Advocates on both sides of the question will bludgeon you with data at the click of a button. The challenge is that statistics generated during periods of change are generally indicative of nothing more than the immediate snapshot they represent.
The problem for the platforms and channels is that they are still in advocacy mode. They are selling - hard - and have lots of enablers in the media agencies who are trying to generate interest and revenue by proclaiming a new promised land for marketing. The fact is that there are no comparable, verifiable data - yet. And there are lots of people with a personal interest in convincing the rest of the world one way or the other. As if that werent enough, the financial world is breathlessly awaiting Facebook's IPO, which may well be the richest payday for many in Silicon Valley and Wall Street this year. Needless to say, they are not sitting quietly at home rubbing prayer beads and hoping.
An objective assessment suggests that fans and likes are an indication of familiarity and favorability, which is useful. But converting those inclinations into sales requires considerably more effort - and resources - than the brands and platforms would have anyone else believe. There are data that suggest fans and likers spend more money on brands than do those who are not, but those data are primarily from a couple of consumer-oriented businesses and may not be useful as an extrapolation of broader behavior patterns.
The best advice appears to be to ignore general claims of efficacy. Test, re-test and track trend data over time for your brand or business. Eventually the trend data will provide useful knowledge. Emphasis on the word 'eventually.' JL
Matt Wilson reports in Ragan.com:
Consider this proof that communicating with people on Facebook doesn't end with their clicking the "like" button: On average, only about 7.5 percent of a brand's Facebook fans even see its daily posts, according to PageLever's statistics released over the summer.
For brands with more than 1 million followers, the number's even lower, at fewer than 3 percent. Writing this week at Inc.com, blogger Erik Sherman says those figures prove that customers aren't as willing to interact with brands on social media as many may think. But he also contends that the statistics shouldn't discourage brands from being on social media.
"Design the program right, and a company makes money," he wrote. "However, be realistic about the potential returns so you don't act out of disappointment."
Shel Holtz of Holtz Communications + Technology says a "like" is "fundamentally worthless."
"Let's say I hear about the 'New Yorker' offering access to a new article by Jonathan Franzen, but I have to 'like' the 'New Yorker' page first," he says. "I do, read the article, then never go back. What's that 'like' worth to the magazine, since I'm never going to interact with them again, and their updates aren't going to appear in my news feed?"
Holtz says that, of the forms of engagement on Facebook, Edgerank, the algorithm Facebook uses to rank interaction, puts "likes" at the bottom of the totem pole. Comments, watching videos, viewing photos and voting in polls all rank higher.
"If your goal in getting a 'like' isn't more engagement with that individual, why go after them at all?" he asks. "If it is, then getting the 'like' is just the price of admission. Now you have to engage them in order to reap the benefit."
Carolyn Martin, founder of Social Media Demand, says communicators and marketers should look beyond Facebook to see whether their social media programs are making a connection. Specifically, she says, they should be looking at whether Facebook is driving traffic to the company's website, and how that compares with direct traffic or traffic from search engines.
"All of these trackable methods can lead you to an answer of whether your pages, blogs, and campaigns are working for you," she says.
Another tip Martin offers is to stop worrying so much about how many "likes" you have. Instead, take a look at how many people visit your Facebook page every day, because those are the folks who are really interested in your culture and philosophy.
"If that number … continues to increase then you're delivering useful information," she says. "My business wall gets almost 900 visitors a week, while my fan base is only 250. Not everyone wants to opt in, but that doesn't mean they are not listening."
Sean Williams of CommunicationAMMO says he's not at all surprised by the engagement figures. "There's no way of knowing, really, what the value of a Facebook fan is," he says.
Consider, he says, how many of your own friends' posts you miss on Facebook—and those are your friends. What if you're luring "likes" from people who have no attachment to your brand at all? How does that help the organization?
"When you chase people to just 'like' you for some purpose like a contest, the question is whether you're actually activating these people or not," Williams said. "For a bunch of people, they're not thinking through this at all."
Joe Ciarallo of Buddy Media says he doesn't think Facebook fans are all that passive.
"We've seen examples from our own clients where fans stick around after a deal or coupon is given," he says. "Pretzel Crisps has used Facebook to give its fans discounts multiple times in the last year and has seen its fan base grow and stay engaged."
In addition to doubling its "likes" early last year with buy-one-get-one-free coupons, Pretzel Crisps also grew its sales 131 percent in the weeks after, with a 95 percent redemption rate for the coupons, Ciarallo says. "Then, in September, Pretzel Crisps mobilized those fans with a sweepstakes to introduce two new flavors."
FanReach CEO Brian Carter wrote on AllFacebook that companies shouldn't shy away from "likes"—they mean visibility—but says they should also seek comments. He suggests aiming for a 1 percent feedback rate.
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