The Battle for the Real Estate of the Wrist

The success of the smart watch comes down to the limited available 'real estate' on the wrist. And success in real estate is always about location. So, as the following article suggests, the screen hierarchy should tell us alot about who will win the economic battle. Hint proximity to user indicates greatest potential value to buyer - and thence, developer.JL

Horace Dediu comments in Asymco:

The jostling for position within the constrained real estate on the wrist will be analogous to the competition for positioning on the phone. The winners on the phone were different than the winners on the PC. The winners on the Watch will be different than the winners on the Phone.
The Apple Watch offers a hierarchy of surfaces onto which software can compete for attention:

1. The Complication Layer
2. The Notification Layer
3. The Glances Layer
4. The App Screen

These surfaces are arranged in a hierarchy where the highest is the most accessible and the lowest is the least accessible. In a similar fashion we can consider the hierarchy of screens a person could reasonably be considered to be exposed to:

1. The Watch
2. The Phone
3. The Tablet
4. The TV
5. The Personal Computer
6. The Public/Work Computer

Note that this hierarchy is correlated to the size and hence the portability and persistence of proximity to the user. Each of the screens has its own “surfaces” which expose software to the user with various degrees of ease. For instance the iPhone has Notifications, Control Center, Home Screen, etc. The OS X personal computer has the Desktop, Notifications, the Dashboard, the Browser etc.
It follows then that software which is located at the top of each hierarchy on each device will have the greatest exposure to user interaction and that the device which has the nearest proximity to the user will provide the greatest value to software developers.
This implies further that the most valuable “real estate” for software will be the Complication layer on the Watch.
The software which receives either default placement there or which convinces the highest number of users to opt for placement there will have the greatest potential value. As suggested in my post on how the Watch will be valued, how software will be valued will be by the probability of its Settings being enabled for display on the Watch and its presence within Glances.
The jostling for position within the constrained real estate on the wrist will be analogous to the competition for positioning on the phone. You’ll note that the winners on the phone were different than the winners on the PC. My bet is that the winners on the Watch will be different than the winners on the Phone.
And that’s not a bad thing.