A Blog by Jonathan Low

  

Jan 15, 2016

The Good News on Global Warming: We've Delayed the Next Ice Age

We've pushed the next ice age back 100,000 years?

Alrighty then, guess its time to short sell winter clothing manufacturers. JL

Monica Sarkar reports in CNN:

Even moderate human interference with the planet's natural carbon balance, through activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, might delay the next glacial cycle by 100,000 years.
Could this be good news about global warming? Latest research suggests that human intervention has postponed the beginning of the next ice age.
The researchers suggest that even moderate human interference with the planet's natural carbon balance, through activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, might delay the next glacial cycle by 100,000 years.
Scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany have found that the Earth's last eight ice ages can be explained by a relation between insolation -- solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface -- and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. This also helps to predict future glacial cycles.
"Although it has no practical importance whether the next ice age will begin in 50,000 or 100,000 years from now, the fact that we can alter such a remote future clearly shows that humans already have a power to affect the future on geological time scales."
In the current climate, Earth will also be looking rather different. "Like no other force on the planet, ice ages have shaped the global environment and thereby determined the development of human civilization," co-author and PIK-Director Hans Joachim Schellnhuber says in a statement.
"For instance, we owe our fertile soil to the last ice age that also carved out today's landscapes, leaving glaciers and rivers behind, forming fjords, moraines [soil and rock deposits] and lakes. However, today it is humankind with its emissions from burning fossil fuels that determines the future development of the planet."
Scientists say climate change is slowing Earth's rotation

Wait, what exactly is an ice age?

Warm and cold periods that lead to ice ages occur in regular patterns called Milankovitch cycles. These cycles occur because the Earth's orbit around the sun is not constant. All of these changes result in varying amounts of energy (i.e. heat) that the planet receives from the sun, determining how warm or cold the planet becomes.
When greenhouse gases are high, the Earth is warm, when they are low, the Earth is cool. When these changes are occurring naturally, they take thousands to tens of thousands of years to occur, whereas humans have caused this to occur in just over 100 years.
December: It was warm at the North Pole

So, the delaying of an ice age is actually a bad sign?

Yes. Global warming has reached a critical stage. If temperatures climb 2 degrees Celsius, low-lying islands would be wiped out as seas continue to rise, pushing many plants and animals toward extinction, increasing the intensity of droughts, floods, heat waves and storms. And in a historical moment, ministers from 195 countries at COP21, the climate change conference in Paris in December 2015, pledged to act to keep temperatures low.
John D. Sutter, columnist for CNN and creator of CNN's 2 degree project, warns against becoming complacent about global warming. "This research sheds interesting light on how humans have influenced and continue to influence the climate. It's a complicated relationship and our knowledge is always evolving.
)Could this be good news about global warming? Latest research suggests that human intervention has postponed the beginning of the next ice age.
The researchers suggest that even moderate human interference with the planet's natural carbon balance, through activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, might delay the next glacial cycle by 100,000 years.
Scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany have found that the Earth's last eight ice ages can be explained by a relation between insolation -- solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface -- and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. This also helps to predict future glacial cycles.
"Although it has no practical importance whether the next ice age will begin in 50,000 or 100,000 years from now, the fact that we can alter such a remote future clearly shows that humans already have a power to affect the future on geological time scales."
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In the current climate, Earth will also be looking rather different. "Like no other force on the planet, ice ages have shaped the global environment and thereby determined the development of human civilization," co-author and PIK-Director Hans Joachim Schellnhuber says in a statement.
"For instance, we owe our fertile soil to the last ice age that also carved out today's landscapes, leaving glaciers and rivers behind, forming fjords, moraines [soil and rock deposits] and lakes. However, today it is humankind with its emissions from burning fossil fuels that determines the future development of the planet."
Scientists say climate change is slowing Earth's rotation

Wait, what exactly is an ice age?

Warm and cold periods that lead to ice ages occur in regular patterns called Milankovitch cycles. These cycles occur because the Earth's orbit around the sun is not constant. All of these changes result in varying amounts of energy (i.e. heat) that the planet receives from the sun, determining how warm or cold the planet becomes.
When greenhouse gases are high, the Earth is warm, when they are low, the Earth is cool. When these changes are occurring naturally, they take thousands to tens of thousands of years to occur, whereas humans have caused this to occur in just over 100 years.
December: It was warm at the North Pole
Electricity and heat: 30.6% – Burning fossil fuels for electricity and heat is, by far, the main driver of climate change. Emissions from those sectors account for nearly a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the World Resources Institute. These activities are the biggest climate villains, statistically speaking.
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Transportation -- driving, flying and the like -- makes up nearly 15% of global climate-change pollution, according to 2012 data synthesized by WRI. It's the second-most important cause of dangerous global warming.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Transportation: 14.8% – Transportation -- driving, flying and the like -- makes up nearly 15% of global climate-change pollution, according to 2012 data synthesized by WRI. It's the second-most important cause of dangerous global warming.
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Manufacturing and construction are less often discussed than transit, but they contribute nearly as much to climate change: 13.3% of emissions, WRI says. These activities are the third-biggest contributors of heat-trapping emissions.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Manufacturing and construction: 13.3% – Manufacturing and construction are less often discussed than transit, but they contribute nearly as much to climate change: 13.3% of emissions, WRI says. These activities are the third-biggest contributors of heat-trapping emissions.
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Likewise, our food systems are villains in the fight against climate change. Advocates say giving up meat, especially beef, would help curb greenhouse gases. Agriculture makes up 11.1% of global emissions, according to WRI.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Agriculture: 11.1% – Likewise, our food systems are villains in the fight against climate change. Advocates say giving up meat, especially beef, would help curb greenhouse gases. Agriculture makes up 11.1% of global emissions, according to WRI.
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Burning other types of fuel, including wood, accounts for 8.2% of emissions. Also included in this category are fuels burned in commercial and residential buildings, as well as burning fuel for agriculture and deep-sea fishing.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Other fuel combustion: 8.2% – Burning other types of fuel, including wood, accounts for 8.2% of emissions. Also included in this category are fuels burned in commercial and residential buildings, as well as burning fuel for agriculture and deep-sea fishing.
Hide Caption
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Industry adds 5.8% of global carbon and greenhouse gas emissions, according to WRI. Cement and aluminum production, shown here, are among the major contributors.
Burning fossil fuels for electricity and heat is, by far, the main driver of climate change. Emissions from those sectors account for nearly a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the <a href="http://www.wri.org/" target="_blank">World Resources Institute</a>. These activities are the biggest climate villains, statistically speaking.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Electricity and heat: 30.6% – Burning fossil fuels for electricity and heat is, by far, the main driver of climate change. Emissions from those sectors account for nearly a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the World Resources Institute. These activities are the biggest climate villains, statistically speaking.
Hide Caption
1 of 10
Transportation -- driving, flying and the like -- makes up nearly 15% of global climate-change pollution, according to 2012 data synthesized by WRI. It's the second-most important cause of dangerous global warming.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Transportation: 14.8% – Transportation -- driving, flying and the like -- makes up nearly 15% of global climate-change pollution, according to 2012 data synthesized by WRI. It's the second-most important cause of dangerous global warming.
Hide Caption
2 of 10
Manufacturing and construction are less often discussed than transit, but they contribute nearly as much to climate change: 13.3% of emissions, WRI says. These activities are the third-biggest contributors of heat-trapping emissions.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Manufacturing and construction: 13.3% – Manufacturing and construction are less often discussed than transit, but they contribute nearly as much to climate change: 13.3% of emissions, WRI says. These activities are the third-biggest contributors of heat-trapping emissions.
Hide Caption
3 of 10
Likewise, our food systems are villains in the fight against climate change. Advocates say giving up meat, especially beef, would help curb greenhouse gases. Agriculture makes up 11.1% of global emissions, according to WRI.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Agriculture: 11.1% – Likewise, our food systems are villains in the fight against climate change. Advocates say giving up meat, especially beef, would help curb greenhouse gases. Agriculture makes up 11.1% of global emissions, according to WRI.
Hide Caption
4 of 10
Burning other types of fuel, including wood, accounts for 8.2% of emissions. Also included in this category are fuels burned in commercial and residential buildings, as well as burning fuel for agriculture and deep-sea fishing.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Other fuel combustion: 8.2% – Burning other types of fuel, including wood, accounts for 8.2% of emissions. Also included in this category are fuels burned in commercial and residential buildings, as well as burning fuel for agriculture and deep-sea fishing.
Hide Caption
5 of 10
Industry adds 5.8% of global carbon and greenhouse gas emissions, according to WRI. Cement and aluminum production, shown here, are among the major contributors.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Industrial processes: 5.8% – Industry adds 5.8% of global carbon and greenhouse gas emissions, according to WRI. Cement and aluminum production, shown here, are among the major contributors.
Hide Caption
6 of 10
Forests trap carbon, so chopping down rainforests contributes considerably to the climate change problem. Estimates vary, but WRI says deforestation accounts for 5.7% of emissions linked to climate change. Other estimates put the number closer to 20%.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Deforestation and land use changes: 5.7% – Forests trap carbon, so chopping down rainforests contributes considerably to the climate change problem. Estimates vary, but WRI says deforestation accounts for 5.7% of emissions linked to climate change. Other estimates put the number closer to 20%.
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Gas flares, and other emissions associated with energy production, create 5.3% of greenhouse gas emissions.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Fugitive emissions: 5.3% – Gas flares, and other emissions associated with energy production, create 5.3% of greenhouse gas emissions.
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Landfills produce methane, which is a potent greenhouse gas. Our waste systems create 3.1% of global warming pollution, according to WRI.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Waste: 3.1% – Landfills produce methane, which is a potent greenhouse gas. Our waste systems create 3.1% of global warming pollution, according to WRI.
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Some emissions can't be tied to a particular country. These "bunker fuels," in industry-speak, include ships in international waters as well as international flights, according to the World Resources Institute. They account for 2.2% of climate change emissions.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Bunker fuels: 2.2% – Some emissions can't be tied to a particular country. These "bunker fuels," in industry-speak, include ships in international waters as well as international flights, according to the World Resources Institute. They account for 2.2% of climate change emissions.
Hide Caption
10 of 10
Burning fossil fuels for electricity and heat is, by far, the main driver of climate change. Emissions from those sectors account for nearly a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the <a href="http://www.wri.org/" target="_blank">World Resources Institute</a>. These activities are the biggest climate villains, statistically speaking.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Electricity and heat: 30.6% – Burning fossil fuels for electricity and heat is, by far, the main driver of climate change. Emissions from those sectors account for nearly a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the World Resources Institute. These activities are the biggest climate villains, statistically speaking.
Hide Caption
1 of 10
Transportation -- driving, flying and the like -- makes up nearly 15% of global climate-change pollution, according to 2012 data synthesized by WRI. It's the second-most important cause of dangerous global warming.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Transportation: 14.8% – Transportation -- driving, flying and the like -- makes up nearly 15% of global climate-change pollution, according to 2012 data synthesized by WRI. It's the second-most important cause of dangerous global warming.
Hide Caption
2 of 10
Manufacturing and construction are less often discussed than transit, but they contribute nearly as much to climate change: 13.3% of emissions, WRI says. These activities are the third-biggest contributors of heat-trapping emissions.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Manufacturing and construction: 13.3% – Manufacturing and construction are less often discussed than transit, but they contribute nearly as much to climate change: 13.3% of emissions, WRI says. These activities are the third-biggest contributors of heat-trapping emissions.
Hide Caption
3 of 10
Likewise, our food systems are villains in the fight against climate change. Advocates say giving up meat, especially beef, would help curb greenhouse gases. Agriculture makes up 11.1% of global emissions, according to WRI.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Agriculture: 11.1% – Likewise, our food systems are villains in the fight against climate change. Advocates say giving up meat, especially beef, would help curb greenhouse gases. Agriculture makes up 11.1% of global emissions, according to WRI.
Hide Caption
4 of 10
Burning other types of fuel, including wood, accounts for 8.2% of emissions. Also included in this category are fuels burned in commercial and residential buildings, as well as burning fuel for agriculture and deep-sea fishing.
10 photos: What's causing climate change? Meet the top 10 villains
Other fuel combustion: 8.2% – Burning other types of fuel, including wood, accounts for 8.2% of emissions. Also included in this category are fuels burned in commercial and residential buildings, as well as burning fuel for agriculture and deep-sea fishing.
Hide Caption
5 of 10
02 climate change electricity RESTRICTED
transporation climate change
climate change manufacturing construction
cow feedlot RESTRICTED
firewood energy
aluminum plant RESTRICTED
deforestation RESTRICTED
gas flare
02 landfill waste
cargo ships
"But it should be said clearly that global warming is not a positive trend. This is not an excuse to pollute. As we pump carbon into the atmosphere at an alarming rate we are seriously jeopardizing the viability of the planet and putting ourselves in very real danger."
Adds Ganopolski: "Right now the problem is global warming, not cooling, and the only right things we can do is to reduce CO2 emission."
He also suggests humans are more powerful than they realize. "The bottom line is that we are basically skipping a whole glacial cycle, which is unprecedented.
"It is mind-boggling that humankind is able to interfere with a mechanism that shaped the world as we know it."
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