russian military is pretty close to tapped out in terms of manpower in its peacetime army. They’re trying to pressure or entice conscripts at the end of their terms of service to re-up under contracts. They’re trying to bring other soldiers back from foreign deployments. They’re trying to get recent veterans to re-up as contractors. But this is piecemeal, largely a matter of filling current gaps and replenishing losses suffered over the last month. There’s just not that much more to draw on. They have plenty more equipment to make up for all the hardware they’ve lost in Ukraine. They don’t have a lot more manpower.

But that’s as long as it stays a ‘special military option’. If Putin says the country is at war that can potentially change substantially. Part of the difference, in addition to other wartime powers, is that he then has the legal power to extend the terms of conscripts whose terms of service are ending. But the bigger issue is a political one. He’s conducting this war on the premise that it’s a manageable military option of limited scope. If he puts the country on a war footing, with all that involves in terms of a wartime economy, forcing military age men into active service and more the equation and resources at his disposal can change a lot. Remember that Russia’s population is more than three times the size of Ukraine’s.

Recent polling and other reporting suggests at least a major rally round the flag effect in Russia. The war is very popular and Putin is very popular. But how deep is that popularity? Does Putin believe taking such a step is political viable for him?