But it may still take till 2022 for the US to reach 70% vaccinated nationally due to ongoing vaccine resistance in parts of the south and the rural mountain west. JL
APM Research Lab reports:
In the past two weeks, 11 million doses were administered, a 17% increase from the previous update. However, the current daily rate of 786,000 doses administered per day is still a steep drop from the high point of 3 million per day back in April. The U.S. has administered one or more shots to 60% of its population, with all states having vaccinated at least 40% of their residents. The five states with the highest case and hospitalization rates are also the ones with the highest vaccination rates over the past two weeks. 8 states and Washington D.C. are projected to vaccinate 70% of their populations by October, and nearly half of all states will take until 2022 or beyond to reach the target.This update marks the second consecutive rise in vaccine doses administered. In the past two weeks, 11 million doses were administered, a 17% increase from the previous update. However, the current daily rate of 786,000 doses administered per day is still a steep drop from the high point of 3 million per day back in April.As of this update, the U.S. has administered one or more shots of the vaccine to 60% of its population, with all states having initiated vaccination for at least 40% of their residents. However, the percent of population vaccinated varies widely by region and is nowhere near uniform.
Six states have administered at least one shot to 70% of their populations: Vermont, Massachusetts, Hawaii, Connecticut, Maine and Rhode Island. Besides these top runners, states in the Northeast and on the West Coast have also been doing exceptionally well, surpassing the 60% mark.
In stark contrast at the bottom of the list are Idaho, Wyoming, Mississippi, West Virginia and North Dakota, each initiating vaccination for less than half of their populations. Alabama and Louisiana are also at the tail end of inoculation progress, though this is the first week in months that they have risen out of the bottom five spots—a result of increasing vaccinations as the states struggle with their most serious outbreaks yet.
As the delta variant spreads across the U.S., several states with low vaccination coverage are now feeling the consequences of their slow progress. Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi have some of the highest COVID-19 case and hospitalization rates in the nation.
In Alabama, hospitals have reached a negative capacity of available ICU beds and set a new state record for the number of children hospitalized with the virus. Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases have also overwhelmed Florida’s Gulf Coast, leaving the region with no ICU beds. In Mississippi, the state with the highest case rate in the nation, the top health official threatened jail time for COVID-positive people who don't isolate in their homes.
Read more: Why does the “Ten Across” region include some of the best and worst vaccination rates?
The good news is, the five states with the highest case and hospitalization rates are also the ones with the highest vaccination rates over the past two weeks. After months of slow, if not stagnating, progress, these states are finally making headway again. Louisiana leads the rankings by initiating vaccination for an additional 3.4% of its population over the past 14 days—well above the nationwide rate of 2%. Mississippi, Florida, Arkansas and Alabama have also seen a significant jump in vaccine demand.
But not all states with low vaccination coverage have witnessed a significant spike in inoculations. West Virginia, North Dakota, Indiana, Idaho and Wyoming have some of the lowest vaccination coverages, yet their rates over the past two weeks are below that of the nation as a whole. This may be because these five states have not yet experienced the same level of surge in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations as experienced in states like Louisiana and Mississippi. However, this does not mean that they are in the clear—in fact, daily cases in Indiana, Idaho, West Virginia and Wyoming have been consistently on the rise for at least the past month now.
How long would it take states to reach “herd immunity”?
In order to track states’ progress in eliminating the virus, the APM Research Lab has developed two projection scenarios. The first shows how long states would take to reach 70% vaccinated based on their average vaccination rate since mid-December (the beginning of the inoculation campaign). The second scenario looks at how long it would take states to reach the 70% target based on their average rate over the past 14 days.
Based on the first scenario, all states would reach the 70% target by February next year. Besides the six states that have already initiated vaccination for 70% of their populations, 15 states and Washington D.C. are on track to reach the target by October. (All 15 states but Florida were won by Biden in the 2020 election. Our blog post further discusses how vaccination rates are strongly correlated with political leaning.)
The second scenario—which uses only vaccination rates from the past two weeks—presents a less optimistic picture of how states are doing. Under this scenario, only eight states and Washington D.C. are projected to vaccinate 70% of their populations by October, and nearly half of all states will take until 2022 or beyond to reach the target. However, because of the recent rise in inoculation rates across the country, the projection under this scenario has lightened up significantly compared to one month ago when the 31 states wouldn’t reach the 70% mark until 2022 or beyond.
As insufficient vaccination continues to leave room for variants to develop, the U.S. has reached a point where it may never be able to achieve the ideal scenario of herd immunity. The past few weeks have shown that, even as life in the U.S. begins to feel more “normal,” the return to pre-pandemic life is not a foregone conclusion. New virus variants, barriers to the equitable access of vaccines, and remaining vaccine hesitancy rooted in historical distrust, political differences and misinformation all have the potential to delay inoculation progress and threaten the nation’s health and safety.
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