A Blog by Jonathan Low

  

Dec 13, 2015

Millennials Take Over the Electorate

First, the workplace. Now, the electorate. The lingering question is what, if any, changes in policy and economics this will portend. JL

Zara Kessler comments in Bloomberg:

Despite the larger size of the millennial generation relative to the baby boomers, their transition through life has not introduced (and, moving forward, is not as likely to introduce) the same level of shock to societal institutions as the baby boomers. This is because the baby boom was marked by large increases in birth cohorts relative to those that had come before. This is not the case for the millennials.

It finally happened: This year, millennials surpassed baby boomers as the largest share of the U.S.'s voting-age population.

The U.S. now has 88 million millennials, people born 1981 to 2000. They are more than the sum of their student loans. This generation has tremendous political clout: Three of 10 voting-age Americans are millennials, and more members of the generation reach voting age each day.

A by-the-numbers look shows a generation poised to take over. Politicians ignore millennials at their peril.

Millennials are the biggest generation — and they’re surprisingly diverse.

Millennials are the biggest generation — and they’re surprisingly diverse.

  • The millennial generation is already the largest in the U.S. No new millennials are being born — but the generation continues to grow because of immigration.
    Size of Each U.S. Generation
    196019802000202020402060020m40m60m80m100m120m people
    When millennials are the largest generation, peaking in 2038
    BoomerGen XMillennialGen ZGen Post-Z
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bloomberg reporting
  • About 15 percent of young adults are foreign born.
    Foreign Born
    1980199020002009-20130510152025%
    18- to 34-year-olds
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau ("Foreign Born, Age 18 to 34")
  • One in 4 young adults speaks a language other than English at home.
    Foreign Language at Home
    1980199020002009-20130510152025%
    18- to 34-year-olds
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau ("Language Other than English Spoken at Home, Age 18 to 34")

They aren’t easy to pin down.

They aren’t easy to pin down.

They’re getting a later start.

They’re getting a later start.

They’ll be saddled with a heavy load.

They’ll be saddled with a heavy load.

Obamacare’s future is in young people’s hands.

Obamacare’s future is in young people’s hands.

  • Millennials have generally been more approving than older Americans of Obamacare.
    Approve of Affordable Care Act
    March 2012Oct. 2013Nov. 20143035404550556065%
    MillennialGen XBoomerSilent
    Source: Pew Research Center (data provided to Bloomberg View)
  • They are more likely to think it’s "the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have health care."
    Is Government Responsible for Coverage for All?
    Millennial
    53.7
    44.4
    Gen X
    45.8
    50.3
    Boomer
    42.4
    55
    Silent
    44.9
    51.6
    YesNo
    Source: Pew Research Center (data provided to Bloomberg View)
  • White millennials are less likely to support an expansive government role than nonwhites, who decisively do — a reminder that changing demographics are increasingly important in deciding policies and elections.
    Government Is Responsible for Coverage (By Race)
    Millennial
    68.1
    43.3
    Gen X
    64
    35.6
    Boomer
    61.7
    35.6
    NonwhiteWhite
    Source: Pew Research Center (data provided to Bloomberg View)
  • No matter their opinion of the law, millennials are benefiting from it.
    Uninsurance Rate
    20102011201220132014Jan.-June 2015010203040%
    Sept. 2010: Obamacare allows
    children to be on their parents'
    plan until age 26.
    19-25All ages
    Source: National Center for Health Statistics (Table I, uninsured at time of interview)

Millennials question the U.S.'s role in the world.

Millennials question the U.S.'s role in the world.

  • Young adults have been more likely than older Americans to think that the U.S. should "stay out of world affairs." Unlike their elders, they haven't celebrated a victory like World War II or the Cold War; the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are their reference points.
    Say U.S. Should 'Stay Out'
    1990201010203040506070%
    18-2930-4445-5960+
    Source: The Chicago Council on Global Affairs (data provided to Bloomberg View)
  • Despite tense relations between the U.S. and China, younger Americans are less likely than older ones to fear China.
    See China's Rise as a Critical Threat
    199020103040506070%
    18-2930-4445-5960+
    Source: The Chicago Council on Global Affairs (data provided to Bloomberg View)
  • Few young adults see Islamic State or terrorism as "the most important issue facing the country."
    Most Significant Issue in U.S.
    Unemployment & jobs
    22
    24
    14
    Declining incomes
    13
    16
    11
    Health care
    13
    10
    13
    Federal deficit
    12
    9
    9
    Climate change
    10
    3
    9
    Immigration
    8
    8
    6
    Islamic State
    6
    11
    14
    Terrorism
    5
    7
    9
    Taxes
    4
    3
    3
    18-3536-5556+
    Source: Bloomberg Politics poll (Sept. 18-22, 2015)
  • Millennials are not more likely to say that "occasional acts of terrorism in the U.S. will be part of life in the future." The oldest millennials were 20 on Sept. 11, 2001; the youngest hadn't reached their first birthday.
    Agree Terrorism Will Continue
    Millennial
    73
    Gen X
    79.6
    Boomer
    74.8
    Silent
    76.5
    Source: Pew Research Center (April 2013, data provided to Bloomberg View)

They support large government, but they're not a large part of it.

They support large government, but they're not a large part of it.

  • Millennials are more likely than others to favor "a bigger government providing more services."
    Role of Government
    Millennial
    41
    54
    Gen X
    47
    46
    Boomer
    56
    35
    Silent
    61
    27
    Smaller, fewer servicesBigger, more services
    Source: Pew Research Center (data provided to Bloomberg View)
  • But they disapprove of the government collecting phone and Internet data.
    Government Surveillance Vs. Companies Collecting Data
    55%
    Millennials disapproving of government anti-terrorism data collection (Jan. 2014)
    46%
    Millennials saying Internet companies are unjustified in data collection for advertising (Feb. 2012)
    Source: Pew Research Center (data provided to Bloomberg View)
  • At the beginning of 2015, Congress had far fewer members under 40 than it did four decades ago.
    Members of Congress Under 40
    1975198519952005Jan. 2015020406080 members
    There are currently
    three millennials in Congress.
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau (Table 413), Bloomberg reporting
  • Young adults are also missing from the federal workforce.
    Federal Workers Under 30
    19801990200020100510152025%
    Source: U.S. Office of Personnel Management (data provided to Bloomberg View)
  • Young adults played a crucial role in the 2008 presidential election…
    Voting Rates for Citizen Population
    199620002004200820124050607080%
    18-2930-4445-6465+
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau (Figure 3, data provided to Bloomberg View)
  • … and they will form the largest share of the voting-age population for decades, beginning this year. They have the power to swing the presidential election by turning out to vote — or crush a candidate by staying home.
    The Voting-Age Population
    2000202020402060020406080100%
    When millennials are the largest share
    of the voting-age population
    BoomerGen XMillennialGen ZGen Post-Z
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bloomberg reporting

Methodology

Generations, Defined

Generations are artificial creations. Who's to say that a 34-year-old is anything like a 15-year-old? Or that both of them should be deemed "millennials"? But delineating generational groups can help suggest how the U.S. has changed and will continue to evolve.
Baby boomers tend to be defined as Americans born 1946 to 1964. There's no such consensus for millennials. For our calculations, we chose 1981 as the birth year of the first millennials because that's the starting point the Pew Research Center uses. We selected 2000 as the last birth year, for a neat dividing line. (A 2015 report on "the demographic evolution of the American electorate" used the same definition.) That puts Generation X nestled between boomers and millennials: born 1965 to 1980. Some of the Pew data we used also includes Silents, who precede baby boomers, with birth years 1928 to 1945.
For the generations that follow millennials, we mimicked the millennial generation's 20-year span: Generation Z comprises those born 2001 to 2020, and Generation Post-Z extends 2021 to 2040. As for the names of those future generations, who knows? The millennial generation has also been called Generation Y; "Generation Z" seems to be getting some traction for the next group, but the jury is still out. "Generation Post-Z" is a lame, arbitrary name; we blame X for being so late in the alphabet.

Millennials Are Getting Older

"Millennial" is not synonymous with "young person." Millennials will always be members of the generation but won't always be young. Some of their traits may be more related to being young, or to being alive at a certain moment, than to being millennials; it's impossible to fully differentiate, but examining data over time can help.
Generations are moving targets; the range of ages they encompass changes. Data for a relevant age group can offer insight into a generation, but it's important to recognize its limitations. Data that is for, say, 18- to 29-year-olds in 2012 doesn’t include the oldest and youngest millennials (by our definition), while data for those 18 to 34 in 2013 both doesn't cover the youngest millennials and contains some members of Gen X. Moreover, even where Pew specifically tracks the millennial generation over time, it's only looking at those 18 and older — meaning that, up to this point, another year of the generation has been added to the mix with each subsequent year of polling. Pew has not yet settled on an endpoint for the millennial generation. (All Pew data used includes only adults 18 and older.)

Population Data

For our calculations on the generational shares of the overall and voting-age populations, we used Census estimates sliced by single year of age so as to follow generations over time. For the 2015-2060 data, we relied on data from Census's 2014 national population projections. All data is for the U.S. resident population, with two exceptions: Data prior to 1980 is for the resident population plus armed forces overseas, and data prior to 1950 excludes Alaska and Hawaii. (Because of the format of the Census projection data, starting in 2046 we counted all Americans 100 and over as boomers.)
We also used this data in calculating the ratios of young Americans to working-age Americans and older Americans to working-age Americans. We defined the working-age population as those 18 to 64, as opposed to, say, 15 to 64 — which seems a bit Dickensian.
In examining power at the polls, we looked at the U.S. voting-age population (everyone 18 and over) rather than just eligible voters. Certain subsets of the voting-age population — noncitizens, some felons — cannot vote. A calculation of eligible voters would be more complicated, especially given the possibility of future changes in immigration policy.

How Big Is Big?

Millennials are currently the U.S.’s biggest generation. But the baby boom generation made up a larger chunk of the overall population at its peak (in percentage terms) than the millennial generation did at its. Which is to say: In 1964 baby boomers were 37.8 percent of the U.S. population, while millennials were just 28.6 percent in 2000. Census's Sandra Colby has written: "Despite the larger size of the millennial generation relative to the baby boomers, their transition through the life course has not introduced (and, moving forward, is not as likely to introduce) the same level of shock to societal institutions as the baby boomers caused. This is because the baby boom was marked by large increases in birth cohorts relative to those that had come before. This is not the case for the millennials. The millennials are part of an ongoing trend toward larger birth cohorts that started in the previous generation and has continued into the next."

Party Politics

What’s the difference between identifying with and leaning toward a political party? Here’s how Pew — whose data we used for this — approaches it: To establish party identification, respondents are asked whether they consider themselves Republicans, Democrats or independents. Those who answer that they are independents, have no preference, identify with another party or don't know/refused to answer are then asked whether they lean more to the Republican or Democratic Party. The data underlying the assertion that millennials resist party identification derives from the first question, where a plurality of the generation identifies as independent. The data supporting the conclusion that millennials lean Democratic combines both questions; when adding those who identify as Democratic to those who lean Democratic, the generation lands on the left. Pew has also written that "even those Millennials who do identify as Republicans or lean toward the GOP are decidedly less conservative than older Republicans."

Growing Up

Are millennials delayed on the usual path to adulthood, or will maturity mean something different for this generation? The conventional notion of adulthood is not about age, but rather about classic markers of independence and stability: getting married, buying a house, having kids. Millennials may never buy houses or get married (or have kids?) at the same rates as their predecessors. (Measuring fertility is complicated.) Norms and desires change, and many millennials spent part of their early adult lives buffeted by the Great Recession. To what extent will any changes in attaining traditional "adult" status have derived from necessity versus preference?

Millennial Invincibles

Young people's participation is crucial to Obamacare's success. Millennials won't always be young people, but they have happened to fall into that designation at the law's outset. Looking at the uninsurance rate for 19- to 25-year-olds in recent years sheds light on how millennials have benefited from the health-care law. Indeed, the first beneficiaries of the law's provision allowing young people to be on their parents' plan until age 26 were millennials.
Why are young people important to Obamacare? Because they tend to pay more into insurance pools than they take out. And because they're a significant part of the work still to be done to decrease the overall uninsurance rate: According to U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Sylvia Burwell, going into the third open enrollment period, almost half of people who were uninsured and probably qualified for plans in the Health Insurance Marketplace were 18 to 34.

Children of Terror

It stands to reason that Sept. 11 should be a defining moment in the millennial generation's trajectory. And yet it's difficult to assess how the terrorist attack affected members of the generation: Most were too young to be polled in 2001, and now their thoughts are in retrospect. Likewise, examining attitudes about foreign policy over time can be challenging because current events can influence responses.

Political Engagement

Are young people "turned off to politics" and to running for office? A dearth of historical data on youth political ambition makes predictions about millennials' future in elected office somewhat difficult. And while the average age in both houses of Congress has risen, the U.S.'s population has gotten older, too.
The story of young-adult voting in recent years also isn't seamless. (Unlike in our electorate model, in which we examined the voting-age population, the Census data we used to show voting rates in recent presidential elections looks at turnout in the voting-age citizen population.) Young people voted at a relatively high rate in 2008. Was that a blip or a new pattern? After all, youth turnout was also high in 2004 compared with the prior two presidential elections. It's hard to tell where youth turnout landed in 2012: According to Tufts University's Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, there was a disparity between estimates using exit-poll voting data and using Census voting data (50 percent versus 45 percent turnout, respectively, for those ages 18 to 29). We'll have to see what happens in 2016.

Bloomberg Poll

A Bloomberg Politics poll provided insight in two areas: what Americans "see as the most important issue facing the country right now" and what young Americans view as "the main obstacle" to gun control. The data came from a landline and mobile-phone survey conducted Sept. 18-22 by Selzer & Co., including 402 adults identified as 18 to 35 and 819 other adults.

Acknowledgments

Special thanks to the Pew Research Center, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
Save And Share : Tweet This ! Share On Facebook ! Share On Reddit ! Share On LinkedIn ! Share On Google Buzz ! Share On Digg ! Post To Blogger ! Share On Google Reader ! Google Bookmark ! Send An Email ! Blog Feed !

0 comments:

Post a Comment