The question is whether economic fears, political expediency and impatience driving demands to reopen will now cancel out the initial benefits from disciplined healthcare measures like mask wearing and quarantines. JL
Tommy Beer reports in Forbes:
A pair of studies found that shutdown orders helped prevent 60 million Covid-19 infections in the United States and prevented 3.1 million deaths across Europe. Recent statistics released in America indicate that as a majority of states have begun lifting restrictions implemented to slow the spread of the coronavirus, nearly half of the nation's states are diagnosing new Covid-19 cases in increasing quantities. 21 states have seen an uptick in newly reported cases over the past 14 days
KEY FACTSEmergency health measures implemented in six major countries have "significantly and substantially slowed" the spread of the novel coronavirus, according to research from a UC Berkeley team published today in Nature.The study utilized an "econometric" model to estimate how 1,717 interventions, such as stay-at-home orders, business closings and travel bans, impacted the spread of the virus in six countries (China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the United States.)The estimates suggest that, without certain policies in place from the beginning of the pandemic in January through early April, there would be about 60 million more coronavirus infections in the U.S. and an additional 500 million total infections across all six countries.On Monday, the total number of global Covid-19 cases surpassed 7 million, with over 400,000 dead (more than a quarter of those deaths have occurred in America).A separate study, from epidemiologists at Imperial College London, also published Monday in Nature, estimated shutdown measures, such as lockdown orders and school closures, saved about 3.1 million lives in 11 European countries, including 500,000 in the United Kingdom.Per CNN, "the study had some limitations, including that available data on infections and measures across the countries were limited, and the study can only suggest estimations about what could have happened."BIG NUMBER:
110,771: That's the number of Americans that have died due to the coronavirus as of Monday afternoon, according to Johns Hopkins University's data.KEY BACKGROUND:
Per the UC Berkeley study, "the findings come as leaders worldwide struggle to balance the enormous and highly visible economic costs of emergency health measures against their public health benefits, which are difficult to see." Recent statistics released by health officials in America indicate that as a majority of states have begun lifting restrictions that were implemented to slow the spread of the coronavirus, nearly half of the nation's states are diagnosing new Covid-19 cases in increasing quantities. 21 states have seen an uptick in newly reported cases over the past 14 days, according to data from The New York Times.CRITICAL QUOTE:
"The last several months have been extraordinarily difficult, but through our individual sacrifices, people everywhere have each contributed to one of humanity's greatest collective achievements," said lead author Solomon Hsiang, director of Berkeley's Global Policy Laboratory. "So many have suffered tragic losses already. And yet, April and May would have been even more devastating if we had done nothing, with a toll we probably can't imagine."FURTHER READING:
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