Before the industrial revolution, people were valued for knowing a trade.
However, when machines took over physical labor, those skills became devalued
and most people either performed simple, repetitive tasks or managed those who
did.
By the late 20th century, a
knowledge economy began to take hold. Now, workers’ value lay
not so much in their labor , but in specialized knowledge, much of which was
inscrutable to their superiors. In order to thrive, enterprises had to become
learning organizations.
First
Principles vs. Experience
The true nature of knowledge has been a source of fierce debate for over two
thousand years, beginning with a disagreement between Plato and his most famous
student, Aristotle.
Plato believed in
ideal forms. To him, true knowledge consisted of familiarity
with the forms and virtue (which, in modern terms would be closer to ability
than to morality) was a matter of actualizing the forms in everyday life. Plato
would have felt comfortable as a factory manager whose workers carried out
instructions to the tee.
Aristotle, on the other hand, believed in
empirical
knowledge, that which you gain from experience. In contrast to Plato, we
can imagine Aristotle as a Six Sigma black belt, constantly analyzing data in
order to come up with a better way of doing things.
Both methods, the indoctrination of principles and the collection of data
have played a role in learning organizations. The difference now is that much
of the learning is being taken over by machines.
How Machines Are Learning To
Take Over
Not so long ago, we depended on human knowledge for many things, such as
setting up travel itineraries, trading financial instruments and buying media
that are highly automated today. As we progress, new areas such as making
medical diagnoses,
legal discovery and even
creative output are becoming mediated by computers.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the algorithms blend Platonic and Aristotelian
approaches just like humans do. Initially, their thinking is driven by time
honored principles supplied by human experts (sometimes called “God
parameters”). Then, as more information comes in, the computer begins to learn
from its own mistakes, getting better and better at its task.
This process continues at
accelerating speeds. Much like the rise of the knowledge
economy empowered knowledge workers, because they had expertise that their
bosses didn’t, computers are now
coming up with answers that knowledge workers themselves can’t
understand. That will prove incredibly disruptive in the years to come.
It also presents a particularly thorny problem: How can organizations empower
employees whose skills are being outsourced to the cloud?
Consequences of An Algorithmic
Age
Just as the first industrial revolution transformed business and society,
this new algorithmic age will bring not just efficiency, but significant,
cultural changes. While the future is uncertain, some of the shifts are already
becoming clear:
Bayesian Strategy: The knowledge economy coincided with the rising
influence of business strategists. Highly trained executives would analyze
business conditions and devise intricate plans for the future. Managerial
performance, therefore, was widely evaluated as a function of their ability to
“execute the plan.”
However, good strategy is becoming
less
visionary and more Bayesian. Strategic plans will play a similar role to
“God parameters” that will be honed through an evolutionary
process of simulation and feedback. Strategists, to a great
extent,
will become hackers rather than planners.
Brands as Open API’s: One little noted consequence of the knowledge
economy is the rise of
intangible value, which often far exceeds tangible assets in
corporations. Brands, therefore, became tightly controlled assets that were
nurtured and protected.
That’s changing as
brands are becoming platforms for collaboration rather than
assets to be leveraged. Marketers who used to jealously guard their brands are
now aggressively courting outside developers with
Application Programming Interfaces (API’s) and
Software Development Kits (SDK’s). Our economy is
increasingly becoming a
semantic economy.
Firms ranging from
Microsoft to
Nike to
The New York Times have also created accelerator
programs, where young companies get financial, managerial and technical support
to come up with new innovations (and potentially, enhance the business of their
benefactors).
The Human Touch: While much of the discussion about the rising tide
of technology focuses on cognitive skills,
Richard Florida argues that social skills will be just as
important. Many of the
fastest growing professions are those which emphasize personal
contact.
As computers take over more of the work, the role of humans will increasingly
focus on caring for other humans.
Flying By Wire
Pilots don’t fly planes anymore, not really. Whereas they used to have
direct control over the aircraft, now they
fly by wire.
Today, their instruments connect not to the airplane’s mechanism, but to
computers which carry out their commands, modulated by the
collective intelligence gained from millions of similar
flights.
In essence, pilots perform three roles: they direct intent (where to go, how
fast, when to change course), manage knowledge and (rarely) take over during
emergencies. Professionals in other industries will have to learn to perform
their jobs in a similar way.
The function of organizations in the industrial age was to direct work. The
function of organizations in the algorithmic age will be to
focus
passion and purpose.
Managers, rather than focusing on building skills to recognize patterns and
take action, will need to focus on designing the curricula, to direct which
patterns computers should focus on learning and to what ends their actions
should serve.
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