Office Return Delays Driven By Covid Make Employees Less Likely To Return

The longer remote work becomes the norm - and is succeeding, - the less likely it is that employees will want to return or that managers will want to pay for office space which has proven to be redundant. JL 

Alex Christian reports in Wired:

There’s a risk that we could reach a tipping point for people never wanting to go back to the office – even for a twice-a-week hybrid model. The longer the return is prolonged, the weaker the worker’s appetite becomes. In those two years many will have cemented working habits that they prefer, and workarounds to meet and network where needed – making the office seemingly redundant. If there's no reason to go back, why bother? “Both employers and employees have got used to this new way of working.”

For the past 18 months, Sam has fine-tuned their ideal work-life balance. Morning Zoom calls are bookended by home gym workouts and restorative coffee breaks. After a morning deeply focused on projects, they take a 90-minute lunch break to decompress, walk the dog and ready themselves for an afternoon of admin. The laptop is never open beyond 5.30pm.

But Sam is on borrowed time. Since being told they would be back in their London office at some point last year, the date has been continuously pushed back, from spring 2021 to the summer, from the summer to September. But even now, they don’t know when they might be back at their computer, five days a week.

This lack of certainty is a huge source of frustration. “You’re left with major life choices based on what your boss may or may not agree to,” says Sam, who works for a creative agency. “And even if they say you can work from home, they can change their mind on a whim. It affects everything from daily routines to complex decisions like where you want to live. And my job is so easily done remotely – there's no need to be in an office.”

It’s not so much being back in the office that causes dread, as the uncertainty: anticipating the email that finally announces a firm return-to-the-office date. It could arrive in Sam's inbox at any moment. In theory, it may not even arrive until 2022. “Bosses don’t take it seriously,” Sam says. “They just think of their company, not how it impacts your life. I’d rather mine just made their decision and stick to it.

Workers up and down the country have had to face the Great Office Unknowing for 18 months. When the pandemic hit, and its scale was still to be mapped, a widespread return to the workplace seemed reasonable by the summer of 2020. Offices, however, remained largely empty when lockdown lifted, with teams having adapted to remote working. The big return date, therefore, became increasingly vague – a faraway mist lurking over the horizon. 

It stayed that way until this summer and the ending of social restrictions in England on July 19. Bosses, rather than ministers, were suddenly left with the call on when to welcome back employees. Amid vaccinations, surging Covid cases and the Delta variant, those uncertain mists rolled inwards. Rather than take decisive action or change course, the easiest thing was to postpone: a summer return soon became September. And now September is here.

For bosses, kicking the can down the road delays having to make tough decisions. For employees, it creates anxiety, dread and doubt. “Our minds tend to struggle to accept uncertainty,” explains Rachel Allan, a counselling psychologist. “We often seek to escape it by manufacturing scenarios in our minds, and thinking through how these might play out. But if these scenarios contain negative or unwanted features, our emotional response occurs as if they’re real.”

In other words, the hand-wringing and knot of the gut as someone anticipates a return to crowded commutes, eight-hour work days and open-plan layouts, induces a very real sense of dread. It’s only heightened by companies’ stop-start planning. “With any moving target usually comes uncertainty,” says Allan. “When plans change repeatedly, that can increase the sense of threat, and potentially exacerbate stress and pressure.”

Changing plans also affect workers’ personal lives. “Many are continuing to work in their personal space that they’ve spent the past 18 months perfecting,” says Rob Davis, business manager at technology firm Sharp, which has surveyed young office workers across Europe. “People have naturally begun to build routines around their home working environment and to some extent, this has solidified their attitudes.”

For many, a vague date pencilled in for September has been scrubbed out. Bosses are reaching for their 2022 calendars. Apple, Google, Facebook and Amazon have all delayed their US office returns until January – when the flu season reaches its peak. Another postponement may be forthcoming. It could feasibly be until at least spring next year, two years since workers left the office en masse, that they’re expected to head back.

In those two years many will have cemented working habits that they prefer, and workarounds to meet and network where needed – making the office seemingly redundant. If there's no reason to go back, why bother? “As time goes by, Big Tech workers will become increasingly comfortable and focused on extensive working from home,” explains Nicholas Bloom, professor of economics at Stanford University. “But I don’t think that most tech firms will go fully remote – the benefits from two to three days a week in the office are too great.”

Bloom has carried out a monthly survey of 5,000 American workers. As the pandemic has lingered, the desire to work from home has strengthened: employees now want to work an average of 2.5 days a week remotely. That leaves the remaining half of the working week still in the office – a hybrid set-up. “There’s a long literature on how creativity is a spontaneous process that comes from relaxed interactions,” says Bloom. “Zoom meetings are great for getting things done, but they’re transactional and not particularly relaxed. You can work remotely for many months, and probably indefinitely, but I think the cost to creativity and culture will be too much for most firms to bear.”

However, there’s a risk that we could reach a tipping point for people never wanting to go back to the office – even for a twice-a-week hybrid model. The longer the return is prolonged, the weaker the worker’s appetite becomes. “I think there’s a danger of that,” says Alan Bradshaw, a business psychologist who counts bosses and employees among his clients. “Many managers are concerned about returning too, and how it could lead to staff conflict. My impression is that both employers and employees have got used to this new way of working.”

The Great Office Unknowing may not even necessarily just be psychological. It can come down to practicalities and the bottom line: there may not even be a workplace to welcome people back. “Employers may become less willing to pay for the real estate,” Bradshaw says. “Board members mostly talk about overheads and managing financial risk. If they think they can get the job done without office space, there’s a temptation to spend that money elsewhere.”

Very few seemingly want to go back to the office full-time. Bloom says that his survey data skews towards women and minorities who particularly prefer working from home. “Anyone trying to get their employees back five days a week is making a big mistake,” Bloom explains. “That reality is gone. Most firms are offering hybrid and many employees love it. So to hire and retain top talent you have to do the same.” He cites Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan, two high-profile firms which have pushed for a full office return. “They’ll have to reverse course. No other big bank has followed them because doing so could generate a hiring and diversity crisis.”

As it stands, the trend is that workers want a hybrid model. Abigail Marks, professor of the future of work at Newcastle University Business School, leads the Working@Home project. The initiative has submitted research to the government on the impact of home working through the pandemic. “The crude average is people want to work at home three days a week and two in the office, or vice versa,” Marks explains. Her research includes a panel of 80 workers, interviewed every three months. “It started off with novelty and excitement,” Marks says. “Now, many are sick of the same four walls. Even a longer delay won’t change anything: they don’t want to work from home permanently.” 

But there’s no time limit on the office return – and the uncertainty could continue for the long-term. Marks predicts it will take three years for bosses and employees to be on top of the hybrid work model. By 2024, it could conceivably be even harder to wrench people away from productive working from home set-ups. “It depends on the pandemic and whether we lock down again,” Marks says. “We don’t know. How employers react, and how they establish a workable hybrid model, is the big question.”