Apple Makes As Much From Its Non-iPhone Lines As Microsoft Makes in Total. So Why Does the Market Say It's Doomed?

An interesting and passionate debate is developing between the Apple true believers and Wall Street (aka the global capital markets).

The Street is looking, as it is wont to do, at global trends like developed country incomes, market saturation and the net present value of future cash flows. The result is that Apple's stock is down @ 25%. And let's face it, some of those finance geeks are calculating breakup values, because that's what they do. This ain't personal, it's business.

The Fanboys and Fangirls are deeply offended. Outraged, even. Does no one else see the amazing progress in China (just ignore the government confusion and financial meltdown, those are problems caused by mere people)? Can no one doubt that the next Big Thing is just around the corner and likely to lead humanity to a golden future?

These warring cults and their mindsets offset. And they probably deserve each other. Who's right?  Well, there is an element of 'whatever goes up must come down' to the Apple story. Nothing and nobody stays on top forever. But just as all those claiming Microsoft was, is and will be doomed have been consistently proven wrong, so is it probably just a tad premature to claim Apple's time has come. JL

The Macalope comments in MacWorld:

The iPhone made Apple 63 percent of its revenue in the last quarter. 100 minus 63 is 37. Apple made $51.5 billion in revenue in their most recently reported quarter. If you multiply $51.5 times 0.37 you get $19 billion which is apparently their “little else”. You know how much revenue Microsoft made in total during its most recently reported quarter? $20.4 billion.
Ask not for whom the doom bells toll. Seriously, why would you even do that? It’s obviously Apple.
Writing for MarketWatch, Jeff Reeves says “The iPhone slowdown spells doom for Apple.” (Tip o’ the antlers to Jim Neal.)
Nailed. It.

Trip Chowdhry of Global Equities Research has called for the “completely clueless” Tim Cook, above, to be replaced.

And the Macalope has called for the sharp scissors to be taken away from Trip Chowdhry before he hurts himself. Although he’s pretty sure Chowdhry could hurt himself on pudding.

…Apple’s stock fell hard in the second half of 2015, and is now down about 25% from its July high.

True! Hey, the overall market wouldn’t also be down considerably since July, would it? Who knows? Apparently it’s an unknowable item because it does not appear in this piece. When writing about Apple, it’s important to remove any extraneous contextual information so as to pretend there are no outside factors. That’s just how science works. Any astrologer will tell you that.

For starters, it’s important to acknowledge that Apple has little else driving it other than the iPhone.

Hey, kids! Let’s do some math! Oh, shut up, it’ll be fun.
The iPhone made Apple 63 percent of its revenue in the last reported quarter. 100 minus 63 is 37. It’s true! Look it up. Apple made $51.5 billion in revenue in their most recently reported quarter. If you multiply $51.5 times 0.37 you get $19 billion which is apparently their “little else”. You know how much revenue Microsoft made in total during its most recently reported quarter? $20.4 billion.
Again, sorry, needless perspective and context. The Macalope apologizes profusely. Let’s continue with the caterwauling, brought to you by MarketWatch’s sponsor, Rumors of iPhone Production Cuts.

Rumors of iPhone Production Cuts: Don’t bother asking for them by name because no one will put their name to these rumors. But you should totally believe them and sell all your Apple stock because Trip Chowdhry had a burrito-induced fever dream.
The “reports” (LOL) that Reeves cites say Apple is cutting iPhone 6s production by 30 percent. You may think “Well, the iPhone 6s is just one of the phones Apple makes and Apple always cuts production headed into the quarter after a big launch. For example, iPhone sales last year dropped 18 percent from the company’s first fiscal quarter to the second. This is just natural.”
This is why you are not a writer for MarketWatch, Gladys. We’ve reviewed your samples and, well, while your prose is florid and reactionary, it’s not MarketWatch-level reactionary. We wish you the best of luck in your future endeavors. Which will not include writing for MarketWatch.

And I suppose if you’re really reaching for excuses, Apple doesn’t break out devices by model in its SEC filings, and there could theoretically be weak demand for the 6s but robust demand for its older models.
But given the mammoth importance of the iPhone, it’s pretty much categorically bad to see rumors of a huge cut in iPhone production.

If you’re trying to make sense of this in any way, then you’re “reaching for excuses”. Please, do not raise your hand until all of the tables have been flipped.

Is Tim Cook “clueless,” as some claim?

Hmm! [Leans forward in easy chair, pulls pipe from mouth, strokes chin thoughtfully, does this until he dies of starvation.]
MarketWatch: Asking the hard questions. Sorry, did we say “hard”? We meant “dumb”. That… that was an editing error.
Now, follow the bouncing logic:

Fears of a China slowdown have been weighing on the market for some time.
…
That does not bode well for Apple, which is increasingly reliant on China.

Apple is doing better and better in China every quarter. Apple’s dependency on China now dooms it.
Never get good at anything, kids, because then you will just become dependent upon it and it will doom you.

Consider that the Greater China segment of Apple saw 84% sales growth in fiscal 2015.

So doomed. OMG. Like, Victor von Doomed.
It’s not many companies that can get beat over the head with sales growth. Guess Apple’s just lucky that way.