A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Apr 28, 2024

Ukrainian Forces Repulse 40 Russia Attacks Around Avdiivka In Past 24 Hours

Once again, it is a testament to the fortitude and leadership of Ukrainian forces that they continue to repel relentless Russian assaults despite the Russians well-advertised advantages. JL 

Kateryna Tshchenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ukrainian forces repelled 40 attacks near Novokalynove, Keramik, Arkhanhelske, Umanske, Sokil, Ocheretyne, Kalynove, Soloviove, Novopokrovske, Novoselivka Persha and Semenivka where the Russians tried to drive Ukrainian troops away from their positions. The Russians also launched airstrikes near Oleksandropil and Ocheretyne. Over 10 settlements, including Arkhanhelske, Sokil and Novopokrovske, were struck by Russian artillery and mortars. On the Novopavlivka front, Ukrainian forces continue to hold the Russians back near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Vodiane, Novomykhailivka and Urozhaine where Russians, supported by aircraft, tried to break through Ukrainian defences 11 times

Ukraine Converts Single Engine Sport Planes Into Long Range Drones

Video cameras connected to operators via satellite, GPS, an extra fuel tank, a 220 pound bomb. And boom! JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Ukraine has transformed another sport plane into a long-range strike drone. One crashed inside Russia more than 600 miles from the Russia-Ukraine border. The airframe is an adaptation, available pre-built, or as a kit the buyer assembles at home. It sports an electro-optical video camera that helps a remote operator, connected to the drone via satellite, steer the drone into its target. It packs a 220-pound bomb under its belly rather than inside its cabin (which) might imply it could drop its bomb and return home. The Nynja is similar to Ukraine’s other drone sport plane, which, on April 2, packed with explosives rammed into a facility that produces Shahed Drones, 600 miles from the Ukrainian border.

Dubious AI-Washing Jams Tech Gadgets Whether It Works Or Users' Need It, Want It

Ear buds, computer mouse(s), laptops, mobile phones: AI and/or Gen AI is coming to every device consumers' own or covet, whether it contributes anything to functionality, productivity or not. 

The Silicon Valley hype machine has now determined that AI is an absolute necessity for selling (if not actually operating) tech devices. It is being jammed into everything. There is no question but that sometime soon, refrigerators and microwaves will feature it - at elevated prices and profit margins, of course. The concern is that since most AI and Gen AI applications are still confounding multi-billion dollar corporations, the average consumer is unlikely to be able to employ it usefully. Given tech's abject failure with the metaverse, it is hoped the AI overhype will soon cease, but not before millions of customers pay for features they don't need - and that don't work. JL

Scharon Harding reports in ars technica:

AI marketing hype, if not AI washing, is barraging tech announcements. Common sense will yield skepticism that stops some of the worst so-called AI gadgets from misleading people (but) AI will continue becoming a bigger part of tech gadgets' marketing points, especially devices targeting those who are eager to own the latest but have varied understandings of what AI can do and its relevance for them. There are times when AI can improve a gadget. But over the next months and years, expect more devices that aren't necessarily better with AI integration will advertise questionable features related to the tech.

Ukraine Destroys Russian Air Defenses In Crimea

The implication is that Ukraine is going to continue to attack Russian installations in Crimea using missiles, drones and planes in order to further degrade Russian logistical and defensive capabilities on the occupied peninsula. JL 

Aliss Higham reports in Newsweek:

Ukraine struck Russian air defenses with tactical ballistic missiles in Cape Tarkhankut, the western tip of Crimea. Ukraine previously destroyed a Russian S-400 air-defense system in Cape Tarkhankut on August 23, 2023. "Given the limited number of such systems in the enemy's arsenal, this is a painful blow to their air-defense system." Earlier in April 2024, Ukraine struck a large Russian airfield in Dzhankoi, Crimea. That attack was the first time U.S. provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) missiles were used by Ukrainian forces. It is not yet known if the attack in Cape Tarkhankut used ATACMS.

Ukraine Has Held Its Own As Its New Aid Renews Threat To Russian Forces

For six months, Russia has attacked Ukrainian positions, knowing their adversary lacked ammunition and reinforcements. And despite that, the Russians have repeatedly failed to change the strategic military calculus. 

With new aid resuming and expected to begin reaching the front this week, Russian forces will again face a more risky, threatening combat environment. JL 

Missy Ryan and Siobhan O'Grady report in the Washington Post:

Ukraine has done well despite continued Russian attacks: defending Ukraine’s north and east, where Kyiv has permitted only limited Russian gains in the past year; keeping crucial shipping lanes open in the Black Sea while putting Russia’s naval fleet on the defensive; and threatening the Kremlin’s hold on occupied Crimea. 2024 is primarily a defensive year for Ukraine, but (holds) the promise of new capabilities; a long-awaited influx of U.S. weapons will help Ukraine to blunt Russia’s advance in the coming months. "Russia, after years in this war, has not found a way to substantially take advantage of Ukrainian weaknesses.”

Why Ukraine Is Preventing Breakthroughs Despite Russia's Current Advantage

Russia is likely to make tactical gains in the Avdiivka region in the near term, but will - again - prove incapable of exploiting its materiel and manpower advantage into an operationally significant breakthrough. 

The reason is that the poor quality of Russian equipment, training and leadership have not improved enough to overcome the growing increase in Ukrainian ammunition, supplies and new recruits. JL 

Yuri Zoria reports in Euromaidan Press:

Russia has opportunities to make tactical gains in the Avdiivka area. (But) these efforts are unlikely to develop into an operationally significant penetration in the near term, nor are they expected to cause the collapse of the Ukrainian defensive line in Donetsk. Russian forces are also unlikely to mount a summer offensive significantly larger and more intense than previous efforts. Well-provisioned Ukrainian forces have historically thwarted Russian advances, even on the tactical level, during large-scale offensives. The Russian military's limitations in deploying modern and effective equipment in Ukraine, lead to a decline in combat effectiveness due to degradation in Russian formations and units.

Apr 27, 2024

Ukrainian Drones Hit Russian Airfield, Refineries In Krasnodar, Almost 1,000 Km Away

Long range Ukrainian drones hit a Russian military airfield and oil refineries in the Krasnodar region.

Work at the refineries had to be suspended. JL  

Olga Voitovych and Loren Said-Morehouse report in CNN:

Ukraine launched drone attacks on Russia’s Kushchevsk military airfield in the southern Krasnodar region, as well as two oil refineries. Fires broke out at the three locations.The Security Service of Ukraine “continues to effectively hit military and infrastructure facilities” in Russia in a bid to reduce Moscow’s “potential for warfare.” TASS reported that the oil refinery in Slavyansk-on-Kuban had partially suspended operations. Work at the plant had been “partially suspended” after 10 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) flew into the refinery, causing a fire to break out.