A generation ago, this was ironically called the Egyptian military strategy, after that army's repeated losses to Israel: declare victory, hold a parade and go home. For the US in Iraq, it was called "Mission Accomplished."
It is not yet clear whether the Russian Ministry of Defense's announcement this morning is the first phase of pretending to be victorious - or a diabolically clever bit of disinformation to lure Ukraine into a trap. But coming only days after reports that the Russian army in Ukraine had a mere three days worth of supplies left, it signals recognition of failure. JL
Josh Marshall reports in Talking Points Memo:
The Russian Ministry of Defense just announced that “first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus” on “liberating” the Donbass region in Ukraine’s east. It’s hard to know precisely what this means. It could mean admitting the military operation in Ukraine has failed and they are now focusing on cleaving off a large chunk of territory in the east. One possibility is that this is the attempt to declare victory and go home, recognizing the reality, without absorbing the sting of military defeat. It’s possible the Russian Army might focus on consolidating territory in the east but hold territory in other areas as bargaining chips for an eventual political settlement.The Russian Ministry of Defense just announced that, in Reuters wording, “first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus” on “liberating” (Russia’s word) the Donbass region in Ukraine’s east. It’s hard to know precisely what this means. It could mean close to nothing and in fact things continue as they have for weeks with no clear change. But it could also mean admitting that most of the military operation in Ukraine has failed or met much more resistance than was anticipated and they are now focusing on cleaving off a large chunk of territory in the east.
There has been a fair amount of evidence for days that Russia was focusing its efforts in the east where it has made the most progress. It also hasn’t been reinforcing forces in the area around Kyiv or in most of the rest of the country where it has become bogged on or actually losing territory to Ukrainian counter-offensives.
One possibility is that this is the attempt to declare victory and go home, moon walk out of Ukraine as it were, recognizing the reality of the situation, without absorbing the sting of military defeat. I think broadly that is what it is. But that doesn’t mean that Russian troops outside of Donbass are leaving any time soon. It’s possible the Russian Army might focus on consolidating territory in the east but hold territory in other areas as bargaining chips for an eventual political settlement.
The other part of the equation is that the mix of military victories and human loss have likely made ceding any additional territory almost impossible for the Ukrainian government. So possibly this ‘ends’ with a militarized standoff with the eastern regions occupied by Russian forces without any agreement.
All that we can be sure of is that this looks like some first step in grappling with the scale of Russia’s military failure in Ukraine. The scale of the failure is too obvious to hide and they are not able or willing to reinforce that failure in most of the country. That is really the minimum to keep up the idea that you’re still trying to succeed or have any hope of doing so.
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